Congolese political upheaval will fuel unrest

Significance The Council’s decision came as a fragile political agreement struck at the new year unravels, with security deteriorating in several parts of the country. The spike in unrest drew international attention when the UN confirmed that two experts conducting research on mass graves in Kasai were found slain after being abducted with their Congolese colleagues just days before the Council’s vote. Impacts The United States appears indifferent to the UN mission and may play a limited role if turmoil escalates. Opposition splits could limit the salience of political violence while further fragmenting the security environment. Unrest related to the political standoff is currently not affecting the main mining regions. Chances for holding credible, inclusive and legitimate elections this year appear remote.

Significance A report released by international NGO Global Witness in January found that violence against such individuals was growing, and was frequently linked to vested interests in the political and military spheres. While the murder of high-profile indigenous activist Berta Caceres last March -- cited in Amnesty International's Annual Report released yesterday -- prompted the government to pledge a crackdown on such violence, the trend does not yet appear to be reversing. Impacts A new anti-corruption accord with the Organization of American States should underpin Hernandez’s domestic security credentials. Increased criminal deportations from the United States could have a serious impact on security. The international attention generated by Global Witness may encourage the Mission against Corruption and Impunity to shift its priorities.


1991 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 14-16
Author(s):  
David Rymph ◽  
Linda Little

Washington, D.C., like many major cities in the U.S., has experienced a large influx of illegal immigrants in the past decade. Hundreds of thousands of Hispanics have entered the United States, many of them fleeing from the political violence in Guatemala and El Salvador. The Washington metropolitan area may have as many as 80,000 refugees from El Salvador alone.


Significance The decision followed the devastation caused by Hurricane Matthew, which struck the country on October 4, killing hundreds. With estimates of casualties and property damage still being revised upwards, it is unclear when the electoral authorities will be in a position to reschedule the much-delayed elections. Impacts The United States will push for elections to be rescheduled quickly, as it was opposed to the rerun in the first place. However, holding elections too quickly would be controversial, as it would risk disenfranchising displaced voters. Popular anger at the devastation will be ultimately channelled into frustration with the political paralysis. The crisis could drive up attempted migration to the Dominican Republic and the United States.


Significance In the wake of the terrorist attacks in Paris, the political debate on law enforcement 'going dark' due to encryption has resurfaced again in the United States and United Kingdom. However, governments have yet to demonstrate evidence of a loss of security capability because of encryption. Impacts The 'going dark' debate may be being used to distract from security agencies' existing surveillance capabilities. The debate's outcome could have a severe negative effect on consumer trust in internet-based businesses. Businesses will see opportunities in relocation to jurisdictions with robust laws that do not weaken cryptographic systems.


Significance The National Liberation Front (FLN) and Democratic National Rally (RND) received the most seats, as expected, amid widespread voter apathy. Impacts The government will continue its austerity strategy in response to the low oil price, and face more social tension and protests. The young generation will lose even more trust in the political system and opt for protest, resignation and emigration. The supporters of security and economic cooperation with the United States within the regime were strengthened.


Significance Kurz has said he wants a coalition agreement by the end of the month -- probably with the far-right populist Freedom Party (FPOe). Impacts Austria is likely to push for EU reforms on migration, border controls and social welfare benefits. The SPOe is struggling to find a niche in the party system and could face a long spell in opposition. The FPOe's rise to a potential government role will attract unwanted international attention. The political elite could be rejuvenated as younger Kurz supporters are promoted to top jobs in ministries and parliament.


2007 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 20-23
Author(s):  
Rachel Adler

Conducting research among immigrants in the United States can pose ethical problems not encountered by anthropologists working abroad. Research occurs, of course, in the context of a political milieu. When anthropologists are working outside of their own societies, it is easier to dissociate themselves from the political sphere. This is because foreign anthropologists are not expected to embrace the political rhetoric of societies of which they are only observers. Ethnographers inside the U.S., on the other hand, often become politicized, regardless of their academic intentions.


Significance Climate policy will be of high international attention in the lead up to the UN's climate change summit in Paris in December (COP 21). The political and economic climate makes it more likely that a multinational deal can be reached than at the 2009 Copenhagen summit. While unseen difficulties could intercede, doubt now revolves around the nature of a deal, rather than whether a deal will be reached. Impacts Even weak national targets will result in more regulation for carbon-intensive businesses and more incentives for low-carbon technologies. A deal could have serious implications for high-cost, energy-intensive extractors in the tar sands and shale oil sectors. Coal-only companies will see little room for growth in developed countries. Shipping and aviation were left out of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol but will be included this time.


Significance This is the latest in a series of deadly terrorist attacks attributed to al-Shabaab since late July hitting high-profile targets in Mogadishu. The militant group is succeeding in carrying out these strikes as the country prepares for a political transition. Impacts The United States and other Western backers of the Somali government will step up security support to safeguard the elections. Al-Shabaab will accelerate complex attacks into November aimed at soft targets. The attacks will fail to disrupt upcoming indirect elections but could undermine confidence in security and the political process.


Subject The prospects for finalising TTIP. Significance While the EU as a whole -- the European Commission, most member states and a majority of members of the European Parliament (EP) -- appears to remain committed to a wide-ranging agreement with the United States, there are growing indications that public opposition may render the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement politically unviable. Impacts TTIP is estimated to raise the EU's GDP by 0.5%. European governments may decide that such a modest growth boost is not worth the political problems generated by the negotiations. If implemented, its terms could serve as a blueprint for future trade agreements between the EU and other countries. The deal's prospects will be diminished by the US election cycle's appeals to protectionist sentiment.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document