Apathy will weaken Central African bloc's rescue plan
Subject Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) fiscal and monetary pressures Significance Individual member commitment to a CEMAC recovery and reforms programme agreed in December is uneven, with only Gabon and Cameroon signing up to new IMF programmes so far. Equatorial Guinea and the Republic of the Congo -- the two most severely hit countries -- are still locked in protracted negotiations with the Fund, the latter because of its current debt default dilemma. This could prolong pressure on the beleaguered CFA franc (CFAF), which is facing renewed regional and international calls for abolition. Impacts Forthcoming parliamentary elections in Gabon in April could temporarily stall reforms under its Fund arrangement. Upgrades to Congo's credit ratings are unlikely before a court ruling on disputed arrears. Significant security risks in half the region -- particularly Cameroon, CAR and Chad -- could sideline reforms even with full compliance.