EU plastics strategy will hinge on public concern

Subject The EU’s plastic waste strategy. Significance The European Commission on January 16 published a strategy for tackling plastic waste, setting a goal of making all plastic packaging recyclable by 2030. The strategy comes amid growing concerns about the damage caused by plastic pollution, particularly to the marine environment, and a ban by the Chinese government on imports of certain types of waste including several plastics. Impacts Meeting the Commission’s goals for recycling could cost between 8 and 16 billion euros over the next 30 years. Greater investments in recycling could generate 200,000 jobs in the sector across the EU. North-western EU members may be best placed to take advantage of opportunities arising from greater emphasis on recycling.

Subject The possible economic impact of the EU investment plan (the 'Juncker Plan'). Significance The EU investment plan launched by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker just over a year ago has made a slow start. This will encourage doubts that have existed since the scheme's inception about its operation and likely impact. Impacts Even by 2020, the EU economy will still probably require every effort to boost growth and make up for lost investment. Given continuing strong demand for high-grade bonds and equity investments, it should be possible to achieve the fundraising target. The plan could become a vehicle for Chinese investment into the EU: China is talking of 5-10 billion euros in future investments. The geographical distribution of funded projects could be politically sensitive within the EU. The plan could come under scrutiny during the UK EU referendum campaign; UK projects may come too late to have an impact before the vote.


Subject Russian influence in Bosnia. Significance Russia seems much more adept at playing the Balkan political game than the EU or the United States. Thanks to that and the gradual weakening of Bosnia’s EU perspective, Russia has managed to fill the EU vacuum and establish influence over Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) with a minimum of investment. Impacts BiH could achieve EU candidate status in 2019 if it can satisfy the European Commission that it is meeting required conditions. The EU’s much stronger economic relations with Balkan states will limit Russian influence. Russia’s presence in both Bosnia and Serbia will continue to take the form solely of being able to influence Serbs.


Subject Proposed reform of the EU comitology procedure. Significance The little-known ‘comitology’ procedure plays a key role in EU regulation. In recent years, this process has been breaking down as member-state expert representatives in comitology committees often abstain from voting, forcing the European Commission to take controversial decisions on its own (and accept any blame for them). In response, the Commission has proposed reforms that would pressure member states to take a position on (and hence political ownership of) controversial regulatory decisions. Impacts Government representatives, interest-group representatives and corporate lobbyists will be most affected by comitology reform. Despite adding transparency and avoiding blame-shifting to Brussels, the reforms would probably not help the EU’s image with citizens. The European Parliament might demand -- as part of any final reform package -- an increase in its involvement in the comitology process.


Subject Prospects for the EU dropping China from its NME list. Significance On July 19, European Commission officials presented their plan to tackle the expiry on December 11 of a provision in China's WTO accession protocol, which allows WTO members to derogate from regular anti-dumping rules towards China. The EU has used this derogation to classify China as a 'non-market economy' (NME) in its anti-dumping regulation. Such status requires the application of the 'analogue country' methodology for dumping calculation. Pursuant to it, Chinese export prices are not compared to the price of Chinese products on their domestic market, but to the price of the product concerned in a comparable market economy. This generates higher dumping margins and duties than under the regular methodology. Impacts The upcoming proposal is unlikely to close the debate between opponents to and supporters of China's MES. Under pressure from some businesses, the EU may apply a non-standard methodology for dumping calculation after December 11. This new methodology may give rise to legal challenges and be questioned in the longer term. Clarity on this matter is unlikely before the fourth quarter given the way the EU works.


Significance The EP's move gives parliamentary backing to the effort to develop common EU drone rules. The report advanced nothing novel, but will both encourage and put pressure on the European Commission to act. EU agreement on regulations governing drone use in controlled airspace and for commercial purposes would be a key step in expanding drone construction and services. Impacts The emergence of a comprehensive regulatory framework will trigger the full commercialisation of drone operations. The EP report will increase pressure on the European Commission and EU states to find funding to support drone technological development. The EU will seek to establish enough of a common regime to encourage development without so much 'red tape' as to deter investment. Regulators must also balance safety and privacy concerns against industry pressure to allow wider exploitation of the technology. Achieving the international 2028 target for full airspace integration will require resolution of several technological issues.


Subject European Commission concerns about the rule of law in Poland. Significance The Commission has sent a formal Opinion to the Polish government, activating the first stage in the EU's 'Rule of Law Framework'. It expresses concerns about respect for the rule of law in Poland (a fundamental founding value of the EU), and in particular about the Polish government's handling of the crisis over the Constitutional Tribunal (TK, for Trybunał Konstytucyjny) Impacts Poland's EU position is likely to suffer as a result of the dispute, making it more difficult for it to achieve other political goals. Polish politics will remain unsettled and polarised, with the opposition using the Commission's Opinion to challenge the government. Legal uncertainty may translate into lower investment by individuals and enterprises dampening economic growth in the medium-to-long term.


Significance The European Commission is reviewing the EU regulatory framework for telecoms. In reforming the framework, and adjudicating on current telecoms mergers, policymakers face a tension between two priorities: promoting international competitiveness and investment, which generally entails market consolidation and incumbent power; and maintaining competition in national markets, which typically involves liberalisation and tough antitrust policies. Impacts With Deutsche Telekom becoming BT's largest shareholder as a result of the latter's EE acquisition, closer ties are likely in coming years. A full takeover is a possibility after the lapse of the three-year restriction on Deutsche Telekom increasing its 12% BT stake. This would require a shift in stance from the EU competition authorities, given their misgivings over more modest telecoms concentrations.


Significance The celebration came just days before the United Kingdom is set to begin the withdrawal process. Precisely what path the EU will take over the next decade remains uncertain and the European Commission has kicked off a process of dialogue on various scenarios for its future. Impacts Debates about the future of the EU will occur simultaneously with Brexit negotiations and be coloured by them. EU leaders will be keen to continue to demonstrate their commitment to press forward with European integration despite Brexit. Brexit will not lead to an unravelling of the EU and thus far has served to enhance support for the Union in other member states. Yet Brexit will not lead to any sudden deepening of integration.


Subject Polish/EU frictions. Significance The European Commission has taken the unprecedented step of warning of a "clear risk" of a serious breach of the rule of law in Poland. Many in Brussels and Poland hoped that the appointment of a young prime minister and a major cabinet reshuffle signalled a rapprochement. On early evidence, at least, they may be sorely disappointed. Impacts Poland’s position in the EU will become more constrained as the rule-of-law conflict is exploited in negotiations on unrelated issues. In openly censuring Poland, the EU sees an opportunity to prove its credentials as a bulwark against populism and extremism. If Poland is pushed too far, the EU’s actions may undesirably strengthen anti-EU sentiments in one of its largest member states.


Significance Proposed measures include a plan outlined by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in September, wherein the EU would oblige technology firms to remove terrorist and extremist content within one hour of being notified by the authorities or face fines of up to 4% of their annual turnover. Impacts Social media firms will invest more in automated filters -- regardless of their drawbacks. Removing extremist online content may impair law enforcement work by limiting their access to relevant materials and networks. Terrorist and extremist outfits will adapt to evade filters.


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