Sisi seeks Egyptian economic takeoff in his next term

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Preliminary Results ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Borrowing

Significance Preliminary results suggest that President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has won re-election with 91% of the vote. Western media and diplomats estimate turnout hovered around 20%, though Egyptian site Youm7 reported yesterday that 23 million of 59 million eligible voters cast their ballot, bringing turnout to 39%. After the formality of his re-election for a second term is completed, Sisi is looking to his cabinet to set the conditions for a surge in economic growth over the next four years. Impacts Further cuts to subsidies are in the pipeline; inflation and interest rates remain high, although they have passed their peaks. Foreign exchange reserves are at record levels, but increased borrowing made a major contribution, and heavy debt repayments are now due. The government seeks more foreign investment in projects and equities to replace external borrowing as the main source of capital inflows.

scholarly journals ANCAMAN CAPITAL INFLOW

INFORMASI ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Teguh Sihono ◽  
Rohaila Yusof
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Capital Inflow ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Capital Assets ◽  
The Government

Capital inflow can be interpreted as an increase in the amount of money available from external or foreign sources for the purchase of local capital assets such as securities, houses, buildings, land, machinery. These short-term asset purchase, so if at any time be withdrawn in large quantities, it will endanger the country's economy. The swift flow of foreign funds may be a threat to the country which became the capital inflow in the form of options: pressure of inflation, high cost economy, the defisit Central Bank balance, the economic turbulence, and the threat of economic growth. Improvement of high economic growth accompanied by rising foreign exchange reserves that high also, it turns out is not free from the risk of unbridled inflation and economic cricis, destabilizing the economy during those funds withdrawn by foreign investors. For the avoidance of economic risk, should the government together with the Central Bank made a rule to direct capital inflow into the real sektor. Keywords: capital inflows, global likuiditas

Australian central bank holds rate as growth slips

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Lenders ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.

The impact of foreign capital inflows on economic growth and employment in Egypt

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 258-276
Author(s):  
Hanan AbdelKhalik Abouelfarag ◽  
Mohamed Sayed Abed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Aggregate Model ◽  
Employment Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Capital Inflows ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to trace the effects of both foreign direct investment (FDI) and external debt on economic growth and employment in Egypt over the 1985–2014 period. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis includes three stages: an aggregate time series analysis, a panel model that includes six economic sectors and a set of single-sector models. The “autoregressive distributed lag” approach is utilized either in the time series or in the panel models. Findings The empirical results of this research reveal that foreign investment exerts a weak positive effect on economic growth and employment in Egypt. External debt exerts an insignificant effect on economic growth and employment in the aggregate model. The sectoral analysis reveals that the effect varies greatly between sectors; the effect of FDI on output is positive in the financial, tourism and other service sectors, while it is insignificant in the agricultural, construction and manufacturing sectors. Practical implications It is important not to depend on external debt as an easy way to obtain capital. Greater efforts should be exerted to increase the absorptive capacity of the Egyptian economy so as to benefit from the positive spillover effect of foreign investment as much as possible. Originality/value With respect to Egypt, very limited studies have focussed on the role of external debt on growth and that of FDI and external debt on the employment level. There is no general agreement concerning the effect of FDI on economic growth. Therefore, this research explores the effect of FDI and external debt on the Egyptian economy utilizing both aggregate and sectoral data.

scholarly journals Economic growth effect of private capital inflows: a structural VAR approach for Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Friday Osemenshan Anetor
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Research Result ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Private Capital ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of shocks in the various components of private capital inflows on economic growth in Nigeria using quarterly data in the period 1986Q1–2016Q4. Design/methodology/approach The study employs the impulse response function and the forecast error variance decomposition of the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. Findings The research result shows that shocks in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and portfolio investment inflows have a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. In addition, FDIs accounted for significant variation in the growth of the Nigerian economy followed by portfolio investments, while personal remittances exerted the least variation in growth. Practical implications The government should promote a favorable macroeconomic environment for existing and potential foreign investors to ensure the continued inflows of FDI and portfolio investment. Originality/value The novelty of this study lies in disaggregating private capital inflows and analyzing the effect of the shock of each component on the growth of the Nigerian economy using SVAR.

Political uncertainty will deter investment in Fiji

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ethnic Populations ◽  
Regional Demand ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Fiji. Significance Fiji has returned to political stability and a degree of international legitimacy in recent years, albeit in a context of poor to moderate economic growth. GDP growth of 4.0 % is forecast for 2015, but the outlook for Fiji's main industries (tourism, gold and services) remains stagnant as aggregate regional demand for resources slumps and Fiji's comparative advantage as a regional services hub erodes. Impacts The government will actively promote FDI to boost Fiji's lacklustre economic growth prospects. The government will promote agriculture and fisheries to provide opportunities for disadvantaged rural and ethnic populations. Foreign investment in tourism will probably increase slowly as demand from Asian countries grows. Fiji's dominance in the South Pacific economy will likely diminish as advances in ICT allow it to be bypassed. Ways must be found to prevent loss of trained and educated personnel if Fiji is to maintain its central role.

scholarly journals A Simulation Analysis of the Debt Problem in Pakistan

1998 ◽  
Vol 37 (4II) ◽  
pp. 355-376
Author(s):  
Eatzaz Ahmad ◽  
Ayaz Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Domestic Saving ◽  
Saving Rate ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Borrowing

The current debt situation in Pakistan and the resulting financial crisis require serious attempts to find a sustainable indigenous solution. As such it is essential to search ways and means to reduce dependence on external borrowing over medium to long run.1 External debt is usually created to sustain a growth rate of the economy, which is otherwise not feasible with the given state of domestic resources, technology, consumption propensity and economic management practices. However, the success of economic growth financed by external borrowing depends on two factors, namely the domestic saving rate and productivity. A country with lower saving rate needs to borrow more to finance a given rate of economic growth. In Pakistan the flow of external loans is likely to have adversely affected the compulsion for savings. For example, no serious attempts have been made to improve tax collection or to control non-development government expenditure unless forced by the donor agencies. The adverse effect of borrowing on savings has recently been observed in [Ali et al. (1997)]. The evidence also does not support the proposition that higher rate of economic growth results in higher saving rate [see Ali et al. (1997)]. The saving rate in the private sector of Pakistan has remained low because of low real interest rates and the lack of legitimate and safe investment opportunities. Furthermore the poor and middle-income classes have been burdened with high inflation tax and no serious efforts have been made to tax the rich. Saving rate in the government sector has been deteriorating due to exponential growth in the size of this sector and extraordinarily low productivity. Government has ventured in the territories where it had no business in the first place.

High US government debt does not itself raise risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Business Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Deficit Spending ◽  
The Government

Significance Some economists are suggesting that, over the longer term, this could cause financial markets to stop buying US debt and charge prohibitively high rates, and cause the dollar to crash. Other economists argue that more deficit spending could fuel output and so keep relative debt levels in check. Impacts The government retirement trust funds will continue to be major buyers of government debt. In the recovery and beyond, financing the debt could raise private borrowing costs, reduce business investment and slow economic growth. High and rising debt might constrain policymakers in their ability to respond to unforeseen events. A higher debt path that boosts interest rates would give the Federal Reserve more flexibility in implementing monetary policy.

Nigeria Eurobonds will ease short-term budget pressure

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Special Drawing ◽  
Special Drawing Rights ◽  
External Borrowing

Significance This comes a month after the National Assembly approved an external borrowing plan of USD6.2bn in August. Also, the IMF has approved the allocation of USD3.35bn in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to boost Nigeria’s foreign reserves. Combined, these have provided a modest boost to Nigeria’s faltering foreign-exchange reserves. Impacts The proceeds from the Eurobonds sale will form a significant part of funding the 2022 budget. The Eurobonds and SDR allocation, by boosting reserves, could help narrow the gap between formal and informal exchange rates. There will likely be another Eurobond sale in 2022 as well as more multilateral and bilateral loans. Nigeria’s weak tax collection infrastructure will not generate substantially improved revenues from expected growth.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic impacts of fiscal shocks on the Moroccan economy: a disaggregated SVAR analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Youssef Alami ◽  
Issam El Idrissi ◽  
Ahmed Bousselhami ◽  
Radouane Raouf ◽  
Hassane Boujettou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fiscal Shocks

PurposeThe present paper aims to evaluate the structural impact of exogenously induced fiscal shocks on the Moroccan economy. This entails an analysis of the effect on the GDP of COVID-19-induced fiscal shocks manifesting in terms of budgetary revenues and expenditures. A key aspect of this analysis addresses the size of the tax and fiscal multipliers.Design/methodology/approachThe study examines the structural relationship between five variables during the period between Q1 2009 and Q2 2020 using an SVAR approach that allows for a dynamic interaction between ordinary expenditures and revenues on a quarterly basis.FindingsPositive structural shocks on public spending are likely to negatively impact economic growth. Negative economic growth, in turn, will damage price levels and interest rates, mainly over the long term. However, public-revenue-multiplier-associated shocks exceed these price- and interest-rate multiplier-associated shocks. Indeed, a structural shock to ordinary revenues can have a positive but insignificant impact on the GDP stemming from the ensuing decrease in the government budget deficit that proceeds from the increase in government revenues.Originality/valueThis is one of the first studies in the Moroccan context to assess the impact of the current worldwide pandemic on public finances. In addition, this study highlights the importance of boosting economic recovery through public spending.

Contentious mining reform could boost Panama's economy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Gold Mining ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Project ◽  
The Government

Subject The outlook for mining reform. Significance In June, the government of Panama announced the completion of the environmental impact assessment for the Cerro Quema gold mining project. This means that it may go ahead by the end of the year, despite uncertainty surrounding legislation in the mining sector and ongoing discussions regarding a number of potential framework reforms. Impacts New legislation could lead to renewed protests, particularly in areas with major deposits. Greater certainty in the mining sector could encourage renewed foreign investment. Mining could help diversify Panama's economy and stimulate economic growth over the medium term.

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