SADC reform imperatives face multiple challenges

Subject SADC reform potential Significance Between September and February, new presidents came to power in South Africa, Angola and Zimbabwe, three key Southern African Development Community (SADC) states. In the latter two, the outgoing presidents has held power for nearly four decades each. The stagnation this imposed on their countries also affected SADC. New leaders could take the organisation forward, but it is not clear whether they have the appetite for this in the face of formidable domestic and regional obstacles. Impacts A likely third-term bid by Zambia’s President Edgar Lungu will present SADC with difficulties over whether to publicly censure a member. Potentially heightened DRC refugee outflows will be a major concern for neighbouring states. Burundi's accession bid will increase scrutiny of SADC's democratic credentials given President Pierre Nkurunziza's contentious rule.

Significance The military intervention, which the army insists is not a 'coup', followed a week after Mugabe controversially dismissed Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa after allegations by First Lady Grace Mugabe that the vice president was a “coup plotter”. Domestic mediators are reportedly meeting Mugabe and urging the intransigent incumbent to step down after 37 years in power. Impacts Were Grace Mugabe to flee into exile, this would effectively end her hopes of succeeding her husband. The Southern African Development Community (SADC), in particular South Africa, will likely take the international lead in the transition. An immediate priority for a new administration will be tackling the worsening cash crunch afflicting the economy.


Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.


Significance A press conference after the meeting saw a succession of cabinet ministers praise Angola’s long-serving president. However, despite the show of unity, dos Santos's rumoured ill-health has revealed new fissures within the ruling party. Impacts Lourenco could struggle to impose his authority on dos Santos-affiliated entities such as state-owned oil firm Sonangol. African Union and Southern African Development Community (SADC) observers are likely to trumpet a ‘free and fair’ poll. While the EU may criticise the government's handling of the election, the absence of European monitors will make this largely symbolic. Ruling party divisions could spread to other state entities, including a resurgent Angolan military.


Significance Meanwhile, a recent court decision surrounding a long-running debt scandal will make it more difficult for Maputo to secure external budgetary support and ensure that state-owned hydrocarbons company Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH) can participate in LNG investments without being 'carried' by investors. Impacts Politically motivated violence will likely escalate as internal FRELIMO divisions worsen ahead of its 2022 party congress. Recent progress on demobilising former RENAMO rebels will boost hopes of entrenching the peace settlement. A coordinated Southern African Development Community (SADC) counterinsurgency strategy for Cabo Delgado is unlikely for now.


Subject Burundi's political outlook. Significance On April 25, the ruling National Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) celebrated the fourth anniversary of President Pierre Nkurunziza’s 2015 decision to seek another presidential term -- a move that plunged the country into crisis. The celebrations featured fulsome tributes to the president’s visionary leadership and stern warnings against any who would disrupt the country’s progress. This raises fears that the party may be preparing to present the president as its flagbearer again in 2020. Impacts A renewed push to join the Southern African Development Community may aim to offset wider isolationism, but such efforts will likely fail. Domestic tensions could spill over regionally, especially vis-à-vis Rwanda and the two nations’ de facto proxy war in Congo. Armed opposition groups may also step up their attacks, especially if further pressure mounts on their rear bases in Congo.


Subject Congo election preview. Significance On December 23, Congo is scheduled to hold much-delayed polls after which President Joseph Kabila has vowed to step down. Anticipation is running high; so are political tensions. Impacts The Constitutional Court, which is stacked with Kabila loyalists, could cancel the polls if it looks like the opposition is winning. If elections are postponed, Kabila will remain in power until an elected president can take over. Recent statements by the Southern African Development Community suggest it remains vigilant and could exert pressure for credible polls.


2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 406-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quentin E. Williams ◽  
Christopher Stroud

A major challenge facing South Africa is that of reconstructing a meaningful and inclusive notion of citizenship in the aftermath of its apartheid past and in the face of narratives of divisiveness that reach back from this past and continue to reverberate in the present. Many of the problems confronting South African social transformation are similar to the rest of the postcolonial world that continues to wrestle with the inherited colonial divide between citizen and subject. In this article, we explore how engagement with diversity and marginalization is taking place across a range of non-institutional and informal political arenas. Here, we elaborate on an approach towards the linguistic practices of the political everyday in terms of a notion of linguistic citizenship and by way of conclusion argue that the contradictions and turmoils of contemporary South Africa require further serious deliberation around alternative notions of citizenship and their semiotics.


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