Angolan elections may prompt ruling MPLA ruptures

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Press Conference ◽  
African Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
The Eu

Significance A press conference after the meeting saw a succession of cabinet ministers praise Angola’s long-serving president. However, despite the show of unity, dos Santos's rumoured ill-health has revealed new fissures within the ruling party. Impacts Lourenco could struggle to impose his authority on dos Santos-affiliated entities such as state-owned oil firm Sonangol. African Union and Southern African Development Community (SADC) observers are likely to trumpet a ‘free and fair’ poll. While the EU may criticise the government's handling of the election, the absence of European monitors will make this largely symbolic. Ruling party divisions could spread to other state entities, including a resurgent Angolan military.

Comoros referendum raises new backsliding fears

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
African Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Negotiated Settlement ◽  
Union Of The Comoros ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The highly contentious vote has been described by opposition parties as a dictatorial power grab by Union of the Comoros President Azali Assoumani. Impacts The African Union (AU) and the UN will intensify efforts to broker a negotiated settlement. Pressure could grow on the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which Comoros is scheduled to join, to intervene. Moheli and Anjouan could experience renewed separatist sentiment and a potential breakdown in cooperation with the central government. The authorities may intensify anti-graft proceedings against Azali's critics, including detained former President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi.

Recent Developments in the Regulation of Investor-State Dispute Resolution: Any Lessons for the Southern African Development Community?

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 180-204
Author(s):  
Lawrence Ngobeni ◽  
Babatunde Fagbayibo
Keyword(s):  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Area ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
African Union ◽  
Foreign Investments ◽  
African Development ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
Recent Developments

Abstract In 2016, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) amended Annex 1 of the SADC Protocol on Finance and Investment (FIP) in order to remove investor access to international arbitration or Investor-State Dispute Resolution (ISDS). The recent formation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Agreement (T-FTA) are factors that will likely curtail SADC’s ability to regulate foreign investments. Both AfCFTA and T-FTA are supposed to have their own investment protocols. This means that SADC faces the loss of regulatory authority over foreign investments. The recent formation of the Pan African Investment Code (PAIC) has shown that some African Union (AU) Member States want to provide ISDS for their investors, while others including SADC Members States do not. This article intends to evaluate the lessons SADC can learn from other jurisdictions in terms of the effective regulation of ISDS.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

Turkish-EU migrant policies will continue to diverge

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Press Conference ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Angela Merkel ◽  
The Eu

Significance German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said Germany is "ready to offer support" on four Turkish demands in return for cooperating with the EU in the migrant crisis. At a joint press conference in Istanbul yesterday, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu repeated Ankara's four conditions for implementing an action plan against the influx of Syrian refugees into Europe. It wants more EU aid for those refugees inside Turkey; three chapters opened in Turkey's EU accession negotiations; visa liberalisation for Turks travelling to the EU; and a seat for Turkey at EU summits. Impacts Erdogan's resentment over EU condemnations of growing authoritarianism is so deep that any EU softening will have little impact. Davutoglu and Erdogan present Turkey as so important globally, that the EU is desperate that it join; they have no interest in accession. Several EU member states have severe reservations about visa liberalisation, funding aid and opening new accession chapters.

SADC reform imperatives face multiple challenges

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Face ◽  
Multiple Challenges

Subject SADC reform potential Significance Between September and February, new presidents came to power in South Africa, Angola and Zimbabwe, three key Southern African Development Community (SADC) states. In the latter two, the outgoing presidents has held power for nearly four decades each. The stagnation this imposed on their countries also affected SADC. New leaders could take the organisation forward, but it is not clear whether they have the appetite for this in the face of formidable domestic and regional obstacles. Impacts A likely third-term bid by Zambia’s President Edgar Lungu will present SADC with difficulties over whether to publicly censure a member. Potentially heightened DRC refugee outflows will be a major concern for neighbouring states. Burundi's accession bid will increase scrutiny of SADC's democratic credentials given President Pierre Nkurunziza's contentious rule.

Multiple crises threaten Mozambican gas dividends

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Recent Progress ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Court Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Peace Settlement ◽  
Politically Motivated Violence ◽  
Party Congress

Significance Meanwhile, a recent court decision surrounding a long-running debt scandal will make it more difficult for Maputo to secure external budgetary support and ensure that state-owned hydrocarbons company Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH) can participate in LNG investments without being 'carried' by investors. Impacts Politically motivated violence will likely escalate as internal FRELIMO divisions worsen ahead of its 2022 party congress. Recent progress on demobilising former RENAMO rebels will boost hopes of entrenching the peace settlement. A coordinated Southern African Development Community (SADC) counterinsurgency strategy for Cabo Delgado is unlikely for now.

Burundi’s crisis may re-intensify as polls approach

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Visionary Leadership ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Proxy War ◽  
Armed Opposition Groups

Subject Burundi's political outlook. Significance On April 25, the ruling National Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) celebrated the fourth anniversary of President Pierre Nkurunziza’s 2015 decision to seek another presidential term -- a move that plunged the country into crisis. The celebrations featured fulsome tributes to the president’s visionary leadership and stern warnings against any who would disrupt the country’s progress. This raises fears that the party may be preparing to present the president as its flagbearer again in 2020. Impacts A renewed push to join the Southern African Development Community may aim to offset wider isolationism, but such efforts will likely fail. Domestic tensions could spill over regionally, especially vis-à-vis Rwanda and the two nations’ de facto proxy war in Congo. Armed opposition groups may also step up their attacks, especially if further pressure mounts on their rear bases in Congo.

Romanian ruling party could limit post-Dragnea reforms

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Judicial Appointments ◽  
The Social ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
The Eu

Subject Romania after Dragnea. Significance For much of the last five years that Liviu Dragnea controlled the Social Democrats (PSD), he also dominated the Romanian state politically. His 42-month sentence for corruption, handed down on May 27, has opened up a vacuum in the ruling PSD, and there is no obvious successor. The verdict came immediately after two electoral blows -- massive defeat in the European Parliament (EP) elections; and a resounding rebuff in a non-binding referendum in which over 80% opposed PSD attempts to amend or cancel anti-corruption legislation. Impacts President Iohannis is likely to assert himself in foreign policy, but has lost leverage in deciding senior judicial appointments. The presidential election this autumn may not be crucial in the tussle for power, as the presidency has much-reduced powers. The EU will be highly critical of Romania’s fast-increasing budget deficit, a legacy of the Dragnea era.

Majority may make Georgian ruling party invincible

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Identity Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Movement ◽  
Roll Back ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
The Eu

Significance The United National Movement (UNM) trailed far behind but will form the main parliamentary opposition. Turnout was low by Georgian standards at 51.6% and reflected voter fatigue with both main parties. A third of seats in parliament will be filled only after second-round elections take place, which will be held by November 2. Impacts A constitutional majority for Georgian Dream would allow it to roll back democratic advances. The EU and civil society groups will pay closer attention to encroachments on rights and freedoms. UNM will undergo a period of identity crisis.

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