Multiple crises threaten Mozambican gas dividends

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Recent Progress ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Court Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Peace Settlement ◽  
Politically Motivated Violence ◽  
Party Congress

Significance Meanwhile, a recent court decision surrounding a long-running debt scandal will make it more difficult for Maputo to secure external budgetary support and ensure that state-owned hydrocarbons company Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH) can participate in LNG investments without being 'carried' by investors. Impacts Politically motivated violence will likely escalate as internal FRELIMO divisions worsen ahead of its 2022 party congress. Recent progress on demobilising former RENAMO rebels will boost hopes of entrenching the peace settlement. A coordinated Southern African Development Community (SADC) counterinsurgency strategy for Cabo Delgado is unlikely for now.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

SADC reform imperatives face multiple challenges

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Face ◽  
Multiple Challenges

Subject SADC reform potential Significance Between September and February, new presidents came to power in South Africa, Angola and Zimbabwe, three key Southern African Development Community (SADC) states. In the latter two, the outgoing presidents has held power for nearly four decades each. The stagnation this imposed on their countries also affected SADC. New leaders could take the organisation forward, but it is not clear whether they have the appetite for this in the face of formidable domestic and regional obstacles. Impacts A likely third-term bid by Zambia’s President Edgar Lungu will present SADC with difficulties over whether to publicly censure a member. Potentially heightened DRC refugee outflows will be a major concern for neighbouring states. Burundi's accession bid will increase scrutiny of SADC's democratic credentials given President Pierre Nkurunziza's contentious rule.

Angolan elections may prompt ruling MPLA ruptures

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Press Conference ◽  
African Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
The Eu

Significance A press conference after the meeting saw a succession of cabinet ministers praise Angola’s long-serving president. However, despite the show of unity, dos Santos's rumoured ill-health has revealed new fissures within the ruling party. Impacts Lourenco could struggle to impose his authority on dos Santos-affiliated entities such as state-owned oil firm Sonangol. African Union and Southern African Development Community (SADC) observers are likely to trumpet a ‘free and fair’ poll. While the EU may criticise the government's handling of the election, the absence of European monitors will make this largely symbolic. Ruling party divisions could spread to other state entities, including a resurgent Angolan military.

Burundi’s crisis may re-intensify as polls approach

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Visionary Leadership ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Proxy War ◽  
Armed Opposition Groups

Subject Burundi's political outlook. Significance On April 25, the ruling National Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) celebrated the fourth anniversary of President Pierre Nkurunziza’s 2015 decision to seek another presidential term -- a move that plunged the country into crisis. The celebrations featured fulsome tributes to the president’s visionary leadership and stern warnings against any who would disrupt the country’s progress. This raises fears that the party may be preparing to present the president as its flagbearer again in 2020. Impacts A renewed push to join the Southern African Development Community may aim to offset wider isolationism, but such efforts will likely fail. Domestic tensions could spill over regionally, especially vis-à-vis Rwanda and the two nations’ de facto proxy war in Congo. Armed opposition groups may also step up their attacks, especially if further pressure mounts on their rear bases in Congo.

Congo heads towards deeply contested elections

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Step Down

Subject Congo election preview. Significance On December 23, Congo is scheduled to hold much-delayed polls after which President Joseph Kabila has vowed to step down. Anticipation is running high; so are political tensions. Impacts The Constitutional Court, which is stacked with Kabila loyalists, could cancel the polls if it looks like the opposition is winning. If elections are postponed, Kabila will remain in power until an elected president can take over. Recent statements by the Southern African Development Community suggest it remains vigilant and could exert pressure for credible polls.

Mozambique’s northern conflict will enter new phase

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Intervention ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
New Phase

Significance The troops arrived amid delays in the deployment of a planned Southern African Development Community (SADC) intervention force and uncertainties over how the different military initiatives will align. Impacts Foreign military intervention and investments in counter-insurgency will reinforce the ruling FRELIMO party. Factional infighting within FRELIMO over who should succeed President Felipe Nyusi will increase. The peace process with RENAMO risks unravelling unless renewed progress can be made quickly.

Zimbabwean transition faces competing power centres

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
First Lady ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Step Down ◽  
Competing Power ◽  
The Military

Significance The military intervention, which the army insists is not a 'coup', followed a week after Mugabe controversially dismissed Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa after allegations by First Lady Grace Mugabe that the vice president was a “coup plotter”. Domestic mediators are reportedly meeting Mugabe and urging the intransigent incumbent to step down after 37 years in power. Impacts Were Grace Mugabe to flee into exile, this would effectively end her hopes of succeeding her husband. The Southern African Development Community (SADC), in particular South Africa, will likely take the international lead in the transition. An immediate priority for a new administration will be tackling the worsening cash crunch afflicting the economy.

Mozambique’s northern insurgency may worsen post-poll

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
General Election ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Potential Use

Significance Ahead of the October 15 general election, attacks by insurgents in Cabo Delgado have persisted, hindering campaigning in the province and raising fears over election-day security. Now entering its third year, the Islamist-inspired insurgency is wreaking more devastation than ever. Impacts After a devastating cyclone earlier this year and ongoing displacement, provincial food insecurity will remain acute in the short term. Despite increased international concern over the poll, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) will not censure Maputo. The potential use of foreign troops in Cabo Delgado, insensitive to the terrain and local population, could exacerbate the conflict.

Malawian election ruling may not end political unrest

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Vice President ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Court Case ◽  
Third Place ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Political Unrest

Significance The case has been brought by runner-up Lazarus Chakwera, leader of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP), and third-place finisher former Vice-President Saulos Chilima of the United Transformation Movement (UTM), who allege that the poll was rigged. Last week, leading businessman and banker Thomson Mpinganjira, an ally of President Peter Mutharika, was arrested by the Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) for attempted bribery of the judges hearing the case. Impacts Donors will keep a close eye on the government’s response to likely protests after the court case verdict. Potential increased budgetary deficits and government borrowing will call into question future donor credit and budgetary support. An opposition victory will buoy regional activists but prove an unwelcome distraction for the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

Comoros referendum raises new backsliding fears

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
African Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Negotiated Settlement ◽  
Union Of The Comoros ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The highly contentious vote has been described by opposition parties as a dictatorial power grab by Union of the Comoros President Azali Assoumani. Impacts The African Union (AU) and the UN will intensify efforts to broker a negotiated settlement. Pressure could grow on the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which Comoros is scheduled to join, to intervene. Moheli and Anjouan could experience renewed separatist sentiment and a potential breakdown in cooperation with the central government. The authorities may intensify anti-graft proceedings against Azali's critics, including detained former President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi.

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