US actions raise agricultural trade costs globally

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
The United States ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Commodity Price Volatility ◽  
Food Imports ◽  
The Eu

Significance US President Donald Trump last month targeted Canada’s supply management system for dairy, poultry and eggs as an example of unfair restrictions on agricultural exports to that country. Meanwhile, Canada, Mexico, China and the EU, the largest US farm export markets, are imposing retaliatory measures on key agricultural and food imports from the United States in response to US tariffs on steel, aluminium and Chinese manufactured goods. Impacts The tariffs will disrupt agricultural markets, trade and supply chains globally, and commodity price volatility will increase. Food security and price stability worries will rise and may spark a vicious circle of more restrictions and interventions by governments. Chinese retaliation is targeting US agricultural and processed food exports, affecting activity in ‘swing’ states ahead of the elections.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Impact of Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 162-174
Author(s):  
Adeyemi A. Ogundipe ◽  
Omobola Adu ◽  
Oluwatomisin M. Ogundipe ◽  
Abiola J. Asaleye
Keyword(s):  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Fluctuations ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Agricultural Prices ◽  
Commodity Price Volatility ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Food Imports ◽  
Macroeconomic Aggregates

Introduction: The Nigerian economy has remained consistently heavily dependent on earnings from commodity exports which constitute over 95% external earning and 85% of budgetary and fiscal financing. Agricultural commodity exports have witnessed a significant price swings in the international market in the past few decades resulting in food price hike and macroeconomic distortions in economies heavily dependent on food imports. Methods and Materials: The study assesses the macreoconomic impact of agricultural commodity price volatility in Nigeria from 1970-2017 using Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) cointegration and Impulse-Response Function (IRF) analysis. The study adopted an atheoretical statistics to ascertain the evidence of swings in macroeconomic aggregates. Results: There was evidence of persistent fluctuations in the macroeconomic variables observed, implying that external price shocks exert a significant impact on the macroeconomic management, since bulk of national budgetary and fiscal financing is from commodity exports. Conclusion: The study found that volatile agricultural prices were responsible for a meager 2% of macroeconomic fluctuations. The empirical evidence corroborates the statistics showing that the share of agriculture in primary commodity exports has consistently remained less than 3% since the advent of crude oil. Furthermore, the study found that the swings in agricultural prices impacts foreign reserves and inflation more significantly and earlier in the time horizons than other macroeconomic aggregates.

Russian grain exports will rise as farming prospers

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Genetically Modified ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Genetically Modified Food ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian Agriculture ◽  
Food Imports ◽  
Bounce Back ◽  
The Eu

Subject Optimistic outlook for Russian agriculture. Significance Russia is set to overtake Canada and the United States to become the world's largest grain exporter this year, and some forecasters are predicting even higher levels. Moscow has extended its embargo on food imports until the end of 2016, although a recent thaw in relations with Turkey should revive fruit, vegetable and dairy imports from that country. Russian agriculture has performed well, boosted by an import substitution programme. Impacts If the EU lifts sanctions in January 2017, Russia may reciprocate, but food imports will not bounce back to their former scale. Russian food exporters will seek new markets and build export terminals to serve them. Moscow will be a bastion against genetically modified food products.

Stability in the banking industry and commodity price volatility: perspective from developing economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rexford Abaidoo ◽  
Elvis Kwame Agyapong ◽  
Kwame Fosu Boateng
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Bank Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commodity Price Volatility

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the effect of volatility in prices of internationally traded commodities (the backbone of most economies) on the stability of the banking industry from three main perspectives; bank liquidity reserves, overall bank risk and bank capital adequacy.Design/methodology/approachData were compiled from various sources for 30 emerging economies from 2002 to 2018 and were analyzed using the two-step system generalized method of moments estimation technique.FindingsThe study finds that all things being equal, the magnitude and direction of impact of commodity price volatility on bank stability among economies in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) depend on the type and nature of the commodity in question; and the bank stability proxy used. For instance, an increase in crude oil prices is found to foster stability in the banking industry (proxied by bank liquid reserves) but insignificant when stability in the banking industry is proxied using other banking sector parameters. Additionally, government effectiveness and corruption control have varying moderating influences on how volatility associated with prices of internationally traded commodities influence various proxies for banking industry stability.Originality/valueThis study highlights the effect of fluctuations in prices of key internationally traded commodities (adjusted for foreign exchange impact) that are important sources of revenue among economies in SSA on banking sector stability from liquidity, overall risk and capital adequacy perspectives. The influential role of governance in the relationship between volatility in the price of commodities and bank stability is also revealed by the study.

EU is unlikely to change course on Russia sanctions

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Annual Basis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Food Imports ◽  
The Eu

Significance The sanctions, reviewed on a semi-annual basis, have now been extended until January 2018, despite speculation about divisions within the EU. This comes after the US Treasury imposed new sanctions on 38 individuals, companies and organisations on June 20. Impacts Russia is likely to continue efforts to sow divisions within the EU and between the EU and the United States. Future oil prices will shape Russia’s ability to weather sanctions. Russia may raise capital through bond sales and by turning to Asian investors, although this may not fully offset the effects of sanctions. Russia’s counter-sanctions -- a ban on food imports from the EU -- have led to some successful agricultural import substitution.

scholarly journals Measuring the financial effects of mitigating commodity price volatility in supply chains

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Gaudenzi ◽  
George A. Zsidisin ◽  
Roberta Pellegrino
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Price Risk ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Commodity Price Volatility ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Firms can choose from an array of approaches for reducing the detrimental financial effects caused by unfavorable fluctuations in commodity prices. The purpose of this paper is to provide guidance for effectively estimating the financial effects of mitigating commodity price risk volatility (CPV) in supply chain management decisions. Design/methodology/approach This paper adopts two prominent and complementary methodologies, namely, total cost of ownership (TCO and real options valuation (ROV), to illustrate how commodity price risk mitigation strategies can be analyzed with respect to their effect on costs and performance. The paper provides insights through a case study to demonstrate the application of these methods together and establish the benefits and challenges associated with their implementation. Findings The paper illustrates advantages and disadvantages of TCO and ROV and how these approaches can be adopted together to contribute to effective purchasing decisions. Supply chain flexibility is a key capability but requires investments. Holistically measuring the financial effects of flexibility investments is imperative for gaining executive management support in mitigating commodity price volatility. Research limitations/implications This study can provide supply chain professionals with useful guidance for measuring the costs and benefits related to developing strategies for mitigating commodity price volatility. TCO provides a focus on the costs associated with the commodity purchasing process, and ROV enables the aggregation of all the costs and benefits associated with the use of the strategy and synthesizes them into the net value estimate. Originality/value The paper provides a comparison of different but complementary approaches, specifically TCO and ROV, for analyzing the effectiveness of CPV risk mitigation decisions. In addition, these two methods allow supply chain professionals to evaluate and control the financial effects of CPV risk, particularly the impact of mitigation on firm’s cash flows.

Do seasonality, break and spillover effects explain commodity price volatility

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 144-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debashish Maitra
Keyword(s):  
Futures Markets ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Commodity Futures ◽  
Spot Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commodity Price Volatility ◽  
Variance Equation

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand the volatility in commodity futures and spot markets. The study starts with a few questions: first, the effect of seasonality on the volatility is studied. Thereafter, the presence of structural breaks in the variance is identified. At last the seasonality, structural shifts and spillover effects are examined together to find out their effects on volatility. Design/methodology/approach The methodology heavily employs econometric tools and techniques. The monthly seasonal dummies are incorporated to identify the effects of seasonality on volatility. Then, the presence of break in volatility is tested by cumulative sum of squares (CUSUM test), followed by generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastictity and EGARCH models are measured by including seasonal dummies, break dummies and the residuals of other market in the variance equation to determine spillover effects. Findings It is found that the effects of seasonality on volatility cannot be ignored as the effects are significant. The presence of asymmetry is detected in all the commodities. The presence of seasonality and structural breaks in the variance equation are statistically able to reduce the volatility but the magnitude is very negligible with an exception in cumin futures markets. Bi-directional volatility spillover between futures and spot markets is observed in all the commodities and the effect of spillover is more from spot markets to the futures markets. Research limitations/implications This study is limited to a few agro commodities which are well traded. This study could have been extended to the other thinly traded commodities. This study has also taken only near month futures contracts as it contains more information but the same could have been studied by taking far month contracts also. Originality/value The present study attempted to understand the conjugated effects of seasonality, structural breaks and spillover on volatility of commodity markets which is not apparent in the previous studies. This study has also employed methodological rigor to identify the breaks in the variance equation. In addition to this it has also investigated whether Indian commodity futures markets are informationally more efficient than the spot markets.

External factors will prod Russia into climate action

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Carbon Emissions Trading ◽  
Emissions Trading Scheme ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trading Scheme ◽  
The Eu

Significance This is still tentative planning but it indicates the Kremlin is being spurred into action by looming curbs on high-carbon products in China and the EU, Russia's key export markets. Russia has so far resisted calls for more ambitious commitments. Impacts Siberian forest fires will focus public attention on the environment, if not global warming. Blame for the wildfires, as with other environmental problems, will be weaponised in elite infighting. The government is interested in developing cheap, green hydrogen. A pilot carbon emissions trading scheme in Sakhalin could be scaled up to other parts of Russia.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

scholarly journals Plant Protection and Quarantine: Helping U.S. Agriculture Thrive--Across the Country and Around the World, 2016 Annual Report

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Invasive Plant ◽  
Plant Protection ◽  
The United States ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Plant Health ◽  
Market Place ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
The World

For Plant Protection and Quarantine (PPQ) and our partners, 2016 was a year of remarkable successes. Not only did we eradicate 10 fruit fly outbreaks, but we also achieved 4 years with zero detections of pink bollworm, moving us one step closer to eradicating this pest from all commercial cotton-growing areas of the continental United States. And when the U.S. corn industry faced the first-ever detection of bacterial leaf streak (Xanthomonas vasicular pv vasculorum), we devised a practical and scientific approach to manage the disease and protect valuable export markets. Our most significant domestic accomplishment this year, however, was achieving one of our agency’s top 10 goals: eliminating the European grapevine moth (EGVM) from the United States. On the world stage, PPQ helped U.S. agriculture thrive in the global market-place. We worked closely with our international trading partners to develop and promote science-based standards, helping to create a safe, fair, and predictable agricultural trade system that minimizes the spread of invasive plant pests and diseases. We reached critical plant health agreements and resolved plant health barriers to trade, which sustained and expanded U.S. export markets valued at more than $4 billion. And, we helped U.S. producers meet foreign market access requirements and certified the health of more than 650,000 exports, securing economic opportunities for U.S. products abroad. These successes underscore how PPQ is working every day to keep U.S. agriculture healthy and profitable.

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