Spahn could emerge as Merkel’s main challenger

Subject Profile of Jens Spahn. Significance Health Minister Jens Spahn is the leading representative of a growing faction within Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) that wishes to return the party to its conservative roots. He has proven adept at capturing the electorate’s attention but several issues could plague him. Impacts Spahn’s conservative positions could alienate centrist voters. Should he be successful, the CDU would join those traditional centre-right parties across Europe that have edged further to the right. Success for Spahn would hinder EU and euro-area reform, given his stridently hawkish stance.

Subject CDU leadership race. Significance On February 8, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer announced she would resign as leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) after the party’s regional branch in Thuringia defied party rules to vote with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Her resignation reopens the question as to whether the CDU continues with Chancellor Angela Merkel's pragmatic course after she steps down, or whether it will take a more conservative direction; it also raises the possibility of a snap election. Impacts Deepening political fragmentation will make it increasingly difficult for the CDU to maintain its policy of not cooperating with the AfD. German politics will become more domestically focused in 2020, thereby slowing progress on issues such as euro-area reform and EU defence. Kramp-Karrenbauer’s leadership was underwhelming, so her resignation may be good for the CDU if a more authoritative leader replaces her.


Subject Profile of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. Significance Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is secretary general of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). She was the popular minister-president of the federal state of Saarland when she was chosen by Merkel and is now expected to help rebuild the party. She could eventually lead it into the next general elections as heir apparent to the chancellor. Impacts Kramp-Karrenbauer's appointment takes some wind out of the sails of CDU hardliners such as Health Minister Jens Spahn. At 55 years of age, she could be an impediment to efforts to make the party leadership younger. Her political future depends on whether Merkel will crash out or be able to leave on her own terms.


Subject Italy's Five Star Movement. Significance Italy's Five Star Movement (M5S) was catapulted to prominence on a wave of popular protest in the 2013 general election. Despite its internal arguments, structural ambiguity and many questionable tactics, it has not, like similar populist parties, collapsed in on itself. Rather, its influence on national politics has grown steadily. Impacts The M5S's refusal to work with other parties forces Renzi's centre-left Democratic Party to stay in an awkward alliance with the right. Against earlier pledges, Renzi may carry on even if he is defeated in the referendum, but his authority would be diminished. A 'no' vote in the referendum could precipitate a serious worsening of the credit crunch driving the Italian recession. A standoff between Rome and Brussels over how to respond to an Italian banking crisis could threaten the stability of the entire euro-area.


Significance The prospect of the euro-area extending Greece another bailout, to keep it in the single currency, has opened differences between Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble; a split in the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU); tensions between the CDU/CSU and its Social Democrat (SPD) coalition partner; and SPD unhappiness about party leader and Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel. Impacts Schaeuble is unlikely to exit government. His continued presence binds in a significant share of CDU/CSU MPs unhappy over Greece policy. A split in AfD is likely to divide the popular eurosceptic vote and keep Merkel's greatest anti-bailout problem an intra-party one. Intra-CDU/CSU opposition to further concessions to Greece restricts Merkel's leeway in euro-area negotiations Nominal debt relief for Greece will thus remain a 'red line' for the German government, straining relations with France. With Gabriel remaining a weak and controversial SPD leader, the question of who could challenge Merkel in 2017 looms large.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 328-341
Author(s):  
Rifki Ismal ◽  
Nurul Izzati Septiana

Purpose The demand for Saudi Arabian real (SAR) is very high in the pilgrimage (hajj) season while the authority, unfortunately, does not hedge the hajj funds. As such, the hajj funds are potentially exposed to exchange rate risk, which can impact the value of hajj funds and generate extra cost to the pilgrims. The purpose of this paper is to conduct simulations of Islamic hedging for pilgrimage funds to: mitigate and minimize exchange rate risk, identify and recommend the ideal time, amount and tenors of Islamic hedging for hajj funds, estimate cost saving by pursuing Islamic hedging and propose technical and general recommendations for the authority. Design/methodology/approach Forward transaction mechanism is adopted to compute Islamic forward between SAR and Rupiah (Indonesian currency) or IDR. Findings – based on simulations, the paper finds that: the longer the Islamic hedging tenors, the better is the result of Islamic hedging, the decreasing of IDR/USD is the right time to hedge the hajj funds and, on the other hand, the IDR/SAR appreciation is not the right time to hedge the hajj funds. Findings Based on simulations, the paper finds that: the longer the Islamic hedging tenors, the better is the result of Islamic hedging, the decreasing of IDR/USD is the right time to hedge the hajj funds and, on the other hand, the IDR/SAR appreciation is not the right time to hedge the hajj funds. Research limitations/implications The research suggests the authority to (and not to) hedge the hajj fund, depending on economic conditions and market indicators. Even though the assessment is for the Indonesian case, other countries maintaining hajj funds might also learn from this paper. Originality/value To the best of author’s knowledge, this is the first paper in Indonesia that attempts to simulate the optimal hedging of hajj funds.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrícia Moura e Sá ◽  
Catarina Frade ◽  
Fernanda Jesus ◽  
Mónica Lopes ◽  
Teresa Maneca Lima ◽  
...  

PurposeWicked problems require collaborative innovation approaches. Understanding the problem from the users' perspective is essential. Based on a complex and ill-defined case, the purpose of the current paper is to identify some critical success factors in defining the “right problem” to be addressed.Design/methodology/approachAn empirical research study was carried out in a low-density municipality (case study). Extensive data were collected from official databases, individual semi-structured interviews and a focus group involving citizens, local authorities, civil servants and other relevant stakeholders.FindingsAs defined by the central government, the problem to be addressed by the research team was to identify which justice services should be made available locally to a small- and low-density community. The problem was initially formulated using top-down reasoning. In-depth contact with citizens and key local players revealed that the lack of justice services was not “the issue” for that community. Mobility constraints and the shortage of economic opportunities had a considerable impact on the lack of demand for justice services. By using a bottom-up perspective, it was possible to reframe the problem to be addressed and suggest a new concept to be tested at later stages.Social implicationsThe approach followed called attention to the importance of listening to citizens and local organisations with a profound knowledge of the territory to effectively identify and circumscribe a local problem in the justice field.Originality/valueThe paper highlights the limitations of traditional rational problem-solving approaches and contributes to expanding the voice-of-the-customer principle showing how it can lead to a substantially new definition of the problem to be addressed.


1978 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 622-627 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard L. Sogg ◽  
Sarah S. Donaldson ◽  
Craig H. Yorke

✓ A 9-year-old schoolgirl received 6007 rads to the suprasellar region for craniopharyngioma. Five years later, a malignant astrocytoma developed in the right temporal lobe. We cite clinical and experimental evidence to support our suspicion that the glioma may have been induced by radiation.


2002 ◽  
Vol 97 (5) ◽  
pp. 1198-1202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Hai ◽  
Meixiu Ding ◽  
Zhilin Guo ◽  
Bingyu Wang

Object. A new experimental model of chronic cerebral hypoperfusion was developed to study the effects of systemic arterial shunting and obstruction of the primary vessel that drains intracranial venous blood on cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP), as well as cerebral pathological changes during restoration of normal perfusion pressure. Methods. Twenty-four Sprague—Dawley rats were randomly assigned to either a sham-operated group, an arteriovenous fistula (AVF) group, or a model group (eight rats each). The animal model was readied by creating a fistula through an end-to-side anastomosis between the right distal external jugular vein (EJV) and the ispilateral common carotid artery (CCA), followed by ligation of the left vein draining the transverse sinus and bilateral external carotid arteries. Systemic mean arterial pressure (MAP), draining vein pressure (DVP), and CPP were monitored and compared among the three groups preoperatively, immediately postoperatively, and again 90 days later. Following occlusion of the fistula after a 90-day interval, blood—brain barrier (BBB) disruption and water content in the right cortical tissues of the middle cerebral artery territory were confirmed and also quantified with transmission electron microscopy. Formation of a fistula resulted in significant decreases in MAP and CPP, and a significant increase in DVP in the AVF and model groups. Ninety days later, there were still significant increases in DVP and decreases in CPP in the model group compared with the other groups (p < 0.05). Damage to the BBB and brain edema were noted in animals in the model group during restoration of normal perfusion pressure by occlusion of the fistula. Electron microscopy studies revealed cerebral vasogenic edema and/or hemorrhage in various amounts, which correlated with absent astrocytic foot processes surrounding some cerebral capillaries. Conclusions. The results demonstrated that an end-to-side anastomosis between the distal EJV and CCA can induce a decrease in CPP, whereas a further chronic state of cerebral hypoperfusion may be caused by venous outflow restriction, which is associated with perfusion pressure breakthrough. This animal model conforms to the basic hemodynamic characteristics of human cerebral arteriovenous malformations.


1997 ◽  
Vol 86 (3) ◽  
pp. 505-510 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher E. Wolfla ◽  
Thomas G. Luerssen ◽  
Robin M. Bowman

✓ A porcine model of regional intracranial pressure was used to compare regional brain tissue pressure (RBTP) changes during expansion of an extradural temporal mass lesion. Measurements of RBTP were obtained by placing fiberoptic intraparenchymal pressure monitors in the right and left frontal lobes (RF and LF), right and left temporal lobes (RT and LT), midbrain (MB), and cerebellum (CB). During expansion of the right temporal mass, significant RBTP gradients developed in a reproducible pattern: RT > LF = LT > RF > MB > CB. These gradients appeared early, widened as the volume of the mass increased, and persisted for the entire duration of the experiment. The study indicates that RBTP gradients develop in the presence of an extradural temporal mass lesion. The highest RBTP was recorded in the ipsilateral temporal lobe, whereas the next highest was recorded in the contralateral frontal lobe. The RBTP that was measured in either frontal lobe underestimated the temporal RBTP. These results indicated that if a frontal intraparenchymal pressure monitor is used in a patient with temporal lobe pathology, the monitor should be placed on the contralateral side and a lower threshold for therapy of increased intracranial pressure should be adopted. Furthermore, this study provides further evidence that reliance on a single frontal intraparenchymal pressure monitor may not detect all areas of elevated RBTP.


2005 ◽  
Vol 102 (6) ◽  
pp. 1101-1107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hartmut Vatter ◽  
Michael Zimmermann ◽  
Veronika Tesanovic ◽  
Andreas Raabe ◽  
Lothar Schilling ◽  
...  

Object. The central role of endothelin (ET)—1 in the development of cerebral vasospasm after subarachnoid hemorrhage is indicated by the successful treatment of this vasospasm in several animal models by using selective ETA receptor antagonists. Clazosentan is a selective ETA receptor antagonist that provides for the first time clinical proof that ET-1 is involved in the pathogenesis of cerebral vasospasm. The aim of the present investigation was, therefore, to define the pharmacological properties of clazosentan that affect ETA receptor—mediated contraction in the cerebrovasculature. Methods. Isometric force measurements were performed in rat basilar artery (BA) ring segments with (E+) and without (E−) endothelial function. Concentration effect curves (CECs) were constructed by cumulative application of ET-1 or big ET-1 in the absence or presence of clazosentan (10−9, 10−8, and 10−7 M). The inhibitory potency of clazosentan was determined by the value of the affinity constant (pA2). The CECs for contraction induced by ET-1 and big ET-1 were shifted to the right in the presence of clazosentan in a parallel dose-dependent manner, which indicates competitive antagonism. The pA2 values for ET-1 were 7.8 (E+) and 8.6 (E−) and the corresponding values for big ET-1 were 8.6 (E+) and 8.3 (E−). Conclusions. The present data characterize clazosentan as a potent competitive antagonist of ETA receptor—mediated constriction of the cerebrovasculature by ET-1 and its precursor big ET-1. These functional data may also be used to define an in vitro profile of an ET receptor antagonist with a high probability of clinical efficacy.


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