M5S strength could tip Italy's referendum outcome

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Credit Crunch ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Structural Ambiguity ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Right

Subject Italy's Five Star Movement. Significance Italy's Five Star Movement (M5S) was catapulted to prominence on a wave of popular protest in the 2013 general election. Despite its internal arguments, structural ambiguity and many questionable tactics, it has not, like similar populist parties, collapsed in on itself. Rather, its influence on national politics has grown steadily. Impacts The M5S's refusal to work with other parties forces Renzi's centre-left Democratic Party to stay in an awkward alliance with the right. Against earlier pledges, Renzi may carry on even if he is defeated in the referendum, but his authority would be diminished. A 'no' vote in the referendum could precipitate a serious worsening of the credit crunch driving the Italian recession. A standoff between Rome and Brussels over how to respond to an Italian banking crisis could threaten the stability of the entire euro-area.

Italian stability hinges on M5S future and Salvini

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Coalition ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Litmus Test

Subject Italian political outlook. Significance On January 26, Italy’s co-ruling Democratic Party (PD) defeated Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party by 51.4% to 43.6% in elections in Emilia Romagna, a prosperous region of northern Italy. In what was a litmus test for the fragile national coalition between PD and the Five Star Movement (M5S), the PD victory has reduced the risk of a government collapse. Impacts Risk-averse investors will remain cautious about Italy over the next year. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte hopes the result will give the government the stability to cut taxes to boost private sector investment. Salvini’s support could decline if he continues to personalise the League’s election campaigns.

State elections could bring down Italy’s coalition

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Regional Governance ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Immigration Laws ◽  
The Future ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
Positive Results

Subject Regional elections in Italy. Significance The January 26 elections in Emilia Romagna will not only be significant for the future of regional governance, but also the survival of Italy’s fragile coalition of the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD). Poor results for both would increase the chances of snap elections in 2020, which Matteo Salvini’s League Party would likely win. Impacts Should the M5S suffer losses, pressure will grow on leader Luigi di Maio to resign, while further defections will be a strong possibility. Other divisive issues, including judicial and electoral reform, and the future of Alitalia could help trigger the coalition’s collapse. Positive results for the coalition parties would likely give Rome the stability significantly to reform Salvini’s hostile immigration laws.

Italy’s elections threaten the cohesion of the right

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Framework ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Dominant Party ◽  
Strong Position ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Right

Significance The results have destabilised relations within the alliance involving the League, Brothers of Italy (FdI) and Forza Italia (FI), and increased speculation that FI may ally with moderate parties instead. The election results reflect the popularity of Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government of national unity. Impacts The stability of Draghi’s government may boost Italy’s chances of influencing reforms to the EU’s fiscal policy framework. The election result reflects the wider recovery in business confidence already evidenced in Italy. Based on polling trends, Giorgia Meloni’s FdI is in a strong position to be the leading populist party after the next election. Meloni’s rise could increase tensions between FdI and the League, as the latter is accustomed to being the dominant party in the polls.

Canadian election could produce fragile government

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Canadian History ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Voting System ◽  
The Right ◽  
New Democratic Party

Significance The three main parties -- the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP), the centrist Liberals, and the right-wing Conservatives -- are nearly tied in national voter intention polls. While the effects of Canada's first-past-the-post voting system appear to give the Conservatives and the NDP better chances at winning a plurality of seats in parliament, all three parties have a chance at victory, an unprecedented situation in Canadian history. Impacts The death of refugee Alan Kurdi has resulted in all three parties promising to expand Canada's acceptance of refugees from Iraq and Syria. The longer campaign could result in a doubling of the election's cost to the taxpayer. Both the NDP and the Liberals have promised that this will be the final election using the first-past-the-post system.

French-Italian tensions will affect EU policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Ownership ◽  
Eu Policy ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of French-Italian tensions. Significance Shared interests are being driven apart by conflicting national politics which will threaten Europe's future consolidation. Impacts The growth of trans-border business ownership will face increasing challenges on both sides of the border. Macron’s proposals for a stronger euro-area will not to be supported in Rome. Growing lack of cooperation on migration will deepen bilateral discord.

Germany’s CDU looks set for modest shift to the right

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Political Fragmentation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Christian Democratic Union ◽  
German Politics ◽  
Regional Branch ◽  
Good For ◽  
The Right ◽  
Alternative For Germany

Subject CDU leadership race. Significance On February 8, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer announced she would resign as leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) after the party’s regional branch in Thuringia defied party rules to vote with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Her resignation reopens the question as to whether the CDU continues with Chancellor Angela Merkel's pragmatic course after she steps down, or whether it will take a more conservative direction; it also raises the possibility of a snap election. Impacts Deepening political fragmentation will make it increasingly difficult for the CDU to maintain its policy of not cooperating with the AfD. German politics will become more domestically focused in 2020, thereby slowing progress on issues such as euro-area reform and EU defence. Kramp-Karrenbauer’s leadership was underwhelming, so her resignation may be good for the CDU if a more authoritative leader replaces her.

Italy's Renzi set to continue political reform drive

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Turbulence ◽  
Italian Politics ◽  
The Right ◽  
Political Scene

Subject The Italian political scene ahead of the May 31 regional and local elections. Significance Prime Minister Matteo Renzi of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) has consolidated his political authority in his party and parliament. The balance of political power has shifted in favour of the left. Renzi has made progress on institutional reforms, most notably of the electoral system, that promise to enhance Italy's longer-term governability. Renzi's strengthened political position, the current relative stability of Italian politics and the prospect of more authoritative Italian governments in future would all provide Italy some insulation in the event of renewed financial market turbulence prompted by a Greek default. Impacts Renzi currently stands out as the left's most successful leader of a major EU state. Italian reformers seeking to consolidate party leadership authority and simplify decision-making have generally come from the right. Renzi has made more progress in these areas than former centre-right Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi achieved. If Renzi secures his planned reform of the Senate, as seems likely, it would further boost both Renzi and Italy's governability.

Spahn could emerge as Merkel’s main challenger

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Health Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Christian Democratic Union ◽  
The Right

Subject Profile of Jens Spahn. Significance Health Minister Jens Spahn is the leading representative of a growing faction within Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) that wishes to return the party to its conservative roots. He has proven adept at capturing the electorate’s attention but several issues could plague him. Impacts Spahn’s conservative positions could alienate centrist voters. Should he be successful, the CDU would join those traditional centre-right parties across Europe that have edged further to the right. Success for Spahn would hinder EU and euro-area reform, given his stridently hawkish stance.

A new Italian centre-right government could be weak

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Critical Level ◽  
Grand Coalition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Eu

Significance The last month has seen two important developments. First, polls suggest the combined vote for the centre-right is approaching the critical level needed for a majority. Second, both centre-right Forza Italia and the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) have ruled out a grand coalition. Both prefer a second election if no coalition wins a majority. Impacts Even if no bloc wins a majority, President Sergio Mattarella will try to resist a second election. Forza Italia and the PD might renege on their campaign pledges and form a grand coalition if no bloc wins a majority. As long as Forza Italia remains the largest party in the centre-right bloc, a referendum on euro-area membership is unlikely. A Eurosceptic alliance between the League and the M5S would unsettle the EU and financial markets.

EU proposal could prevent Italian government collapse

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Direct Investment ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Medical Emergency ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Italian Government ◽  
Five Star Movement

Subject Outlook for Italian government. Significance The six-week delay in publishing the draft 'Relaunch Decree' underlines the deepening division within the coalition between the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD). It also shows Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s lack of political support as he moves from tackling the medical emergency to addressing the deep economic downturn. Impacts The EU’s proposed recovery programme will narrow the spread between German and Italian government bonds. Italy’s recession could increase the country’s demand for foreign direct investment from China. If the League’s support continues to decline, Salvini’s leadership of the party will come under greater scrutiny.

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