South African foreign policy will see cosmetic changes

Subject South African foreign policy. Significance President Cyril Ramaphosa has focused largely on domestic issues in his first six months in office. However, a push for new foreign direct investment of 100 billion dollars over five years, coupled with the securing of a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council from 2019-20, have raised hopes of a fresh foreign policy approach across several fronts. Impacts Despite Ramaphosa's reassurances, radical land reform proposals could undermine attempts to improve the wider investment climate. New US tariffs on steel, aluminium and possibly automobiles could offset advantages from the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Confidence-building economic measures will be necessary to stem the large sale of government bonds by foreigners.

Subject The Tunisian president's foreign policy agenda. Significance On February 7, President Kais Saied dramatically sacked Moncef Baati, Tunisia’s permanent representative at the UN. Baati had been sitting on the UN Security Council, where the country took up a seat last month, and was chairing its counter-terrorism committee. His dismissal, and the harsh criticism issued against him by the presidency, have alienated many civil servants. This carries risks for Saied, a retired law professor and political outsider, who as president is now solely responsible for determining foreign policy, on which he has some unconventional views, as well as ambitious goals. Impacts Civil servants are likely to obstruct or even actively sabotage initiatives by the presidency. Saied may seek to replace career diplomats with political appointees to bypass institutional resistance. Tunisia’s next UN ambassador will have little scope for autonomous action. Morocco will block Saied’s plans to initiate a regional dialogue over Western Sahara’s status.


Subject Moreno's challenges. Significance President Lenin Moreno begins 2019 with a new vice-president -- his third so far -- and a deeply divided party. Worsening relations between himself and his predecessor are polarising his natural support base. While he has managed to consolidate his position by forming alliances with the right, he remains in a vulnerable position, and will face major political challenges over the coming year. Impacts Moreno’s continued drift to the right will please international investors and help his government attract foreign direct investment. Moreno’s line on Venezuela signals alignment with regional right-wing governments and a further break with Correa’s foreign policy. Political tensions will build as the local elections approach -- isolated episodes of violence will almost certainly occur.


Significance Canada 's ties with China are strained and are one foreign policy challenge that the recently re-elected Trudeau government faces this year. However, his government is now a minority administration. Impacts Canada will pass the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, but that could be slowed in the fractious parliament. Canada will push for a UN Security Council seat in June, but is unlikely to be elected. Canada will extradite Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou per US needs, likely meaning further Chinese diplomatic and trade retaliation. Ottawa will eventually decide not to allow Huawei to participate in Canada’s 5G network. A swift UK-Canada free trade deal is unlikely, as the UK must first settle its EU relationship.


Subject Iran framework nuclear deal. Significance After 18 months of marathon negotiations, Iran and six world powers (the permanent five UN Security Council members plus Germany) have agreed on the parameters of a deal that limits Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) announced on April 2 establishes a surprisingly comprehensive political framework for the final deal. In the coming weeks, Tehran and Washington will work to sell the deal at home before returning to the negotiating table to iron out the technical details of a final agreement, due to be completed by June 30. Impacts Iran is unlikely to see tangible economic and investment benefits from sanctions relief until 2016. Limited economic improvements could damage prospects for Rouhani, and for moderates and reformists in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The agreement will not alter Iran's regional alliances or foreign policy interests. Tehran has no intention of pursuing a full-scale rapprochement with Washington.


2015 ◽  
pp. 151-156
Author(s):  
A. Koval

The improving investment climate objective requires a comprehensive approach to the regulatory framework enhancement. Policy Framework for Investment (PFI) is a significant OECD’s investment tool which makes possible to identify the key obstacles to the inflow foreign direct investment and to determine the main measures to overcome them. Using PFI by Russian authorities would allow a systematic monitoring of the national investment policy and also take steps to improve the effectiveness of sustainable development promotion regulations.


2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 243-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Gugler ◽  
Laura Vanoli

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to focus on Chinese firms’ innovation processes that are induced by foreign direct investment abroad. The study uses a patent and citation analysis to examine the extent to which investments abroad contribute to enhancing these firms’ innovative capabilities. More specifically, this study focusses on the role of foreign location competitiveness as an asset to provide technological capabilities to Chinese affiliates. Design/methodology/approach – Patents are good indicators of firms’ innovative capabilities. Moreover, patents allow to track the inter-firm knowledge transfer through the citations of patents on which they are based. The authors use an OECD patent database called “OECD REGPAT July 2013” that compiles patents registered with the European Patent Office (EPO) over the period from 1986 to 2013. The authors focus the analysis on patents registered by Chinese multinational enterprises’ (MNEs) based in Europe because the authors assume inter alia that innovations patented by Chinese affiliates in Europe are registered with the EPO. The sample comprises 3,010 patents involving 5,749 citations that the authors have individually examined. Findings – The findings suggest that Chinese MNEs ability to generate innovation based on their own knowledge is low, with a self-citation rate of approximately 4 percent. Patents by Chinese MNEs are largely based on foreign patents, especially from developed economies (at least 90 percent). The citation analysis also suggests that 39.2 percent of citations represent domestic firms in the local recipient country. This subgroup of citations is categorized as follows: 1.04 percent are M&A linkages, 13.8 percent are cluster linkages, and 24.36 percent are localization linkages. The remaining 60.8 percent of the total sample demonstrates that firms do not necessarily need to be collocated in foreign locations with domestic firms to exchange assets. Research limitations/implications – Patent and citation analysis considers only a part of the inter-firm knowledge diffusion. Some innovations are not patented and tacit knowledge diffusion is not observable. Moreover, the analysis focusses only on Chinese outward foreign direct investment to Europe, but a large part of knowledge is accumulated in China thanks to inward foreign direct investment. Originality/value – Many scholars have scrutinized emerging markets multinational enterprises’ strategic asset-seeking investments abroad that are designed to upgrade the companies’ technological capabilities (Cui and Jiang, 2009; Zhang and Filippov, 2009; Huang and Wang, 2013; Amighini et al., 2014; De Beule et al., 2014; Nicolas, 2014). However, few studies analyze the results of these strategies in terms of innovation output.


Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.


Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.


Significance Last week, its partners in the ‘Quad’ grouping -- the United States, Japan and Australia -- agreed to help increase its vaccine manufacturing and exporting capacity. Each of the Quad members is wary of China, which like India is gifting and selling coronavirus jabs around the world. Impacts India’s manufacturing sector will attract more foreign direct investment. Greater cooperation over supply chains will help strengthen India-Australia ties. Indian pharma will in the long term aim to ease dependence on imports of active pharmaceutical ingredients from China.


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