Next year’s elections may reconfigure EU politics

Subject Preview of the 2019 European Parliament elections. Significance European Parliament (EP) elections will take place in May 2019. The rise of far-right and in some cases far-left populist parties in recent national elections and the departure of 73 UK EP members (MEPs) due to Brexit will likely lead to a shake-up of the pan-European political parties (Europarties) that group together MEPs and organise politics in the EP. Impacts The most salient axis of competition will not be the traditional left vs right divide, but Eurosceptic populist vs pro-EU centrist. If populists make major gains and form effective alliances, this would be seen as a crisis and a threat to the functioning of the Union. Shifting alliances in the EP will impact how the EU deals with various national governments.

Author(s):  
Vitalij Semenko

The article deals with peculiarities of the regular elections in the Republic of Austria to the European Parliament in 2014, as well as the main reasons for the success of nationalists, left-wing parties, eurosceptics, populists, far-right political parties, even though the pro-European forces have retained their majority. The main results of the parliamentary elections, the conclusions of eminent political scientists, experts who researched election to the European Parliament are in details analyzed. Also, the main objectives and tasks of the party and election programs of political parties in Austria are in details characterized, which are represented in the European Parliament, this important supranational body of the European Union. Specific features of obtaining by Austria of 18 seats on the 8th next elections to the European Parliament are revealed, which took place on May 25, 2014. Keywords: Political party, euroscepticism, elections, populism, political system


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ondřej Mocek ◽  
Martin Petlach ◽  
Zuzana Hudečková

The paper inquires divergences in electoral programs of four Czech political parties (the ČSSD, KDU-ČSL, KSČM, and the ODS) as delivered for all the previous European Parliament elections. The aim of this study is to compare the use of national and European themes as delineated in programs. It is assumed that, in many cases, the programs contain topics and aspects which are specific and valid for elections on the national level instead. Thus, the paper elaborates on one of the characteristics of the second-order elections theory as exemplified in the Euro-elections. Results of the analysis showed a significant superiority of national affairs over the European issues in the examined samples. Although the number of political parties varies in individual periods, the study has also confirmed the assumption drawn from the theory of second-order elections. Therefore, political parties utilize political programs for the European Parliament elections as of national interest with domestic affairs, not European. Furthermore, the study considers dissimilarities among political parties in positive and negative attitudes toward the EU. Hence, sundry approaches to European affairs may be identified across the Czech political parties.


Significance Last year’s march was marred by far-right racism, with many foreign activists participating. A court overruled the Warsaw mayor’s attempt to ban the march this year. The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) tried to dilute neo-fascist participation with its own official celebrations, kept carefully away from nationalist displays. A few days earlier, the results from the final round of regional elections came as a disappointment for the PiS government, which had sought to broaden support among middle-class voters. Impacts The October 2019 parliamentary elections will be held amid a likely economic slowdown. PiS will redouble efforts to win popularity after failing to build regionally on its 2015 national electoral triumph. PiS may be assisted at the EU level if as some predict the far-right performs well in the elections to the European Parliament in May.


Subject European Parliament elections. Significance Opinion polls suggest the European elections, which are due to take place across the EU from May 23-26, will produce a European Parliament (EP) that is more fragmented than ever before. That will make it harder for the EU to push through some important policy priorities, from climate change to immigration. Impacts EP election results could have a significant impact on future government relations in Italy and Germany. Despite the rise of LREM, France is set to have a diminished role in the next EP if the Republican and Socialist parties perform badly. The necessity of ad-hoc coalitions for specific policy proposals will increase. Significant gains for the UK Brexit Party could have a decisive influence on the Conservative and Labour party’s Brexit strategy.


Significance This is mostly thanks to the significant decrease in COVID-19 cases in Italy and Rome obtaining relatively low-risk financial support from the EU to reboot the economy. Also, League party leader Matteo Salvini has been unable to offer a convincing alternative plan to handle COVID-19. Impacts The elections would be postponed only if there was a substantial surge in COVID-19 cases in the six regions due to vote. The upcoming elections will be the first major test of support for the far right since the COVID-19 outbreak. Business confidence is likely to suffer if coalition instability increases speculation of early national elections.


Subject Europe's immigration challenge. Significance On March 27 EU leaders agreed to extend Operation Sophia, the mission aimed at curtailing smuggling in the Mediterranean Sea, by six months. Under revised terms, the EU mission will no longer deploy naval assets, but will continue to deploy aerial assets and train Libya’s coast guard to strengthen that country’s border controls. The compromise to abandon naval assets is aimed at appeasing Italy, which opposes the mission as the vast majority of migrants rescued in the Central Mediterranean are brought to Italian ports. Impacts Divergence over immigration could prevent Europe’s far-right parties from forming a stable alliance in the European Parliament. The number of migrants forcibly returned to Libya will likely increase. Humanitarian NGO ships will continue to operate in the Central Mediterranean, but could face criminalisation from Italy.


Author(s):  
Russell J. Dalton

This chapter uses the cleavage positions of Candidates to the European Parliament (CEPs) to as representative of their parties’ political positions. Three surveys of CEPs track the evolution of party supply in European party systems. In 1979 parties were primarily aligned along a Left–Right economic cleavage. Gradually new left and Green parties began to compete in elections and crystallized and represented liberal cultural policies. In recent decades new far-right parties arose to represent culturally conservative positions. The cross-cutting cultural cleavage has also prompted many of the established parties to alter their policy positions. In most multiparty systems, political parties now compete in a fully populated two-dimensional space. This increases the supply of policy choices for the voters. The analyses are based on the Candidates to the European Parliament Studies in 1979, 1994, and 2009.


2021 ◽  
pp. 146511652199845
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Nonnemacher

Since direct elections to the European Parliament began in 1979, variations in voting behavior in European Parliament elections from national elections have raised interesting questions about political behavior. I add to a growing literature that explores turnout in European Parliament elections by focusing on the count of national elections between European Parliament elections. Through a cross-national study of elections, I find that turnout decreases in the European Parliament contest following cycles with numerous national contests. Then, using data from the European Election Study, I argue that this is the result of frequent elections decreasing turnout particularly among already low interest voters who stay home. My findings have implications for how formal rules of multi-level elections shape political behavior more generally and voter fatigue in particular.


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