Warsaw will react to lacklustre local vote and economy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle Class ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
Final Round ◽  
The Eu

Significance Last year’s march was marred by far-right racism, with many foreign activists participating. A court overruled the Warsaw mayor’s attempt to ban the march this year. The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) tried to dilute neo-fascist participation with its own official celebrations, kept carefully away from nationalist displays. A few days earlier, the results from the final round of regional elections came as a disappointment for the PiS government, which had sought to broaden support among middle-class voters. Impacts The October 2019 parliamentary elections will be held amid a likely economic slowdown. PiS will redouble efforts to win popularity after failing to build regionally on its 2015 national electoral triumph. PiS may be assisted at the EU level if as some predict the far-right performs well in the elections to the European Parliament in May.

Slovak centre-right must unite to win again in 2020

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Support ◽  
The Other ◽  
Far Right ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Central European ◽  
Nationalist Government ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject The government’s poor showing in regional elections. Significance Elections in Slovakia’s eight regions on November 4 led to a surprise defeat for Prime Minister Robert Fico’s Direction-Social Democracy (Smer-SD) party, whose candidates lost four of the six governorships they previously held. A coalition of opposition centre-right parties, which normally only win the governorship in the most prosperous region, Bratislava, was victorious in five of the eight regions. This is the strongest indication yet that the current left-nationalist government could be replaced by such a coalition at the next parliamentary elections due in spring 2020. Impacts The current governing coalition will want to avoid early elections and serve a full four-year term until March 2020. Fico is likely to continue promoting generous social policies to increase his political support. With the defeat of the far-right, Slovakia will continue to diverge from the other Central European states. The weakening of Smer-SD and lack of trust shown by voters leaves considerable scope for new parties to succeed in future elections.

Next year’s elections may reconfigure EU politics

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Far Right ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
National Governments ◽  
The Eu

Subject Preview of the 2019 European Parliament elections. Significance European Parliament (EP) elections will take place in May 2019. The rise of far-right and in some cases far-left populist parties in recent national elections and the departure of 73 UK EP members (MEPs) due to Brexit will likely lead to a shake-up of the pan-European political parties (Europarties) that group together MEPs and organise politics in the EP. Impacts The most salient axis of competition will not be the traditional left vs right divide, but Eurosceptic populist vs pro-EU centrist. If populists make major gains and form effective alliances, this would be seen as a crisis and a threat to the functioning of the Union. Shifting alliances in the EP will impact how the EU deals with various national governments.

ECJ ruling will add to tensions in Catalonia

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Parliament ◽  
European Court Of Justice ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Financial Independence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Court Of Justice ◽  
European Court ◽  
Eventual Return ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
The Way

Subject Catalan uncertainty. Significance On December 20, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled in favour of allowing former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont to take up his seat as a member of the European Parliament (MEP), citing parliamentary immunity. This will give Puigdemont a platform to seek international sympathy for Catalan independence and could even pave the way for his eventual return to Spain. Impacts A repeat of the current ERC-JxCat coalition is the most likely outcome of the regional elections, but this time headed by the ERC. Spain’s slowing economy may worsen political divisions between Spain and Catalonia, with the latter demanding more financial independence. Spain’s new coalition will struggle to govern but will be anxious to avoid early elections due to the rise of the far-right Vox party.

Countries will want EU solution to migration

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Coast Guard ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Central Mediterranean ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Border Controls ◽  
The Eu

Subject Europe's immigration challenge. Significance On March 27 EU leaders agreed to extend Operation Sophia, the mission aimed at curtailing smuggling in the Mediterranean Sea, by six months. Under revised terms, the EU mission will no longer deploy naval assets, but will continue to deploy aerial assets and train Libya’s coast guard to strengthen that country’s border controls. The compromise to abandon naval assets is aimed at appeasing Italy, which opposes the mission as the vast majority of migrants rescued in the Central Mediterranean are brought to Italian ports. Impacts Divergence over immigration could prevent Europe’s far-right parties from forming a stable alliance in the European Parliament. The number of migrants forcibly returned to Libya will likely increase. Humanitarian NGO ships will continue to operate in the Central Mediterranean, but could face criminalisation from Italy.

Ruling Polish party can push through judicial reforms

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Council ◽  
Business Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Constitutional Tribunal ◽  
Court Proceedings ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance After the October parliamentary elections, the Law and Justice (PiS) government has sharpened its position against the judiciary. Now that it has taken control of the Constitutional Tribunal (KT) and National Council of the Judiciary (KRS), the Supreme Court (SN) is the most important judicial institution over which the government has no influence. Impacts Local and foreign business investment decreased after 2015 and the situation in the judiciary is likely to reinforce this trend. The PiS government will have to devote much effort to avoid its worsening relations with the EU leading to further sanctions. The chaotic situation in which some judges do not recognise others will lead to even longer court proceedings.

Les élections régionales et européennes du 13 juin 2004 : Analyse des résultats

Res Publica ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 46 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 357-376
Author(s):  
William Fraeys
Keyword(s):  
Status Quo ◽  
The Other ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Green Party ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Third ◽  
Main Development ◽  
Regional Elections

In Belgium the European elections and those for the regional councils were held on the same day. The elections of June 13th 2004 deserve a threefold analysis. First a comparison can be made with the results obtained five years ago for the same assemblies. lt shows that in Flanders the socialist party has progressed but that this advance was mainly due to the constitution of a cartel with one faction - Spirit - of the defunct Volksunie. The christian democrats made headway, their progress being enhanced by the contribution of N-VA, the other faction stemming from the Volksunie. The liberals declined fairly markedly as did the green party but to a lesser extent than in the elections for the federal parliament. The June 2004 elections saw above all progress for the extreme right Vlaams Blok, which has become the second biggest party of Flanders with 24 pct of the vote. In the Walloon provinces the socialists progress most thereby increasing the gap separating them from the liberals. The christian democrats advance somewhat while the green party Ecolo declines substantially.  The parties of the far right gain support and reach 8.73 pct of the vote. In Brussels the socialist advance is very marked allowing this party to conquer first place to the detriment of the liberals who are in decline. The progress made by frenchspeaking christian democrats is significant.A second approach for the analysis consists in comparing the results of the regional elections with those of the European ones. The differences are slight and rnainly due to the popularity of the candidates. In Belgium there was no "eurosceptic" or "sovereignty" list.  The third angle consists in comparing the 2004 results with the ones of the parliamentary elections of 2003. One then observes in Flanders a decline of the socialists, a significant fall in support for the liberals and a progression of the christian democrats. But the main development remains the progression of the Vlaams Blok which gains more than 6 pct compared to its good result of 2003.  In the Walloon provinces, the socialists remain at their 2003 level but increase their positive gap with regard to the liberals who are in decline. The christian democrats advance by some 2 pct whereas Ecolo recovers a small part of its 2003 loss. The parties of the far right gain some 1.5 pct. In Brussels, the most noteworthy developrnent is the progress of the frenchspeaking socialists who take over the first place from the liberals.In genera!lthese elections are characterised by a reinforcement of the far right to the detriment of the centre parties and by a status quo of the aggregate consisting of socialists and greens, but to the benefit of the former.

On en sont les partis politiques, au lendemain du 8 octobre 2000?

Res Publica ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 575-587
Author(s):  
William Fraeys
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Green Parties ◽  
Political Group ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
Liberal Group ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
Walloon Region

On October 8th 2000 municipal elections were held in Belgium to renew the local councils which had been elected in 1994. In the Walloon region and in Flanders in addition provincial elections were organised.  The aim of the article is to try and measure globally where the political forces stand after these elections and among others to assess whether significant swings have take place since june 13th, 1999, when the latest parliamentary and regional elections took place.  On the basis of an estimation of the global results in the municipal elections of the various parties in the Walloon region, in Flanders and in Brussels, backed up by the actual results of the provincial elections, one can say that the liberal group bas strengthened its first position.The Christian democrats, who make up the second most important political group and the Socialists, who rank third, have regained a large part of the losses they incurred onjune 13th, 1999.Although improving their results in comparison with 1994, the Green parties lost again part of their advance they registered in the parliamentary and regional elections and which had probably been boosted by the dioxin crisis.The frenchspeaking far right practically disappears, whereas the Vlaams Blok obtained an average of 15 % of the Flemish electorate in the municipal and provincial elections, a level which it had reached in the 1999 parliamentary elections.

Next Dutch government will likely be ‘greener’

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Dutch Government ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Targets ◽  
A Priority ◽  
The Eu

Significance Government formation should have been relatively straightforward but a series of political controversies have damaged VVD leader and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s credibility with the CU and some opposition parties. Impacts The collective rise of the far-right vote means the far right will continue to worry centrist parties and thus influence government policy. Investment in nuclear energy to meet climate targets is unlikely to be a priority for the new government. Dutch influence in the EU could grow with the departure of Merkel in September, and Macron’s focus on the 2022 election.

European Parliament vote will raise more TTIP doubts

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transatlantic Trade ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Deep Integration ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
The Eu

Subject The European Parliament and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. Significance The last-minute decision of the European Parliament (EP) to postpone a June 10 debate and vote on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) has exposed important divisions among its members (MEPs) over whether and how closer EU-US economic ties can be secured. While non-binding at this stage, the debate and vote would have provided important guidance to the European Commission on its priorities and room for manoeuvre as it engages in further negotiations with the United States. TTIP must ultimately be ratified by the EP, which has voted down international agreements in the past. Impacts The EP's difficulties in finalising its views could constrain the Commission in the TTIP negotiations. However, given the EP's ultimate veto over the deal, time spent now on hammering out an ISDS formula it could accept may not be wasted. Any rejection of TTIP, particularly over ISDS, could raise questions over future international trade deals premised on deep integration. TTIP rejection could even jeopardise concluded trade deals awaiting ratification, such as that between the EU and Canada. Progress on TTIP is among the measures sought by UK Prime Minister David Cameron before his EU membership referendum.

ISG is unlikely to infiltrate refugee flows to Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group ◽  
Foreign Fighters ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Inter State ◽  
Security Crises

Subject ISG infiltration of refugee flows. Significance Refugee arrivals in Europe in 2016, large if not at 2015 levels, will put yet more pressure on the EU, which is already struggling to address economic crises, political polarisation and inter-state divisions on how to address security crises in Ukraine and the Middle East. Suspicions have grown that among the refugees are operatives of the Islamic State group (ISG). Impacts ISG's foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria will seek to expand their relationships with existing extremist networks in Europe. Speculation over ISG's presence within refugee flows will continue, especially as far-right parties continue to perform well in elections. The EU-Turkey deal may slow refugee flows, but the existing numbers of refugees will continue to attract suspicion from authorities.

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