Europe and Euroscepticism on Twitter During the 2019 European Parliament Elections

The purpose of this research is to analyse the activity on Twitter of the eight main candidates who stood in the 2019 European election in Spain. The analysis was developed throughout the electoral campaign and established based on two methodological perspectives. First, the content analysis allowed to observe which topics each candidate spoke about and from which perspective (pro-European or Eurosceptic). Second, the discourse analysis allowed to further explore the political communication strategies developed. This analysis is based on two hypotheses. The first (H1) is that European issues and approaches will not be a priority in candidates' discourses for the European Parliament, given the context of political polarisation in Spain and the fact that these elections can be read as a second round for the April 2019 general election. The second (H2) is that Euroscepticism will have a marginal presence in candidates' messages. The results confirm H2 but reject H1.

Coordinated populism: a reconstruction of M5S Directorate’s communication from 2013 to 2019

In the last decade, the rapid rise of the Five Star Movement has been the focus of many studies investigating populism and its characteristics. While the communicative role of the founder Beppe Grillo has been widely discussed in the literature, to date little attention has been paid to the relevance of the Directorate in shaping the political assets attributed to M5S. By analysing all the tweets posted by Di Battista, Di Maio and Fico from the Italian electoral campaign of 2013 until the European election of 2019, we will show how instead the peculiar political proposal of M5S has been built over time also thanks to the communicative coordination capacity of the Directorate and their strategic exploitation of digital platforms’ affordances. Indeed, the presence of a shared communicative leadership has laid the ground for the construction of a political proposal capable of intercepting and shaping the different souls of the Movement, without, however, affecting the rhetoric of opposition between people and elite on which populist movements rely. The algorithmic logic of customization that governs social media has instead accentuated the possibility for users to choose the «face» they like among the various and contradictory positions of the Directorate. In these terms, M5S communicative strategy highlights the elective affinity between social media and populist rhetoric, showing how the Directorate presence on Twitter has been an exemplary case of populist ability in using the algorithmic governance of digital platforms to one’s advantage. In this view, the avoidance of overlapping between the components of the Directorate is extremely relevant: the coordinated communication between different leaders ensures that no contradictions emerge within the discourses of the individual but also that the broad political proposal can generate a chameleonic and catch-all dimension inside the party.

Assessing the impact of party identification in transnational election campaigns: Evidence from the 2019 European Parliament election

Since the introduction of “Spitzenkandidaten” for the presidency of the European Commission, elections to the European Parliament have been characterised by the dynamic between an increasingly transnational election campaign and a national electoral process. However, the implementation of a European election campaign focusing on transnational top candidates remains controversial because it is still unclear to what extent nationally formed political predispositions such as party identification can serve as heuristics for assessing a transnational election campaign. Though TV duels as miniature campaigns directly open up this antagonism, research at the European level remains limited. Drawing on data from a field study consisting of virtualised real-time-response measurement and survey data of 157 participants, we show that expressive party identification as a heuristic is considerably constrained in transnational debates’ reception, while being complemented by instrumental aspects such as candidate orientations and ideological attitudes.

The Brexit deterrent? How member state exit shapes public support for the European Union

What are the effects on public support for the European Union (EU) when a member state exits? We examine this question in the context of Britain's momentous decision to leave the EU. Combining analyses of the European Election Study 2019 and a unique survey-embedded experiment conducted in all member states, we analyse the effect of Brexit on support for membership among citizens in the EU-27. The experimental evidence shows that while information about the negative economic consequences of Brexit had no significant effect, positive information about Britain's sovereignty significantly increased optimism about leaving the EU. Our findings suggest that Brexit acts as a benchmark for citizens’ evaluations of EU membership across EU-27, and that it may not continue to act as a deterrent in the future.

Ideological voting for radical right parties in Europe

The aim of this research is to examine to what extent the electoral support for radical right parties (RRPs) is driven by ‘policy voting’ and to compare this support with that of centre-right parties. Using the European Election Study 2019, we focus on six party systems: Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Austria, and the United Kingdom. Our analyses reveal that party preferences for RRPs are better explained by policy considerations than by other alternative explanations (e.g. by ‘globalization losers’ or ‘protest voting’). Additionally, the results show that although preferences for both party families are mainly rooted in ‘policy voting’, notable differences emerge when looking at the role of specific policy dimensions. Overall, these findings suggest that the support for RRPs cannot be understood fundamentally as a mere reaction against economic pauperization or political dissatisfaction but instead as an ideological decision based on rational choice models.

Zooming in on the ‘Europeanisation’ of national politics: A comparative analysis of six EU countries

This article empirically revisits and tests the effect of individual distance from parties on the EU integration dimension and on the left–right dimension for vote choice in both national and European elections. This analysis is based on the unique European Election Study (EES) 2014 survey panel data from seven EU countries. Our findings show that in most countries the effect of individual distance on the EU integration dimension is positive and significant for both European and national elections. Yet the effect of this dimension is not uniform across all seven countries, revealing two scenarios: one in which it is only relevant for Eurosceptic voters and the other in which it is significant for voters of most parties in the system. The first is mainly related to the presence of a ‘hard’ Eurosceptic party in the party supply, but the second, which indicates a more advanced level of Europeanisation of party systems, is not explained by most current theoretical and empirical contributions. We conclude by proposing two additional explanations for this latter scenario in which the EU integration dimension is present for most voters in both type of elections, including those voting for the main parties. Our findings and further discussion have implications for the understanding of the Europeanisation of national politics and its relationship with vote choice.

Are microtargeted campaign messages more negative and diverse? An analysis of Facebook Ads in European election campaigns

Concerns about the use of online political microtargeting (OPM) by campaigners have arisen since the Cambridge Analytica scandal hit the international political arena. In addition to providing conceptual clarity on OPM and explore the use of such techniques in Europe, this paper seeks to empirically disentangle the differing behaviours of campaigners when they message citizens through microtargeted rather than non-targeted campaigning. More precisely, I hypothesise that campaigners use negative campaigning and are more diverse in terms of topics when they use OPM. To investigate whether these expectations hold true, I use text-as-data techniques to analyse an original dataset of 4,091 political Facebook Ads during the last national elections in Austria, Italy, Germany and Sweden. Results show that while microtargeted ads might indeed be more thematically diverse, there does not seem to be a significant difference to non-microtargeted ads in terms of negativity. In conclusion, I discuss the implications of these findings for microtargeted campaigns and how future research could be conducted.

When Marriage Gets Hard: Intra-Coalition Conflict and Electoral Accountability

Combining individual-level with event-level data across 25 European countries and three sets of European Election Studies, this study examines the effect of conflict between parties in coalition government on electoral accountability and responsibility attribution. We find that conflict increases punishment for poor economic performance precisely because it helps clarify to voters parties’ actions and responsibilities while in office. The results indicate that under conditions of conflict, the punishment is equal for all coalition partners when they share responsibility for poor economic performance. When there is no conflict within a government, the effect of poor economic evaluations on vote choice is rather low, with slightly more punishment targeted to the prime minister’s party. These findings have important implications for our understanding of electoral accountability and political representation in coalition governments.

Visual Gender Stereotyping in Campaign Communication: Evidence on Female and Male Candidate Imagery in 28 Countries

Using the case of the 2019 European election, the study compares the visual self-depiction of female and male political candidates from all European Union’s 28 member states on social networking sites and their depiction in the news coverage. It thereby investigates to what degree the news coverage and politicians’ self-depiction employs visual gender stereotypes. Moreover, the study presents results on differences in the depiction of male and female candidates across party lines. With the help of computational vision, we demonstrate that, while differences between progressive and conservative candidates are scarce, there are clear differences in the depiction of female and male politicians. These differences resemble emotional gender stereotypes, especially since women are more often depicted as happy. Overall, the study demonstrates that female political communication is still distinct from male political communication for both their self-representation as well as the media’s portrayal of political candidates.

How Voters Distort their Perceptions and Why this Matters

Voters’ ability to perceive political parties’ positions on policy scales is a precondition for a functioning and responsive electoral democracy. Appropriate measures of policy distance are thus key to addressing the link between political parties and the citizens. This chapter reviews the scholarship on ideal point estimation, identifying the main methodological and substantial implications for empirical studies involving issue scales. Next, the chapter applies two-stage Bayesian Aldrich-McKelvey scaling to European Election Studies data to find evidence of systematic perceptual distortions: right-wing voters perceive political parties as more progressive than they actually are, while knowledgeable voters perceive greater differences between parties. Perceptual bias is also shown to correlate with standard polarization measures based on perceived party positions.