Croatia will remain under pressure until 2020 election

Significance The government has capitulated to demands by trade unions to lower the retirement age despite a growing demographic imbalance and public finances under strain. In the process, the government has demonstrated its weakness and unpopularity. Impacts Surrender to the unions will encourage discontented public sector workers to seek pay rises, with teachers threatening strike action. Popular discontent with fiscal cutbacks will pose a risk to plans for Croatia to adopt the euro early next decade. Divisions at home will limit Croatia’s ability to push its political priorities when it assumes the EU Council presidency in January 2020.

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.


Subject Fiscal reform protests. Significance President Carlos Alvarado is facing his most severe test since taking office in May, with his efforts to pass a long-awaited fiscal reform sparking strikes and protests across the country. Although the government has initiated a dialogue with trade unions, sustained opposition means that the fiscal reform is likely to be watered down substantially. Impacts Transport disruption will affect regional trade, compounding the transit problems caused by unrest in Nicaragua. The national strike’s success may encourage more such actions in future, potentially over public-sector wage increases. Alvarado’s weakness will increase the dominance of rival political parties in the legislature.


Significance The run-up to tomorrow's elections has been marred by increasing violence and intimidation of opposition parties, FRELIMO’s inappropriate use of state resources and the exclusion of independent election monitors. While the government struggles to contain the effects of long-running corruption scandals, it is hoping that major liquefied natural gas (LNG) deals will shortly end interlocked fiscal and debt crises. Impacts Election-related manipulation risks undermining the EU-backed peace agreement between FRELIMO and RENAMO. State operations have come to a standstill in recent months, as public sector employees have been mobilised to support FRELIMO’s campaign. Despite promises to settle domestic private sector debts soon, FRELIMO will likely prioritise consolidating its (probable) poll victory.


Subject Indian disinvestment in state-owned enterprises. Significance India’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs), also known as public sector undertakings (PSUs), include central public sector enterprises (CPSEs). Some CPSEs have become more efficient, but the government's tendency is now to privatise rather than reform, with its new policy think-tank recently recommending disinvestment in over 40 PSUs. Impacts The government may seek to disinvest in public-sector banks. Trade unions may launch strikes opposing disinvestment plans. The government may pursue labour reforms to make it easier to recruit and dismiss workers.


Significance As they were 50 years ago, several universities and parts of the transport system will be on strike. Impacts The opposition parties are unable to unite and too weak to fight Macron in isolation, giving him a strong hand until 2022. If the government puts the reform agenda on hold for a few months, it will use the time to prepare the next round of reforms. If Macron is victorious, the ‘radical’ non-reformist trade unions will lose influence in the public sector. Macron might end up earning the French public’s trust and even esteem with his persistence and determination.


Author(s):  
V. I. Denysenko

The failure to sign the Association Agreement with the EU in autumn 2013 has been investigated. The role of the Russian factor, which became decisive in the foreign policy reversal of the Yanukovych regime, has been revealed. The importance of Viktor Yanukovych’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 27, 2013, in the dramatic change of Ukraine’s international vector has been emphasized. On the basis of diplomats’ memoirs, the assumption about intimidation of the Ukrainian President by the Russian side has been substantiated. The timeline of the preparation of the 2013 Vilnius Summit, the position of EU structures and the attempts of the fourth President of Ukraine to win time to trade with the Russians have been reproduced. The thesis about the Donetsk clan’s attempts to prepare public opinion for a 180 degree turn in late October - early November 2013 has been presented. For this purpose, demonstration meetings were organized with representatives of Ukrainian business and trade unions, who called for revision of plans for European integration on their own initiative. The main role in manipulating public opinion rested on the government of Mykola Azarov and the Verkhovna Rada, which had a majority coalition led by the Party of Regions. Instead, Viktor Yanukovych continued his European integration rhetoric and reiterated to Western partners his own willingness to sign the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU. On November 21, the real position of the ruling elite was made available to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. According to it, the process of preparation for the signing of the Association Agreement was suspended, the proposal was made for the trilateral Ukraine-EU-Russia negotiations, and the ministries were tasked with developing measures to maintain economic ties with the CIS countries. The decision was rejected by European partners and led to Yanukovych’s attempts to find other ways to thwart the signing of the Agreement. It has been proved that this role was played by Yanukovych’s requirements for financial assistance from the EU amounting to about 160 billion euros, which aimed to prevent the signing of the Association Agreement. Key words: Viktor Yanukovych, association of Ukraine with the EU, эYulia Tymoshenko, European integration, Pat Cox, Alexander Kwasniewski, Vladimir Putin.


2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 497-518
Author(s):  
Austė Vaznonytė

What role does the rotating Council Presidency maintain a decade after Lisbon? This article argues that, regardless of institutional changes, the rotating Presidency still shapes the Council agenda to a large extent. Based on an original hand-coded dataset of rotating Presidency programmes between 1997 and 2017, I show that some policies are ‘stickier’ on the Council agenda, while the others exhibit significant changes in salience over time. Since the magnitude of these shifts varies from Presidency to Presidency, the analysis focuses on domestic political factors and the country positioning vis-à-vis the European Union to determine their relationship with agenda volatility. By means of a panel model, the examination demonstrates that the government issue salience can best explain the levels of issue salience in the Presidency programmes.


Significance This is still tentative planning but it indicates the Kremlin is being spurred into action by looming curbs on high-carbon products in China and the EU, Russia's key export markets. Russia has so far resisted calls for more ambitious commitments. Impacts Siberian forest fires will focus public attention on the environment, if not global warming. Blame for the wildfires, as with other environmental problems, will be weaponised in elite infighting. The government is interested in developing cheap, green hydrogen. A pilot carbon emissions trading scheme in Sakhalin could be scaled up to other parts of Russia.


2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-118
Author(s):  
Sergejs Stacenko ◽  
Biruta Sloka

AbstractThe article will show major dimensions in the experience of EU Member States that could be shared with the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries. The framework of the study is the EU concept of trade unions in social dialogue and social partnership in the public sector. This study outlines the concept of social dialogue as a core element of industrial relations and will focus on industrial relations specifically in the public sector. The authors have elaborated the approach to industrial relations and social dialogue taking into account comparative approach to definitions provided by international institutions such as ILO and OECD, as well as institutions in the EU and Latvia. Latvia is also a case study for Eastern Partnership countries as these countries and their trade unions are in a transition period from socialist structures to structures that possess liberal economies. Trade unions in these countries are members of the International Trade Union Confederation. The major transformation that trade unions underwent from being part of the socialist system and becoming an independent institution since Latvia regained independence in 1991 has been studied. The paper discusses the current developments related to the position of Latvian Free Trade Union Federation in the system of decision-making process related to the public administration management. Finally, the prospective role of trade unions in the EU and in Latvia is analysed and possible revitalisation of trade union is discussed. This approach could be applied to the Eastern Partners of the EU.


2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 527-544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabiu Abdullahi ◽  
Noorhayati Mansor

Purpose Detecting and preventing fraud are challenging and risky tasks, especially in a fast developing economy such as Nigeria. The efforts become crucial in the government sectors, as they involve public’s trust and resources. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationships between the fraud incidence and the elements of fraud triangle theory (FTT) with the aim of combating current fraud outrages in the Nigerian public sector. Design/methodology/approach A survey was conducted and 302 questionnaires were distributed to the staff of the departments of accounting, internal auditing and investigation of ten selected ministries, departments and agencies of Kano State, Nigeria. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to analyze the data. Findings The study reveals a significant relationship between three elements of FTT and fraud incidences in the Nigerian public sectors (p-value < 0.001 for pressure and opportunity and p-value = 0.024 for rationalization). Practical implications The findings of the study are useful for forensic accountants and the Nigerian anti-graft bodies to enhance existing control mechanisms in fraud prevention initiatives. The research also contributes to bridge the gap in academic theory and empirical study related to FTT. Social implications Fraud scandals can cause public’s frustration, damage the reputation and integrity of the ruling government and result in negative image of the public sector. Originality/value Accordingly, the study suggests a salary scale reform (SSR) in the Nigerian public sector and improvement in fringe benefits to increase employees’ standard of living. The study concludes with recommendations to enhance fraud awareness and training programs to the government employees.


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