Focus in Egypt will shift to direct investment

Subject Economic outlook. Significance Egypt has undergone a sharp, IMF-guided economic transition over the last two years. This has seen a devaluation of the Egyptian pound, sizeable inflows of portfolio investment and a recovery of foreign exchange reserves to record levels. The government has also introduced a raft of new laws designed to encourage foreign direct investment (FDI), although so far little has been invested in the non-oil economy. Impacts A better investment climate may attract FDI that might have gone to neighbouring countries such as Jordan. The success or failure of investment plans will factor into political stability risk. Temporary stability fuelled by hot money inflows and debt could store up future problems in the event of a crisis.

Subject The economic outlook for Fiji. Significance Fiji has returned to political stability and a degree of international legitimacy in recent years, albeit in a context of poor to moderate economic growth. GDP growth of 4.0 % is forecast for 2015, but the outlook for Fiji's main industries (tourism, gold and services) remains stagnant as aggregate regional demand for resources slumps and Fiji's comparative advantage as a regional services hub erodes. Impacts The government will actively promote FDI to boost Fiji's lacklustre economic growth prospects. The government will promote agriculture and fisheries to provide opportunities for disadvantaged rural and ethnic populations. Foreign investment in tourism will probably increase slowly as demand from Asian countries grows. Fiji's dominance in the South Pacific economy will likely diminish as advances in ICT allow it to be bypassed. Ways must be found to prevent loss of trained and educated personnel if Fiji is to maintain its central role.


Subject Jamaica's economic outlook. Significance The government has worked hard to stabilise the economy after several years of uncertainty. Its policies for the next fiscal year, presented by the finance minister on March 12, set out plans to maintain stability and lay the groundwork for re-invigorating growth. Impacts Sluggish growth will only be boosted by improved productivity and a better investment climate. The debt-to-GDP ratio is unlikely to fall to 100% -- until at least 2020. Continued public sector wage freezes risk undermining support for the economic programme.


Subject Political and economic outlook. Significance The national unity government of President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe completed its first year in July. After a phase of poor cohesion and unpopular decisions, the government is regaining public support. Sirisena, leader of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and Wickremesinghe, leader of the United National Party (UNP), have extended their alliance to 2020, boosting political stability. Yet significant economic and political challenges remain. Impacts Dependence on Chinese investment is unavoidable, but Colombo will seek new partners. Rajapaksa will remain the most important political challenge for the government. Ethnic reconciliation is a distant dream, but overt tensions are subsiding.


Subject Political and economic outlook for Papua New Guinea. Significance Papua New Guinea (PNG) has benefitted from over a decade of buoyant economic growth, culminating in a forecast GDP growth rate of 15% in 2015. However, the outlook for PNG's major commodity exports (natural gas and gold) is now declining as aggregate demand for resources falls in China and elsewhere in the region. This will lead to a fall in the growth of overall government revenues. Impacts The price for spot market liquefied natural gas exports to Asia is likely to decline. The government will extend its overall fiscal deficit despite announced intentions to reduce debt under the medium-term fiscal strategy. The much-publicised sovereign wealth fund, announced several times but still not implemented, will continue to languish. Diversifying agriculture and fisheries to provide more options for disadvantaged rural populations and SME development will be slow. Foreign investment in PNG will slow down, particularly in gold, copper and other areas of mining.


Subject Attracting investment. Significance The government passed new investment and industrial licensing laws in May and August as part of a drive to stimulate growth and job creation through increased business activity. Egypt is aiming to attract at least 10 billion dollars of foreign direct investment (FDI) annually by making improvements to the business environment. Impacts The exchange rate reform will continue to lift FDI levels. More investment would boost corporate revenue, but the benefits for the Treasury would be offset by the tax breaks included in the new law. Investment-led growth and falling unemployment may not bolster political stability if the benefits are seen to flow mainly to the elite.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamdi Khalfaoui ◽  
Abdelkader Derbali

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to elucidate the main determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the case of the Arab Maghreb countries. Design/methodology/approach We employ a dynamic panel analysis using the General Method of Moments for a sample composed of 105 countries over the period 1985–2018. Findings We show that FDI stability, market size, higher education enrolment, quality of institutions, distance, sharing of common border, and bilateral investment and integration agreements are the main determinants of FDI location. These determinants are neither general. The potential for attracting FDI from AMU countries is poorly exploited. FDI to the AMU is lower than estimated stock. The observed FDI to potential FDI ratio does not exceed 87%. France and Spain are the main investors in the AMU region thanks to historical and cultural links. The FDI from the United States, Canada, Germany, Belgium, and Japan are below what is expected. Originality/value The contribution of this paper is observed on the examining oh the determinants of the FDI in the Arab Maghreb countries. Our study demonstrate that the political stability can decrease investment risk in these countries. The administrations correspondingly require expanding their rules and strategies with union demonstrations which were at the beginning of the departure and closing of several foreign companies.


2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 190-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah Noman ◽  
Mohammad Nakibur Rahman ◽  
Atsuyuki Naka

Purpose – This paper aims to uncover potential contemporaneous relationship between foreign portfolio investment (FPI) and another popular type of cross-border investment outflow, namely, foreign direct investment (FDI). Design/methodology/approach – The relationship between FPI and FDI are modeled using simultaneous equations approach to take potential endogeneity in to account. In a panel of 45 countries over the period of 2001-2009, FPI and FDI are found to be strategically complimentary to each other. Findings – The two-stage least square estimates suggest existence of both statistically and economically significant relationship between these two types of outflows. In particular, the FDI outflow has empirically significant predictive power in explaining the FPI outflow. Similarly, the FPI outflow also has significant explanatory power for the observed level of FDI outflow. Second, the FPI has greater explanatory power for FDI outflow than the FDI for the FPI outflow. Originality/value – The authors believe that the paper would contribute to the relevant literature in terms of its originality and scope. The empirical findings of the paper have valuable policy implications.


Author(s):  
Nataliia Sytnyk ◽  
Veronika Ishchenko

In modern conditions of functioning of the market economy, in the era of development of globalization and globalization processes, the prevalence of international relations, the spread of various forms of international capital movement, in particular foreign direct investment, an important place is occupied by investment activities and policies implemented by the state within the framework of the latter. It is difficult to overestimate the importance and role of investment, because world experience shows that the effective development of business entities, and therefore the country's economy as a whole, cannot be imagined without making investments. Therefore, the government of almost any country in the world is focused on creating a favorable investment climate. The article defines the theoretical foundations of investment security of the state: the essence of the concept is outlined, the principles on which investment security is based, its place and role in the state's economic security system are justified. Qualitative and quantitative criteria for a comprehensive assessment of the state's investment security are presented. The calculation and analysis of the main indicators – quantitative criteria of investment security: gross accumulation of fixed capital; the degree of accumulation of fixed capital; the ratio of the cost of newly introduced fixed assets to the volume of capital investments is carried out; the ratio of net growth of foreign direct investment to GDP; the size of the Ukrainian economy as a percentage of global GDP. The dynamics of the total volume of foreign direct investment in the Ukrainian economy in the context of world countries is analyzed. The main investor countries that ensure the receipt of the largest volumes of investment flows to the Ukrainian economy are identified. Ukraine's place in the World Bank's “Doing Business” rating over the past ten years has been demonstrated. The positive dynamics regarding Ukraine's place in the World Bank's “Doing Business” rating and the main factors that influenced such positive changes were noted. The investment climate of the state is assessed and possible measures are proposed to improve the mechanism of managing the state's investment security.


Significance The government is nevertheless shaken. Protests were triggered by severe economic hardship, and reflect a loss of public confidence that the government can improve matters. The state’s repressive response has led to expressions of disconformity from individuals hitherto loyal to the system, which may signal emerging fissures within the ruling elite. Impacts Piecemeal reforms, announced to appease protesters, will do little to improve Cubans’ lives. Sweeping reforms are unlikely as they would strain elite cohesion. Diaz-Canel’s handling of the crisis illustrates the limitations of his authority. Perceptions of elite unity, long key to political stability, are now problematic, offering little flexibility or hope of change.


2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 338-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Choo-Hui Park ◽  
Hankyu Chu

Purpose The Government of Korea institutionalized the World Korean Business Convention (WKBC) and the World Korean Business Network (WKBN) to promote Korean diaspora entrepreneurs’ investment in the homeland. Few studies have examined the effectiveness of the WKBC and WKBN and the critical variables affecting them. This paper aims to fill this gap by exploring important variables affecting Korean diaspora entrepreneurs’ investment in the homeland. It also seeks to examine the relationships among these variables to inquire upon a set of critical questions pertaining to Korean diaspora entrepreneurs’ investment in the homeland including the effectiveness of the WKBC and WKBN. Design/methodology/approach To achieve the above purpose, critical variables influencing Korean diaspora entrepreneurs’ investment in the homeland were identified and four hypotheses that include the inquiries pertaining to the effectiveness of the WKBC and WKBN were developed in terms of those variables. The hypotheses were empirically tested using the survey data gathered from the participants of the annual WKBC. Findings The current research found that Korean diaspora entrepreneurs’ evaluation of the investment climate in the homeland was not favorable. The WKBC was positively evaluated by Korean diaspora entrepreneurs willing to make investment, There is discrepancy between expectations of the WKBN’s target group (i.e. Korean diaspora entrepreneurs willing to make investment) and its performance for the group, and there is a difference between ascending and descending Korean diaspora entrepreneurs in assessment of investment value of the homeland. Originality/value A majority of studies on diaspora entrepreneurship and development have so far cast light on ascending diaspora entrepreneurs while neglecting descending diaspora entrepreneurs. In this regard, the most interesting finding of the current study to both researchers and policymakers may be the fact that descending Korean diaspora entrepreneurs assess the investment value of the homeland differently from ascending Korea diaspora entrepreneurs. The finding calls for further research on causes of the difference, and different natures of descending diaspora entrepreneurs compared to those of ascending diaspora entrepreneurs. Such research will enable policymakers to formulate and implement effective strategic diaspora policies that take the differences into consideration.


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