Prospects for Russian domestic politics in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Large Majority ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Stimulus ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Stimulus Package

Subject Prospects for Russian domestic politics in 2019. Significance Although President Vladimir Putin was re-elected with a large majority in 2018, widely held grievances about pension reform and economic hardship present challenges to which the authorities are proving unable or unwilling to respond adequately. Putin's six-year economic stimulus package faces many obstacles and its mid-to-long-term aims mean it cannot deliver a swift political pay-off.

scholarly journals Taiwan's budgetary responses to COVID-19: the use of special budgets

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei-Jie Liao ◽  
Nai-Ling Kuo ◽  
Shih-Hsien Chuang
Keyword(s):  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
News Reports ◽  
Economic Stimulus ◽  
Fiscal Implications ◽  
Taiwanese Government

PurposeThe authors examine the Taiwanese government's budgetary responses to COVID-19, with a focus on the special budgets created for containing the virus, undertaking bailouts and providing economic stimulus. The authors assess the short-term and long-term fiscal implications of the budgetary measures and discuss how Taiwan's experiences could provide lessons for other countries for future emergencies.Design/methodology/approachThe authors collect data from Taiwan's official documents and news reports and compare the special budgets proposed by the Taiwanese government during the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors discuss lessons learned from the 2008–09 special budget and possible concerns of the 2020 special budgets. In the conclusions, the authors discuss potential long-term implications for Taiwan's budgetary system as well as possible lessons for other countries based on Taiwan's experiencesFindingsThe authors found that the 2008–09 special budgets focused only on economic stimulus, whereas the 2020 special budgets covered COVID-19 treatments, bailouts and economic stimulus. In 2020, the Taiwanese government devised targeted bailout plans for industries and individuals most affected by the pandemic and created the Triple Stimulus Vouchers to boost the economy. Since the special budgets were largely funded through borrowing, the authors pointed out concerns for fiscal sustainability and intergenerational equity.Originality/valueCOVID-19 has changed how the world functions massively. This work adds to the literature on COVID-19 by providing Taiwan's budgetary responses to the pandemic. This work also identifies ways for Taiwan to improve the existing budgetary system and discusses lessons for other countries.

Brazil faces stagnation risk in 2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Business Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject The risk that the Brazilian economy will stagnate, rather than recover, this year. Significance The recent passage of legislation freezing government spending and the ambitious pension reform currently under discussion in Congress are the flagship policies of the government of President Michel Temer. Both seek to defuse Brazil’s fiscal time bomb in the long term. However, they offer little support to immediate expansion in an economy that not only has been in recession since the second quarter of 2014 but is also locked in a low-growth trap will few apparent short-term escape routes. Impacts Popular dissatisfaction may trigger a new wave of demonstrations, further weakening the government. As long as the fiscal crisis persists, the government’s ability to stimulate the economy will be limited. Political risk will be a crucial factor in business investment decisions in Brazil.

Election result will tone down Turkey's foreign policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Turkish Foreign Policy ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
Political Clout ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Policy Shifts

Subject The June 7 elections' consequences for Turkish foreign policy. Significance The elections are the first setback since 2002 for the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has dominated and in many ways transformed Turkish foreign policy. The AKP's unquestioned prowess in domestic politics had rendered foreign policy almost a non-issue, with courses of action being determined by the party alone, even when the opposition voiced criticism. The elections have undermined AKP's grip on power and will lead to a weaker coalition, minority government or period of acute political uncertainty, if not instability, defined by possible early elections by late-2015. Impacts Turkey will adopt a more 'toned-down' discourse and policy on such divisive issues domestically as the Syrian civil war. Major policy shifts in long-term trends, including Turkey's EU, US and Russian relationships, are unlikely. Erdogan will probably adopt a 'softer' discourse with the West, moderating his former confrontational attitude. Potential for tensions exist with the increasing political clout and territorial reach of the Syrian Kurdish militia.

Inequality progress key to aid Chile long-term growth

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Economic Inequality ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Commission ◽  
The Caribbean

Subject Social and economic inequality. Significance After its progress in reducing poverty, highlighted by a recent report of the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Chile faces the complex and socially divisive challenge of tackling its deep-rooted economic and social inequalities. Impacts The key problem in addressing poverty will be its concentration in specific groups of the population. Some of the government’s planned reforms, such as pension reform, would help to improve income distribution. The outcome of the government’s Country Undertaking initiative will depend on its ability to implement the resulting ideas.

Gulf rivals will likely increase US lobbying efforts

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Influence ◽  
Gulf States

Subject Gulf states lobbying in the United States. Significance The Gulf states have long been among the largest spenders on lobbying initiatives in the United States, promoting their economic interests and perspectives on regional geopolitics. This has intensified since 2017 as the Qatar dispute has polarised the region and both sides have sought to win over crucial US decision-makers. These efforts have often backfired and drawn accusations of improper behaviour that could damage bilateral relationships and may affect US domestic politics. Impacts Others considering influencing US policy will look carefully at the successes but also the controversies this lobbying has generated. There is a risk of long-term damage to some Gulf-US relationships amid growing suspicion of foreign influence. Robert Mueller’s probe into the Trump campaign and Russia, which may conclude this year, may also implicate some Gulf states.

Mauritanian president to keep firm control for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Petroleum Sector ◽  
The One

Significance The government initiated the talks with a view to defusing tensions in domestic politics. Opposition parties boycotted the one-sided presidential election in 2014 that brought President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz to power for a second time since his 2009 win. Abdel Aziz initially came to power in a coup in 2008, and dominates politics along with his Union for the Republic (UPR) party. Impacts Economic growth will be driven primarily by the mining and petroleum sector. Mining companies may scale back their investment plans further. Economic hardship and discrimination may lead to more protests, but these will be limited.

Poland's pension reform may undermine public finances

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Pension Reform ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Market Growth ◽  
To Receive

Significance The zloty resumed a depreciating trend on July 4, following the announcement of radical pension reform by Development Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. A combination of investor unease over the new proposals and jittery equity markets following the UK's referendum vote to leave the EU ('Brexit'), which has pushed up yields on long-term government bonds, will weigh on Polish business sentiment and fixed investment in the second half of 2016. Impacts Poland's capital market is likely to receive a setback in the short term, with fewer listings on WIG20, as some pension funds leave Poland. Locally owned investment vehicles will gradually come to play a greater role. Labour market growth and rising domestic demand will help offset investor jitters or sluggish private investment activity later in 2016. While pension reform will provide a short-term boost to public finances, public debt will rise after 2017, absent any fiscal consolidation.

Russian president may regret 'owning' pension reform

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Communist Party ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Current Leadership ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Regional Elections

Significance Opposition to the retirement age increase is widespread, with frequent street protests, Communist successes in the regional elections and talk of a referendum. President Vladimir Putin initially stayed out of the debate but finally stepped in on August 29, offering some concessions but backing the thrust of the reform in a television address to the nation. Impacts The pension reform controversy shows the limits to Putin's vision of a purely technocratic, apolitical government. The issue also highlights the deficiencies of state-controlled narratives when people do not want to listen. The Communist Party has a rare chance to grow into a stronger force but is unlikely to seize this opportunity under its current leadership.

TurkStream would fit into Bulgaria’s plan for gas hub

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Russian President ◽  
South Eastern Europe ◽  
Nord Stream ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Transit Routes ◽  
The Eu

Subject Revived plans to transit Russian gas through Bulgaria into Europe and build a nuclear plant at Belene. Significance Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in extending the TurkStream natural gas pipeline into the EU and is counting on the European Commission and member states to show the same flexibility already seen in the case of Nord Stream. Although the EU-sponsored Southern Gas Corridor is boosting Gazprom’s competitors, Russia could gain advantage by accessing the new transit infrastructure. Impacts Ties to Russia will once again become a hot issue in Bulgarian domestic politics. New transit routes would bring down gas prices and boost consumption by industry and households across South-eastern Europe. High costs and political risk will limit the development of nuclear energy in Bulgaria and the region.

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