Russian president may regret 'owning' pension reform

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Communist Party ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Current Leadership ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Regional Elections

Significance Opposition to the retirement age increase is widespread, with frequent street protests, Communist successes in the regional elections and talk of a referendum. President Vladimir Putin initially stayed out of the debate but finally stepped in on August 29, offering some concessions but backing the thrust of the reform in a television address to the nation. Impacts The pension reform controversy shows the limits to Putin's vision of a purely technocratic, apolitical government. The issue also highlights the deficiencies of state-controlled narratives when people do not want to listen. The Communist Party has a rare chance to grow into a stronger force but is unlikely to seize this opportunity under its current leadership.

Prospects for Russian domestic politics in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Large Majority ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Stimulus ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Stimulus Package

Subject Prospects for Russian domestic politics in 2019. Significance Although President Vladimir Putin was re-elected with a large majority in 2018, widely held grievances about pension reform and economic hardship present challenges to which the authorities are proving unable or unwilling to respond adequately. Putin's six-year economic stimulus package faces many obstacles and its mid-to-long-term aims mean it cannot deliver a swift political pay-off.

Lack of people may be Russia's greatest challenge

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Premature Death ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
The Caucasus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Working People ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Significance The population is set to shrink until at least 2036. To support labour productivity as a factor for GDP growth, President Vladimir Putin has set out plans to encourage families and reduce premature death that may realistically slow but not reverse the trend. Impacts Opposition groups will try to capitalise on popular discontent provoked by impending increases in retirement age. New individual financial savings products are needed to help working people plan for future. Permanent immigration from Central Asia and the Caucasus will deplete those countries' labour forces, harming growth prospects.

TurkStream will need Russian gas discount deal

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
New Deal ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
European Markets

Subject The Russo-Turkish intergovernmental TurkStream agreement. Significance An agreement signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan on October 10 envisages a 31.5-billion-cubic-metres/year (bcm/y) natural gas transit line under the Black Sea and through Turkey to the Turkish-Greek border. One of two parallel pipes would supply 15.75 bcm/y gas to Turkey, replacing an existing pipeline. The second would export the same volume to European markets via a planned border 'hub' and export route yet to be announced. Impacts TurkStream's extra volume will increase Turkish dependence on Russian gas but allow more supply flexibility during peak winter demand. Delivering more Russian gas to Central-Eastern Europe will make it more difficult for other potential gas suppliers to secure market share. The agreement will bring Ankara and Moscow closer and may be followed by a new deal to restart the frozen Akkuyu nuclear plant.

Putin will stand back from Russia's Duma polls

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Communist Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Force ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The Russian president's options for winning September elections. Significance The September 2016 elections to Russia's parliament, the State Duma, are the first to coincide with a severe economic crisis since President Vladimir Putin came to power. The authorities are determined to prevent social discontent escalating into the kind of protests seen after the last polls in December 2011, which unsettled Putin's plans for re-election in March 2012. Popular support for Putin remains high, and 'loyal opposition' parties such as the Communists are blaming economic problems on Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev instead. Impacts Signs that the recession is slowing will reduce the scope for a protest vote. Putin is keen to get EU sanctions lifted by July, not least for the electoral benefits. Buoyed by growing popular support, the Communist Party may evolve into a more active political force.

Multipartner military exercises may become flashpoints

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Military Exercises ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Do So

Significance The exercise was described by NATO as a "show of force", while the Dutch foreign minister referred to it as "a warning" to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Multinational military exercises have become more frequent over the past 25 years. The United States participates in dozens of exercises annually and spends billions of dollars to do so. However, there are significant questions over the utility and purpose of such multinational exercises, which serve both a practical function for the militaries involved, as well as a diplomatic signaling effect. Impacts Like BALTOPS, regular exercises will assume greater salience when their regional focus sees new external threats. This could prompt policy changes from adversaries, as they attempt to respond to the exercises. As a result, exercises designed to deter may risk escalating tensions.

Low gas prices drive Turkmenistan to seek volume sales

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Security ◽  
Social Stability ◽  
Legal Action ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Subject Turkmenistan's gas diplomacy. Significance Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov met Russian President Vladimir Putin on November 1 during his first visit to Russia since 2011. They reportedly discussed trade, regional security and most importantly bilateral gas arrangements. Russian energy giant Gazprom announced a week later that it had suspended legal action against its Turkmen counterpart Turkmengaz, but did not offer to resume gas purchases. Impacts A prolonged period of low gas prices would create risks to social stability. Turkmenistan's desire to mend fences with Russia will be constrained by its reluctance to join Moscow-led regional blocs. Russia and a resurgent Iran will try to blunt Turkmenistan's ambition to become a significant gas supplier to Europe.

Trump UK visit carries risks for May

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Military Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Significance The visit, sandwiched between the July 11-12 NATO Summit and July 16 meeting of Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, returns UK Prime Minister Theresa May's trip to Washington in January 2017. Impacts The post-Brexit UK-EU deal could scupper a UK-US free trade deal. Trump’s visit may see some new UK-US business deals, and new security and military cooperation pledges. New UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt will need to build ties with Trump and his administration.

United Russia party back in favour with no new ideas

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Training School ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Policy Ideas ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
Meaningful Role ◽  
Party Congress

Subject The United Russia party's search for a meaningful role. Significance President Vladimir Putin has reaffirmed the central role of the governing United Russia party but instructed it to improve its performance. He was speaking on day two of a December 7-8 party congress held in the aftermath of reverses in regional elections and falling popular support. The party duly promised to mend its ways with a training school to raise standards and new ethics procedures, but offered no new policy ideas. Impacts Putin snubbed United Russia by being re-elected as an independent but has turned back to the party in hope of reinvigorating it. United Russia has no collective voice on foreign policy issues such as Ukraine or Western sanctions; it must stick to its assigned role. The Kremlin will watch United Russia's regional governors closely and assess their ability to contain local grievances. If United Russia is failing, the Kremlin may have to examine alternative mechanisms for picking Putin's successor.

Chile pension reform will not address grievances

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Pension System ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
Living Standard ◽  
The Political ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The One ◽  
Chilean Population

Subject Pension reform plans. Significance A pension reform, announced by President Sebastian Pinera on October 28, treads a cautious path between the conflicting pressures of public anger with low pensions and the lack of legitimacy of Chile’s private pension system, on the one hand, and the political difficulty of increasing the retirement age and constraints on public spending, on the other. Impacts With the Chilean population ageing rapidly, pensions will become an ever more important election issue. The left argues that the proposed reform will represent only a fine-tuning of the structurally flawed AFP system. Despite the proposed measures, retirement would still mean a significantly lower living standard for much of the middle class.

Compromise options yet to emerge in Ukraine talks

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Significance The first four-party summit in three years gave President Volodymyr Zelensky his first introduction to the 'Normandy format', and also to Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom he also had a separate meeting. Zelensky was elected on a promise to bring peace but has been consistently warned by opponents that giving too much away would count as betrayal. In that sense the summit was a success for him: little was agreed but the atmospherics were positive. Impacts Progress on peace is unlikely to be fast enough to prevent EU sanctions on Russia, which run to June, being extended to end-December. Zelensky's success in not making concessions will reduce the intensity of domestic opposition, but not for long. The revival of talks creates space for Zelensky's team to focus on economic policy and governance.

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