TurkStream would fit into Bulgaria’s plan for gas hub

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Russian President ◽  
South Eastern Europe ◽  
Nord Stream ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Transit Routes ◽  
The Eu

Subject Revived plans to transit Russian gas through Bulgaria into Europe and build a nuclear plant at Belene. Significance Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in extending the TurkStream natural gas pipeline into the EU and is counting on the European Commission and member states to show the same flexibility already seen in the case of Nord Stream. Although the EU-sponsored Southern Gas Corridor is boosting Gazprom’s competitors, Russia could gain advantage by accessing the new transit infrastructure. Impacts Ties to Russia will once again become a hot issue in Bulgarian domestic politics. New transit routes would bring down gas prices and boost consumption by industry and households across South-eastern Europe. High costs and political risk will limit the development of nuclear energy in Bulgaria and the region.

Most Balkan states will now give up on South Stream

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Bargaining Power ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Russian President ◽  
South Stream ◽  
South Eastern Europe ◽  
Balkan States ◽  
The Eu

Significance In the weeks after the energy earthquake generated by Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement that Russia was cancelling plans to construct the South Stream gas pipeline across the Black Sea, tremors and aftershocks are still reverberating around South-Eastern Europe. Hopes that the announcement was a bluff intended to increase Russia's bargaining power with Brussels, or that South Stream can be revived, seem misconceived. Impacts Passing the blame for the cancellation onto the EU is unlikely to work, in part thanks to the way in which Putin broke the news. Russia will lose significant leverage over the participant countries, particularly those in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. The biggest winner could be the EU, assuming it steps into the energy vacuum and helps countries secure alternative supply routes.

Revived Russian-Turkish gas project is less ambitious

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Third Party ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Original Plan ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
The Eu

Subject The decision to restart the TurkStream natural gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey. Significance The agreement on August 9 between Russian and Turkish Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan to resume the TurkStream project relaunches their partnership in the energy sector. This had been frozen as a result of Turkey's shooting down of Russian Su-24 jet last November. Impacts Turkey could start importing up to 15.75 bcm additional natural gas under the Black Sea by 2019. Such a reduced amount compared with the original plan would seem to allow room in the Turkish gas market for rival suppliers. TurkStream could be extended into the EU only if the European Commission and Gazprom compromise on third-party access to the pipeline.

Ukraine-Russia ties will weaken with EU deal

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Area ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Free Trade Zone ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Food Imports ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
The Eu

Subject The EU-Ukraine trade agreement. Significance The delayed EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) will start in January. The accord is set to strengthen ties between the EU and Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the ending of a free-trade zone with Ukraine, arguing that the new Kyiv-EU deal will harm Russia's economy. Also, in retaliation for Kyiv's participation in sanctions against Russia, the Kremlin has ordered an embargo against Ukraine food imports into Russia, which could cost Kyiv 300-600 million dollars per year. Impacts Ukraine will continue to reorient itself and sell food and products to other markets, such as Turkey and Israel. An influx of imports from the EU could prove a serious challenge to many local producers and thus should stimulate reforms. Termination of Ukraine trade with annexed Crimea from mid-January will weaken Kyiv-Moscow ties further.

German-Russian ties should survive Navalny attack

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North West ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
The North ◽  
Intelligence Services ◽  
Nord Stream ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Eu

Significance Leading politicians have called for the cancellation for the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, while NATO and the EU are considering fresh sanctions on Russian individuals in the military and intelligence services. Impacts Germany will likely increase its capacity for importing US LNG, focusing on the Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbuettel terminals in the north-west. Russia's questioning of Germany's investigation of the poisoning will make Berlin more vigilant over Russian disinformation efforts. Continuing to 'work' with Russia could undermine German credibility in Poland, the Baltic states and Ukraine.

Legitimising illiberalism is Trump legacy to Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Good Reason ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Head Of State ◽  
The Us ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
The Eu

Subject Trump enthusiasts in Central-Eastern Europe. Significance Some of the most vocal and high-ranking supporters abroad of the Republican candidate for the US presidency, Donald Trump, are in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE). The first sitting head of state or government to endorse Trump's bid was Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban; he has been joined by Czech President Milos Zeman. Given Trump's hints at waiving the US commitment to defending this strategically volatile region, this may mask a degree of cognitive dissonance. However, CEE leaders are pursuing domestic games and betting on the star of illiberalism rising, with good reason. Impacts The EU will face disunity and, potentially, disintegration, should it not alter its current 'single-speed' form. Russian President Vladimir Putin will get a freer hand; provocations against NATO and neighbouring states are likely to be ramped up. The appeal of the Western liberal order will dissipate and new, illiberal forms of development will proliferate in the world.

TurkStream will compete in a complex Balkan gas market

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Black Sea ◽  
Supply Contracts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
South Eastern Europe ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Nord Stream ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Eu

Significance With TurkStream, Russia has opened a new export route to the EU through South-eastern Europe under the Black Sea: Bulgaria, Greece and North Macedonia are receiving Russian gas through Turkey. Russian gas giant Gazprom is now less dependent on transit through Ukraine, although the larger Nord Stream 2 pipeline under the Baltic is being delayed and the Ukrainian route will continue serving Central Europe for the time being. Impacts Plans for a floating storage regasification unit at Alexandroupolis in north-eastern Greece will make headway. Access to LNG will give customers leverage over Gazprom when long-term supply contracts are renegotiated in the 2020s. As TurkStream brings not new but rerouted gas (except for new customers) it will not raise dependence on Russia.

French EU presidency will focus on strategic autonomy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strategic Autonomy ◽  
The Eu

Significance Macron's priorities will include strengthening EU autonomy in areas such as defence and digital security, promoting the role of nuclear energy as ‘sustainable’ and advancing progress towards an EU minimum wage. Impacts Domestic politics and energy goals will render France less confrontational than other western members towards Hungary and Poland. The French presidency will focus on strengthening European coordination and cooperation regarding strategy in the Indo-Pacific. France is unlikely to use its presidency to intensify efforts to ratify the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment.

THE FAILURE TO SIGN THE UKRAINE-EU ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT (OCTOBER-NOVEMBER 2013)

2019 ◽  
pp. 30-45
Author(s):  
V. I. Denysenko
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
European Integration ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Main Role ◽  
Ruling Elite ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Russian President ◽  
The Government ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
The Eu

The failure to sign the Association Agreement with the EU in autumn 2013 has been investigated. The role of the Russian factor, which became decisive in the foreign policy reversal of the Yanukovych regime, has been revealed. The importance of Viktor Yanukovych’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 27, 2013, in the dramatic change of Ukraine’s international vector has been emphasized. On the basis of diplomats’ memoirs, the assumption about intimidation of the Ukrainian President by the Russian side has been substantiated. The timeline of the preparation of the 2013 Vilnius Summit, the position of EU structures and the attempts of the fourth President of Ukraine to win time to trade with the Russians have been reproduced. The thesis about the Donetsk clan’s attempts to prepare public opinion for a 180 degree turn in late October - early November 2013 has been presented. For this purpose, demonstration meetings were organized with representatives of Ukrainian business and trade unions, who called for revision of plans for European integration on their own initiative. The main role in manipulating public opinion rested on the government of Mykola Azarov and the Verkhovna Rada, which had a majority coalition led by the Party of Regions. Instead, Viktor Yanukovych continued his European integration rhetoric and reiterated to Western partners his own willingness to sign the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU. On November 21, the real position of the ruling elite was made available to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. According to it, the process of preparation for the signing of the Association Agreement was suspended, the proposal was made for the trilateral Ukraine-EU-Russia negotiations, and the ministries were tasked with developing measures to maintain economic ties with the CIS countries. The decision was rejected by European partners and led to Yanukovych’s attempts to find other ways to thwart the signing of the Agreement. It has been proved that this role was played by Yanukovych’s requirements for financial assistance from the EU amounting to about 160 billion euros, which aimed to prevent the signing of the Association Agreement. Key words: Viktor Yanukovych, association of Ukraine with the EU, эYulia Tymoshenko, European integration, Pat Cox, Alexander Kwasniewski, Vladimir Putin.

Next Dutch government will likely be ‘greener’

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Dutch Government ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Targets ◽  
A Priority ◽  
The Eu

Significance Government formation should have been relatively straightforward but a series of political controversies have damaged VVD leader and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s credibility with the CU and some opposition parties. Impacts The collective rise of the far-right vote means the far right will continue to worry centrist parties and thus influence government policy. Investment in nuclear energy to meet climate targets is unlikely to be a priority for the new government. Dutch influence in the EU could grow with the departure of Merkel in September, and Macron’s focus on the 2022 election.

Raising its Balkan profile will cost Russia little

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Security Architecture ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
The Eu

Subject Russia's contacts with Balkans political parties. Significance For Moscow, connections with Balkan parties are an instrument to exert influence in a region falling within the West's sphere. The declaration the ruling United Russia party signed with parties from Serbia, Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH), Macedonia and Bulgaria on June 27 called for military neutrality in a Balkan zone of neutral sovereign states within a new pan-European continental security architecture that would exclude NATO membership and hark back to the Yugoslav policy of non-alignment. Impacts Russia will balance NATO expansion into the Western Balkans with initiatives to increase its influence in the region's domestic politics. Moscow will tacitly accept the Balkans' integration into the EU. Russia will seek to diversify alliances, cooperating with both mainstream pragmatists and radicals calling for a turn away from the West.

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