Chinese investment will fuel Israeli security concerns

Significance Chinese companies have made several recent investments in Israeli infrastructure projects, and technology has also emerged as a focus of a growing bilateral relationship as China seeks to tap into Israeli innovation. For its part, the Israeli government hopes to capitalise on the technology partnership to strengthen its relationship with Beijing and diversify ties away from economic and political reliance on the West. Impacts Israel is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and Chinese companies will pursue new infrastructure opportunities where possible. The bilateral technology relationship is critical because China’s trade with and non-technology investment in Israel are relatively small. The security relationship with Washington will endure, and may restrict Chinese involvement in Israel.

Subject Shifts in Chinese investment in Central-Eastern Europe. Significance Initial enthusiasm for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE), driven by the region’s often critical need for infrastructure investment, has ebbed. Impacts Beijing’s interests will decide which investment opportunities are pursued in CEE. From the CEE side, China will not always receive favourable investment terms and EU cohesion is not necessarily under threat. Scepticism about the soundness of Chinese companies will rise after a number of well-publicised debt defaults.


Significance Senior US officials see Communist-led China as the foremost threat to the United States. The Trump administration’s campaign against it spans the spectrum of government actions: criticism; tariffs; sanctions; regulatory crackdowns; military intimidation; support for Taiwan; and restrictions on imports, exports, investment and visas. Impacts Beijing will have little success in driving a wedge between Washington and its major Western allies. The West is unlikely to produce a convincing alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Negative public views of China incentivise China-bashing by politicians, which in turn feeds negative public opinion in a downward spiral. Beijing will persist in its efforts to encourage a more positive view of China among Western publics.


Subject Chinese investment in India. Significance China is one of the fastest-growing sources of foreign direct investment (FDI) in India. The two countries are trying to stabilise bilateral relations that deteriorated after a tense 73-day border dispute in mid-2017. Impacts Chinese companies’ demand for Mandarin-speaking manpower in India will rise. With India having launched e-business visas for Chinese nationals, cross-border business trips will increase. Delhi’s deepening security relationship with Washington, Tokyo and Canberra will prompt distrust in Beijing.


Subject The implications of the Belt and Road Initiative for the energy sector. Significance One of the aims of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is to increase the stability of the country's many neighbours by supporting their economic development, in part by developing their energy sectors. Improving China's own energy security is another. Impacts Electricity provision in BRI countries will improve, creating better conditions for industry and extending electrification programmes. BRI countries will become increasingly indebted to China, some of them unsustainably so. Chinese investment in power plants may encourage development of regional trading pools, encouraging development of an 'Asian supergrid'.


Subject Prospects Belt and Road in Central Asia. Significance The Central Asian states are the focus of investment associated with the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB), the westward overland part of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The SREB offers them a unique chance to become central transport hubs rather than peripheral, landlocked territories but they are also seeking to build productive and export capacity through Chinese investment.


Significance The BSN's most immediate objective is to promote international trade by enabling smart contracts and supply chain tracing. It is often mentioned alongside other Chinese initiatives aimed at facilitating trade, most importantly the Belt and Road Initiative. Impacts The West will be suspicious of the BSN, and if it becomes widely adopted it could elicit some kind of pushback or attempts to counter it. The BSN could improve the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturers by cutting costs and improving quality and security. In conjunction with the Digital Yuan, the BSN will advance China's efforts to create a universal digital payments system.


Subject Chinese investment in CEE. Significance At a meeting in Budapest in late November, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and 16 Central-East Europe (CEE) leaders agreed plans for 3 billion dollars of Chinese investment in the region. This and the event itself were symbolic of Chinese economic ambitions in CEE, part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Impacts Far smaller in volume, Chinese investment may appear to balance out EU funds, allowing more political wriggle room for CEE leaders. Chinese investment will directly challenge Russia’s economic influence, allowing CEE countries more foreign policy latitude. Chinese investment is likely to help sustain oligarchic power structures across the region. Competition for Chinese investments will further erode solidarity, especially in the Visegrad group.


Significance China's ambitious space programme suffered a setback last month when the newest and most powerful addition to the Long March rocket family, the Long March-5, was destroyed by a malfunction shortly after a launch. This was the third and most serious Long March failure over the past year. Impacts The consistency of political commitment to China's space programme will not waver. China's space industry will integrate itself into the Belt and Road Initiative. China is unlikely to allow its space industry the autonomy and freewheeling entrepreneurialism that characterises 'New Space' in the West.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
William G. Dzekashu ◽  
Julius N. Anyu

The West, chiefly Europe, left political footmarks in Africa from the Colonial Era, along with varying economic footprints and surviving engagements in the immediate Post-colonial Era. However, the relationships between Africa and her former colonial masters have hardly yielded much to the former following the wave of independence, leading to the perception of failed relationships. This perception of failure to deliver on their undertakings has left Africa with only one option—China. The latter has been addressing some of Africa’s urgent infrastructure needs in return for natural resources and agricultural products. These engagements on the surface appear to be good business, but on further examination seem questionable notably as it relates to debt distress on vulnerable economies. To increase her footprint within the continent, China extended her Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to most African nations who have signed a memorandum of understanding for future development projects. Though the commitments usually are unspecified, China’s investments have seen rapid growth since the early 2000s, largely owing to the implementation of the BRI. The memoranda have had the potential to strengthen ties with partner nations. The expansion to include Africa in its economic participation in the BRI has left the West questioning China’s motives while reinforcing suspicions about possible future US-China conflict. The impact of BRI on the African continent is quite visible in all the subregions, especially in their improved gross domestic products. A burning question has been whether these partnerships represent win-win relationships for sustainable growth or debt-growth dynamics.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Enderwick

Purpose The continuation of China’s belt and road initiative (BRI) is assumed in most analyses. Yet, recent events have created significant reputational damage for China and Chinese businesses. With a trade war evolving into a hegemonic struggle, there are a number of potential developments that could derail the BRI. This paper aims to provide a contemporary review of the factors that could negatively impact its continuation, and what China has done to mitigate the risks. Design/methodology/approach A descriptive paper that groups possible disruptive factors into three groups: internal weaknesses of the BRI and its design; those related to China’s implementation of the BRI and external concerns and pressures. Findings China has actively reviewed and refined the BRI to reduce its perceived weaknesses and increase its attractiveness to potential participants, focussing on debt dependency, transparency and governance. However, this has occurred at the same time as growing concerns regarding China’s international assertiveness, the hegemonic challenge and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Research limitations/implications These changes are occurring within an extremely dynamic environment and any analysis at one point in time is subject to considerable limitations. However, the paper brings together a range of disparate perspectives in a structured manner. Originality/value The classification of possible threats to the BRI is original and provides insights into the relative significance of the diverse challenges that China faces. The paper concludes that while China’s operational focus on the mechanics of the BRI process is necessary, it may not be sufficient to ensure its continuing development. The paper identifies the next step which is conceptualisation of these ideas and of the BRI. Some guidance as to how this might be done is provided.


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