A pattern of arrests in Iran will intensify

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
National Security ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consensus Mean

Significance Since the major anti-government protests in January 2018, Tehran has engaged in a gradual but growing campaign of repression against civil society and economic actors, arresting activists and dual nationals on national security charges and businesspeople for corruption and currency manipulation. Increasing activism in outlying provinces has also resulted in an uptick in arrests among minority groups. Impacts Fears of a popular backlash and the lack of elite consensus mean a wholesale social crackdown is improbable. All sides will talk up a tough line on corruption amid popular anger over economic conditions. Tensions with the United States will not be resolved before elections in both countries take place.

Indonesian cybersecurity faces geopolitical hurdles

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Data Protection ◽  
Personal Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Personal Data Protection ◽  
State Surveillance ◽  
Data Protection Law

Significance Such programmes contribute not only to Indonesia’s efforts to boost the cyber readiness of its booming digital economy, but are also designed to maintain China's friendly relations with South-east Asia’s largest economy amid the intensifying technology tensions between China and the United States. Impacts The Personal Data Protection Law would need to clarify key provisions and concepts to be effective. The BSSN’s extensive powers will fuel civil society concerns about excessive state surveillance. Turning down Chinese technology suppliers carries cost and wider economic ramifications for Jakarta.

Crises and 'pivot' will boost US intelligence agencies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intelligence Community ◽  
National Security Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Public Scrutiny

Subject The US intelligence community in a year after purported reforms. Significance On December 29, an agreement between the United States, Japan and South Korea to share intelligence on North Korea went into effect. This ended a year in which the US intelligence community was the subject of broad domestic public scrutiny in the light of continued fallout from former National Security Agency (NSA) contractor Edward Snowden's leaks to a Senate report on the CIA's use of torture. The White House's support for reforms has been watched by tech and telecoms businesses that have lost considerable revenue from reputational damage as a result of the growing awareness of requirements on them of US intelligence activities. Impacts The Obama administration will rely on the US intelligence community as its main counterterrorist instrument. A Republican Congress will be less likely to support intelligence reforms, though only marginally so. There is no indication that the balance of power on intelligence issues between the executive and legislative branches has shifted.

Lobbying could increase US populism

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Campaign Finance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Law Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Second Amendment ◽  
Reform Debate

Significance The pro-gun lobby is one of the most influential in the United States and resists attempts to curtail Second Amendment (“right to … bear arms”) freedoms. At the heart of the pending gun-law reform debate is the power that lobbyists and ‘big money’ have over US lawmakers and elections. Impacts Lobbying will increasingly benefit the economically wealthy, including businesses and well-funded civil society groups. The controversy over alleged nefarious Russian influence in US elections could lead to higher scrutiny of campaign finance sources. If the mismatch between voters and laws grows too large, this could drive more populist politics and candidates.

Ankara hopes its Syrian invasion may now go ahead

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type

Subject Turkish objectives in Syria. Significance US Senator Lindsey Graham’s visit to Ankara on January 18 passed off in an exceptionally cordial atmosphere, completely unlike the frigid reception for President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton four days earlier. Graham and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan talked for two-and-a-half hours and said they had reached agreement over Syria. Impacts The risk is growing of a dispute between the Syrian Kurds and the United States. Relations between Turkey and Russia are strained; Russia and the United States will combine to protect Manbij. Key northern Syrian routes through Idlib may be blocked and HTS will put up tough resistance if attacked.

Tehran will use internal threats to rally support

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
National Security ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Internal Stability ◽  
Ethnic Minority Groups ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Border Areas

Significance Recent clashes between security forces and ethnic minority groups living in border areas have highlighted the potential for increased domestic tensions, in an environment of regional escalation and pressure from Washington. In particular, a deadly September 22 terrorist attack on a military parade in the southwestern city of Ahvaz raised questions about Iran’s internal stability. Impacts Clashes could be used to justify a wider national-security crackdown against ethnic Arabs, other minorities and civil society. On balance the Ahvaz attack will boost the popularity and political influence of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). Perceived internal ethnic threats may increase popular support for Iran’s regional presence as a deterrence strategy.

China’s ‘new media’ create new markets and new risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New Media ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Live Streaming ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Growth ◽  
Short Video ◽  
The Government

Subject Live streaming and short video in China. Significance Live streaming and ‘short video’ apps have fast become mainstream in China. The international growth of Chinese-owned short-video app TikTok has generated fears in the United States that its data policies and censorship constitute a national security threat. Impacts China’s array of internet regulations make it easy for the government to find fault with a firm whose actions it disapproves of. Future laws in China will directly govern the use of the algorithms tech firms use to monitor and censor content. US politicians will be increasingly aware, and wary, of Chinese tech firms that collect data on US citizens.

Qatari litigation targets reputation, not resolution

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Test Cases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges

Subject Qatari legal disputes with Gulf rivals. Significance More than two years after a bloc of regional rivals began an economic and political boycott of Qatar, there are no signs of rapprochement on the horizon. In the meantime, Doha has launched a series of legal challenges against the boycotting countries at the WTO and elsewhere. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has responded with counterclaims against Qatar. Impacts The Gulf diplomatic crisis will likely only be resolved when the blockading countries find it expedient to bring it to a close. Saudi and UAE use of the national security exemption will offer further test cases for WTO dispute resolution. The United States may seek to intervene to encourage bilateral deals to prevent an unwelcome ruling on the national security exemption.

Tarnished Kenyan poll will prolong crisis

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type

Significance Kenyatta's determination to push on with the poll comes after one of the seven IEBC commissioners, Roselyn Akombe, admitted publicly on October 18 that the IEBC could not guarantee a credible presidential election and subsequently fled to the United States. Her public admission came a week after Raila Odinga, the main opposition National Super Alliance (NASA) candidate, withdrew from the poll for which Kenyatta is vigorously campaigning. Impacts Prolonged political uncertainty will confirm to neighbouring countries the risks of regional infrastructure routes going through Kenya. A new Jubilee government may take some measures to curb the independence of institutions such as the courts. Rising civil society pressure calling for postponement of the poll is unlikely to be listened to by the authorities.

Iran-US nuclear deal revival efforts will face hurdles

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Medical Supplies ◽  
President Elect ◽  
National Security Adviser

Significance US President-elect Joe Biden supports the agreement, from which his predecessor Donald Trump withdrew, and has named as his national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who under former President Barack Obama began the secret outreach that fostered the JCPOA. Impacts Biden will immediately lower the temperature by facilitating trade in medical supplies to fight COVID-19. An end to the ‘Muslim ban’ will likely mean Iranian citizens can again travel to the United States, pandemic permitting. Iran may halt or slow steps that violate JCPOA limits, such as the installation of advanced centrifuges.

Momentum will build in Vietnamese-US relations

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Guidance Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Legal Proceedings ◽  
Dam Building ◽  
Maritime Disputes

Significance Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was in Hanoi last month. In the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance document released by the White House in March, Vietnam was identified as one of Washington’s leading partners in the Indo-Pacific. Impacts Stronger Vietnamese-US relations may embolden Hanoi to initiate international legal proceedings over its maritime disputes with Beijing. Vietnam will urge the United States to do more to highlight the environmental impact of dam-building on the Mekong by upriver countries. Hanoi’s burgeoning ties with US adversary Moscow could have a negative impact on its relations with Washington.

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