Ankara hopes its Syrian invasion may now go ahead

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type

Subject Turkish objectives in Syria. Significance US Senator Lindsey Graham’s visit to Ankara on January 18 passed off in an exceptionally cordial atmosphere, completely unlike the frigid reception for President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton four days earlier. Graham and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan talked for two-and-a-half hours and said they had reached agreement over Syria. Impacts The risk is growing of a dispute between the Syrian Kurds and the United States. Relations between Turkey and Russia are strained; Russia and the United States will combine to protect Manbij. Key northern Syrian routes through Idlib may be blocked and HTS will put up tough resistance if attacked.

Crises and 'pivot' will boost US intelligence agencies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intelligence Community ◽  
National Security Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Public Scrutiny

Subject The US intelligence community in a year after purported reforms. Significance On December 29, an agreement between the United States, Japan and South Korea to share intelligence on North Korea went into effect. This ended a year in which the US intelligence community was the subject of broad domestic public scrutiny in the light of continued fallout from former National Security Agency (NSA) contractor Edward Snowden's leaks to a Senate report on the CIA's use of torture. The White House's support for reforms has been watched by tech and telecoms businesses that have lost considerable revenue from reputational damage as a result of the growing awareness of requirements on them of US intelligence activities. Impacts The Obama administration will rely on the US intelligence community as its main counterterrorist instrument. A Republican Congress will be less likely to support intelligence reforms, though only marginally so. There is no indication that the balance of power on intelligence issues between the executive and legislative branches has shifted.

China’s ‘new media’ create new markets and new risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New Media ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Live Streaming ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Growth ◽  
Short Video ◽  
The Government

Subject Live streaming and short video in China. Significance Live streaming and ‘short video’ apps have fast become mainstream in China. The international growth of Chinese-owned short-video app TikTok has generated fears in the United States that its data policies and censorship constitute a national security threat. Impacts China’s array of internet regulations make it easy for the government to find fault with a firm whose actions it disapproves of. Future laws in China will directly govern the use of the algorithms tech firms use to monitor and censor content. US politicians will be increasingly aware, and wary, of Chinese tech firms that collect data on US citizens.

Qatari litigation targets reputation, not resolution

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Test Cases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges

Subject Qatari legal disputes with Gulf rivals. Significance More than two years after a bloc of regional rivals began an economic and political boycott of Qatar, there are no signs of rapprochement on the horizon. In the meantime, Doha has launched a series of legal challenges against the boycotting countries at the WTO and elsewhere. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has responded with counterclaims against Qatar. Impacts The Gulf diplomatic crisis will likely only be resolved when the blockading countries find it expedient to bring it to a close. Saudi and UAE use of the national security exemption will offer further test cases for WTO dispute resolution. The United States may seek to intervene to encourage bilateral deals to prevent an unwelcome ruling on the national security exemption.

Iran-US nuclear deal revival efforts will face hurdles

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Medical Supplies ◽  
President Elect ◽  
National Security Adviser

Significance US President-elect Joe Biden supports the agreement, from which his predecessor Donald Trump withdrew, and has named as his national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who under former President Barack Obama began the secret outreach that fostered the JCPOA. Impacts Biden will immediately lower the temperature by facilitating trade in medical supplies to fight COVID-19. An end to the ‘Muslim ban’ will likely mean Iranian citizens can again travel to the United States, pandemic permitting. Iran may halt or slow steps that violate JCPOA limits, such as the installation of advanced centrifuges.

Momentum will build in Vietnamese-US relations

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Guidance Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Legal Proceedings ◽  
Dam Building ◽  
Maritime Disputes

Significance Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was in Hanoi last month. In the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance document released by the White House in March, Vietnam was identified as one of Washington’s leading partners in the Indo-Pacific. Impacts Stronger Vietnamese-US relations may embolden Hanoi to initiate international legal proceedings over its maritime disputes with Beijing. Vietnam will urge the United States to do more to highlight the environmental impact of dam-building on the Mekong by upriver countries. Hanoi’s burgeoning ties with US adversary Moscow could have a negative impact on its relations with Washington.

Next US president will confront nuclear disorder

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Presidential Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nuclear Policy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nuclear Response

Significance As Barack Obama eyes the January 2017 presidential transition, Washington's decades-long goal of a stable global nuclear order appears to be under threat from multiple quarters. Obama was mulling a US nuclear posture shift in August, whereby he would declare that the United States would only launch its nuclear deterrent in response to a nuclear strike by an adversary, ruling out a nuclear response to a conventional attack on US or allied forces. Impacts Deviation by Washington from support of disarmament and existing legal instruments could strain ties with some US allies. Trump's unorthodox positions on nuclear policy will promote defections by national security Republicans to Clinton's camp. A candidate's campaign trail rhetoric is likely to influence the credibility of the US nuclear deterrent once in office.

A pattern of arrests in Iran will intensify

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
National Security ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consensus Mean

Significance Since the major anti-government protests in January 2018, Tehran has engaged in a gradual but growing campaign of repression against civil society and economic actors, arresting activists and dual nationals on national security charges and businesspeople for corruption and currency manipulation. Increasing activism in outlying provinces has also resulted in an uptick in arrests among minority groups. Impacts Fears of a popular backlash and the lack of elite consensus mean a wholesale social crackdown is improbable. All sides will talk up a tough line on corruption amid popular anger over economic conditions. Tensions with the United States will not be resolved before elections in both countries take place.

Canada’s Trudeau will welcome Biden’s US win

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Wall Street ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Middle Power ◽  
The World ◽  
Keystone Xl

Significance Canada-US ties have seen some friction under President Donald Trump; Biden’s administration is an opportunity for calmer ties. The change of president in the United States will have implications for Canada’s economy, trade, environmental policy and national security, and could help bolster Canada as a global middle power. Impacts Bay Street (Canada’s Wall Street) will monitor Biden’s economic policy appointees closely. Trudeau’s government will lobby Biden to support the Keystone XL pipeline. Canada will support Washington on the world stage, including as Biden returns Washington to international bodies. Trudeau could call an early election in 2021, though cancellation of Keystone XL would limit his support in Alberta.

WikiLeaks disclosures will intensify US anti-leak push

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Privacy Concerns ◽  
Technology Firms ◽  
Internet Regulation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance Microsoft said WikiLeaks had been in contact with them about vulnerabilities disclosed when WikiLeaks published files on March 7, the first in a series called ‘Vault 7’. This leak has been rebuked by US national security officials, but further revelations could be forthcoming. Impacts Customers may be reluctant to buy products that have previously been associated with CIA spy tools and listening devices. The revelations will damage an already strained relationship between the US government and technology firms. Privacy concerns will hinder internet regulation liberalisation between the United States and other countries, particularly in the EU.

Security bill will boost Canada’s cyber capabilities

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Law Enforcement ◽  
National Security ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Privacy Concerns ◽  
Conservative Government ◽  
Intelligence Service

Subject Bill C-59 and Canadian national security legislation. Significance Canada’s governing Liberals have introduced Bill C-59, omnibus national security legislation that promises to be the most significant overhaul of the national security and intelligence architecture since the creation of the Canadian Security and Intelligence Service (CSIS) in 1984. The proposed legislation follows through on a campaign promise by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to remove unpopular elements from Bill C-51, a legacy of the Conservative government of former Prime Minister Stephen Harper that drew criticism on rights grounds for sweeping powers granted to law enforcement and intelligence to assiste counterterrorism efforts. Impacts Privacy concerns will be a persistent obstacle to Ottawa increasing cyber cooperation with the United States. The bureaucratic overhaul is likely to improve the efficacy of surveillance operations and intelligence analysis. China following through on its recent pledge not to hack Canadian commercial secrets probably depends on bilateral ties warming.

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