Momentum will build in Vietnamese-US relations

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Guidance Document ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Legal Proceedings ◽  
Dam Building ◽  
Maritime Disputes

Significance Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was in Hanoi last month. In the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance document released by the White House in March, Vietnam was identified as one of Washington’s leading partners in the Indo-Pacific. Impacts Stronger Vietnamese-US relations may embolden Hanoi to initiate international legal proceedings over its maritime disputes with Beijing. Vietnam will urge the United States to do more to highlight the environmental impact of dam-building on the Mekong by upriver countries. Hanoi’s burgeoning ties with US adversary Moscow could have a negative impact on its relations with Washington.

Misusing historical analogies limits US policy options

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Options ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Decision To Leave ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Future

Significance The Vietnam analogy implies that President Joe Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan will have deeply negative consequences for the United States. However, Afghanistan is not Vietnam and the Biden withdrawal needs to be considered within the wider context of his administration’s review of US commitments abroad. Impacts The White House will be pressured to clarify the future of other US military commitments, particularly in Iraq. Biden will seek to reassure allies, particularly those in NATO, that his commitment to multilateralism will not diminish. Biden may seek an opportunity for a military show of force, possibly in the Middle East, to refute accusations of weakness.

Crises and 'pivot' will boost US intelligence agencies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intelligence Community ◽  
National Security Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Public Scrutiny

Subject The US intelligence community in a year after purported reforms. Significance On December 29, an agreement between the United States, Japan and South Korea to share intelligence on North Korea went into effect. This ended a year in which the US intelligence community was the subject of broad domestic public scrutiny in the light of continued fallout from former National Security Agency (NSA) contractor Edward Snowden's leaks to a Senate report on the CIA's use of torture. The White House's support for reforms has been watched by tech and telecoms businesses that have lost considerable revenue from reputational damage as a result of the growing awareness of requirements on them of US intelligence activities. Impacts The Obama administration will rely on the US intelligence community as its main counterterrorist instrument. A Republican Congress will be less likely to support intelligence reforms, though only marginally so. There is no indication that the balance of power on intelligence issues between the executive and legislative branches has shifted.

AIIB shows increased US-China institutional rivalry

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Regional Institutions ◽  
Institutional Competition

Significance London's actions drew a harsh, if unofficial, reaction from the White House. It underscores the growing rivalry between the United States and China over the changing architecture of global and regional institutions. Impacts Institutional competition will not spill over much into the security field, where China's neighbours seek to balance it. Increased European involvement in South-east Asia will accelerate movement towards an EU-ASEAN free trade agreement. Increased international prestige could help Chinese President Xi Jinping's domestic clout.

US TPP implementation faces major hurdles in Congress

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Key Industry

Significance The Obama administration faces an uphill fight in Congress to secure enough votes for TPP ratification, given Democratic suspicions of free trade agreements, Republican animus for the White House and the frustrations of key industry groups in the United States. The United States can in effect veto the TPP's international implementation, while the White House's 'Asia pivot' policy relies partly on firmer trade ties with East and South-east Asia. Impacts The battle over TPP will likely divert political capital and US government resources from the TTIP negotiations. China may benefit diplomatically in the Asia-Pacific if the United States blocks TPP from coming into force. The trade debate may spill over to greater US legislative attention on currency manipulation issues ahead of 2017.

Ankara hopes its Syrian invasion may now go ahead

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type

Subject Turkish objectives in Syria. Significance US Senator Lindsey Graham’s visit to Ankara on January 18 passed off in an exceptionally cordial atmosphere, completely unlike the frigid reception for President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton four days earlier. Graham and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan talked for two-and-a-half hours and said they had reached agreement over Syria. Impacts The risk is growing of a dispute between the Syrian Kurds and the United States. Relations between Turkey and Russia are strained; Russia and the United States will combine to protect Manbij. Key northern Syrian routes through Idlib may be blocked and HTS will put up tough resistance if attacked.

Erdogan will not alter US ties to Kurds

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Training And Support

Subject The Erdogan-Trump meeting on May 16. Significance Turkey yesterday blamed US officials for "security lapses" during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Washington last week, which turned into a media disaster when the Turkish president’s guards beat up demonstrators in front of the TV cameras, with Erdogan looking on. The visit to meet President Donald Trump failed to produce any breakthrough on the issues dividing them, despite a friendly meeting at the White House. Although Trump is outwardly much more sympathetic to Erdogan than his predecessor was, the two countries are still far apart on Syria, where the United States remains the protector and ally of the Syrian Kurds. Impacts Turkey will continue to fortify the strip of land it occupies in northern Syria. It will step up training and support for the Sunni Arab rebel Free Syrian Army. Erdogan will respond to his increased international isolation by further clampdowns on remaining critics in Turkey.

China’s ‘new media’ create new markets and new risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New Media ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Live Streaming ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Growth ◽  
Short Video ◽  
The Government

Subject Live streaming and short video in China. Significance Live streaming and ‘short video’ apps have fast become mainstream in China. The international growth of Chinese-owned short-video app TikTok has generated fears in the United States that its data policies and censorship constitute a national security threat. Impacts China’s array of internet regulations make it easy for the government to find fault with a firm whose actions it disapproves of. Future laws in China will directly govern the use of the algorithms tech firms use to monitor and censor content. US politicians will be increasingly aware, and wary, of Chinese tech firms that collect data on US citizens.

Qatari litigation targets reputation, not resolution

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Test Cases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges

Subject Qatari legal disputes with Gulf rivals. Significance More than two years after a bloc of regional rivals began an economic and political boycott of Qatar, there are no signs of rapprochement on the horizon. In the meantime, Doha has launched a series of legal challenges against the boycotting countries at the WTO and elsewhere. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has responded with counterclaims against Qatar. Impacts The Gulf diplomatic crisis will likely only be resolved when the blockading countries find it expedient to bring it to a close. Saudi and UAE use of the national security exemption will offer further test cases for WTO dispute resolution. The United States may seek to intervene to encourage bilateral deals to prevent an unwelcome ruling on the national security exemption.

US midstream energy may see consolidation

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Environmental Policy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Processing Plants ◽  
Exploration And Production ◽  
Keystone Xl

Significance The shale revolution in the United States created an explosion in upstream exploration and production (E&P) activity, as well as unprecedented demand for infrastructure to connect newfound resources with refineries and processing plants. Even a brief pause in shale revenue and drilling could imperil investment in this midstream sector. Impacts Keystone XL may be traded by the White House for environmental policy from Congress. The decline in oil prices will hit the Texan economy, as well as the presidential hopes of former Governor Rick Perry. Although oil exports may not be permitted, swaps with Mexico will ease oversupply of light crude.

US F-16 sale will strengthen Taiwan's China-sceptics

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Trade Negotiations ◽  
Fighter Aircraft ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Us ◽  
Total Price ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject The US decision to sell advanced F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan. Significance The Trump administration has authorised the sale to Taiwan of 66 advanced F-16 fighter jets, the most coveted item among Taipei's wish-list of arms purchases from the United States. Taiwan has sought the purchase of advanced fighter aircraft for years, but the White House under both George W Bush and Barack Obama agreed only to upgrades for Taiwan's existing F-16 fleet. The total price is estimated to reach about 8 billion dollars. Impacts The arms sale will provide a boost in confidence for Taiwan, which has been falling behind China in defence capabilities. US-Taiwan cooperation will increase, despite Washington not formally recognising Taiwan as a sovereign nation. Taipei will seek dialogue with Beijing, but will be rebuffed at least until after the 2020 elections. Any sanctions China imposes because of the arms sale will probably be folded into future trade negotiations with Washington.

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