Erdogan will not alter US ties to Kurds

Subject The Erdogan-Trump meeting on May 16. Significance Turkey yesterday blamed US officials for "security lapses" during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Washington last week, which turned into a media disaster when the Turkish president’s guards beat up demonstrators in front of the TV cameras, with Erdogan looking on. The visit to meet President Donald Trump failed to produce any breakthrough on the issues dividing them, despite a friendly meeting at the White House. Although Trump is outwardly much more sympathetic to Erdogan than his predecessor was, the two countries are still far apart on Syria, where the United States remains the protector and ally of the Syrian Kurds. Impacts Turkey will continue to fortify the strip of land it occupies in northern Syria. It will step up training and support for the Sunni Arab rebel Free Syrian Army. Erdogan will respond to his increased international isolation by further clampdowns on remaining critics in Turkey.

2020 ◽  
pp. 216747952095077
Author(s):  
Evan L. Frederick ◽  
Ann Pegoraro ◽  
Samuel Schmidt

When asked if she would go to the White House if invited, Megan Rapinoe stated, “I’m not going to the fucking White House.” The next morning, President Donald Trump posted a series of tweets in which he criticized Rapinoe’s statements. In his tweets, Trump introduced issues around race in the United States and brought forth his own notion of nationalism. The purpose of this study was to conduct an analysis of users’ tweets to determine how individuals employed Twitter to craft a narrative and discuss the ongoing Rapinoe and Trump feud within and outside the bounds of Critical Race Theory (CRT) and nationalism. An inductive analysis of 16,137 users’ tweets revealed three primary themes: a) Refuse, Refute, & Redirect Racist Rhetoric b) Stand Up vs. Know your Rights, and c) #ShutUpAndBeALeader. Based on the findings of this study, it appears that the dialogue regarding racism in the United States is quickly evolving. Instead of reciting the same refrain (i.e., racism no longer exists and systematic racism is constructed by Black people) seen in previous works, individuals in the current dataset refuted those talking points and clearly labeled the President as a racist. Additionally, though discussions of nationalism were evident in this dataset, the Stand Up vs. Know Your Rights theme was on the periphery in comparison to discussions of race. Perhaps, this indicates that some have grown tired of Trump utilizing nationalism as a means to stoke racism.


Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.


Significance The Vietnam analogy implies that President Joe Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan will have deeply negative consequences for the United States. However, Afghanistan is not Vietnam and the Biden withdrawal needs to be considered within the wider context of his administration’s review of US commitments abroad. Impacts The White House will be pressured to clarify the future of other US military commitments, particularly in Iraq. Biden will seek to reassure allies, particularly those in NATO, that his commitment to multilateralism will not diminish. Biden may seek an opportunity for a military show of force, possibly in the Middle East, to refute accusations of weakness.


2021 ◽  
Vol VI (III) ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
Muhammad Nadeem Mirza ◽  
Lubna Abid Ali ◽  
Irfan Hasnain Qaisrani

This study intends to explore the rise of Donald Trump to the White House. Why was Donald Trump considered a populist leader, and how did his populist rhetoric and actions impact the contours of American domestic and foreign policies? The study adopted qualitative exploratory and explanatory research techniques. Specific methods utilised to conduct the study remained political personality profiling. It finds that the populist leaders construct the binaries in the society by dividing the nation into two groups: �us� the people, against �them� the corrupt elite or other groups presented as a threat to the lives and livelihood of the nation. Though populism as a unique brand of politics remained active through most of the US history, yet these were only two occasions that populists were successful in winning the American presidential elections � Andrew Jackson in 1828 and Donald Trump in 2016. Structural and historical reasons became the biggest cause behind the election of Donald Trump, who successfully brought a revolution in American domestic and foreign policies. And if structural issues in the United States are not addressed, there is a clear chance that Trump � who is not withering away � will come back to contest and challenge any competitors in the 2024 presidential elections.


2017 ◽  
Vol 111 (4) ◽  
pp. 1027-1035

In June 2017, President Donald Trump announced a plan to roll back various steps taken by his predecessor toward normalizing relations between the United States and Cuba. A senior official for the administration announced the plan in a White House press briefing:The President vowed to reverse the Obama administration policies toward Cuba that have enriched the Cuban military regime and increased the repression on the island. It is a promise that President Trump made, and it's a promise that President Trump is keeping.With this is a readjustment of the United States policy towards Cuba. And you will see that, going forward, the new policy under the Trump administration, will empower the Cuban people. To reiterate, the new policy going forward does not target the Cuban people, but it does target the repressive members of the Cuban military government.


Significance London's actions drew a harsh, if unofficial, reaction from the White House. It underscores the growing rivalry between the United States and China over the changing architecture of global and regional institutions. Impacts Institutional competition will not spill over much into the security field, where China's neighbours seek to balance it. Increased European involvement in South-east Asia will accelerate movement towards an EU-ASEAN free trade agreement. Increased international prestige could help Chinese President Xi Jinping's domestic clout.


Subject Russia's new foreign policy document. Significance A new foreign policy concept presents Russia as a nation facing a range of security threats but nevertheless willing to play a global role in a multipolar, chaotic and unpredictable world. Replacing the 2013 foreign policy concept, the document also attempts to assuage fears of Russian expansionist intent. Impacts Assumptions about the United States may change rapidly under President Donald Trump. Moscow will strengthen its foothold in Syria as a bargaining chip with the West and to show its resolve not to back down under pressure. Russia will refuse to relax control over Ukraine's eastern regions. Asian policy will consist partly of courting China and partly of seeking alliances to counterbalance this. Economic cooperation with Japan will be constrained by lack of a near-term deal on territorial issues.


Significance The Obama administration faces an uphill fight in Congress to secure enough votes for TPP ratification, given Democratic suspicions of free trade agreements, Republican animus for the White House and the frustrations of key industry groups in the United States. The United States can in effect veto the TPP's international implementation, while the White House's 'Asia pivot' policy relies partly on firmer trade ties with East and South-east Asia. Impacts The battle over TPP will likely divert political capital and US government resources from the TTIP negotiations. China may benefit diplomatically in the Asia-Pacific if the United States blocks TPP from coming into force. The trade debate may spill over to greater US legislative attention on currency manipulation issues ahead of 2017.


Subject The Pentagon's recent Missile Defense Review. Significance President Donald Trump this month unveiled the first major review of US missile defence policy since 2010. Trump and his vice president have become staunch missile defence advocates, championing expansion in conjunction and coordination with efforts to create a Space Force. The ambitious effort outlined in the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Review this month would take the current, regionally focused missile defence programme and expand it so that it can, according to Trump, protect US nationals from missile attack, "anywhere, anytime, anyplace". Impacts US advances in defensive capabilities will trigger technological escalation as China and Russia move to improve offensive capabilities. Washington likely cannot afford to keep pace with potential adversaries' offensive capabilities because defensive capabilities cost more. If the United States overtly ‘weaponises’ space, other countries will follow. The demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty will bring a whole class of destabilising missiles back into the equation.


Subject China's options for retaliating against US firms during trade tensions. Significance US President Donald Trump tweeted yesterday that he is working with China's President Xi Jinping to get China's telecoms giant, ZTE, "back in business, fast" -- even though it was penal US sanctions that forced the company to announce last week that it was stopping operations. The Trump administration is divided on whether its objective in threatening imports tariffs on Chinese goods worth 50 billion dollars, effective May 22, is to strike a deal to cut China's trade surplus with the United States or to change China's industrial practices. Impacts Compliance costs will rise even if trade tensions subside. Investors in industries that China sees as strategic (eg, semiconductors and integrated circuits) may face unwritten screening rules. Investors in automobile, aircraft and shipping manufacturing and finance may find new opportunities to enter the market.


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