2020 Democratic candidates will shift US fiscal agenda

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
Policy Ideas ◽  
Democratic Presidential Candidate

Subject The emerging Democratic presidential candidate field and economic policy ideas before 2020. Significance With the new Congress seated and 2019 underway, more Democrats are coming forward as candidates for the party’s presidential nomination in 2020. Democrats sense that Republican President Donald Trump is electorally vulnerable, so the already large candidate field is likely to grow further. Democrats are also targeting Senate wins, hoping to control the executive and legislative branches after 2020, building on winning the House of Representatives in 2018. Impacts The 2020 Senate races map gives Democrats a better chance of winning a majority than in 2018. House Democrats face internal schisms: some progressives aim to unseat representatives seen as too moderate. If Republicans hold the Senate or White House after 2020, they will frustrate Democratic priorities. Republicans will use 2019-20 to try to win over female, suburban and ethnic minority voters, but face difficulty.

US midterm elections pose challenges for Democrats

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Illegal Immigrants ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
The Past ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Democrats And Republicans

Significance At present, Republicans need to gain only five seats to take control of the House of Representatives and just one to control the Senate. Awareness that the party holding the White House usually loses seats in midterm elections is driving tactics among both Democrats and Republicans. Impacts Republicans are likely to rely on law and order issues that have proved politically successful for them in the past. Republicans will link Democratic 'softness' on illegal immigrants to rising crime and Biden’s approach to Mexican border security. Securing a Republican Congress may well lead Donald Trump to commit to running for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination.

Prospects for US politics in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House

Subject Prospects for US politics in 2020. Significance US politics next year will be dominated by campaigning for the November 3 presidential election as well as ballots for the Senate and House of Representatives, and then by responses to the outcomes. The Republicans want to retain control of the White House, and current President Donald Trump will also want them to retain the Senate given the likelihood of impeachment by the Democratic-led House of Representatives. The Democrats want at the very least to keep control of the House.

‘Imperial’ US executive will provoke Congress

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Military Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Imperial Presidency ◽  
Closed Door

Subject US presidential powers. Significance On June 19, Hope Hicks, a former Trump 2016 campaign aide and former White House communications director, answered questions about her time on the campaign in a closed-door Congress session, but did not answer questions about her West Wing service. This followed arguments from the White House that her communications with President Donald Trump and activities in the West Wing were covered by ‘constitutional immunity’ and that taking House of Representatives questions could undermine the ‘prerogatives’ of the presidency. The case touches on the powers of the presidency and the 'unitary executive' theory, which affects how the president governs. Impacts The administration will resist future congressional attempts to get former and current White House officials to testify. Congress will try to push back against an overmighty executive but would need to overturn presidential vetoes. Areas where Congress will seek greater powers include trade and foreign and military policy. If Congress feels its oversight powers are diminished by an ‘imperial presidency’, pressure to impeach Trump will grow.

US president’s clemency powers could see party fight

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Immigration Control ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
Cover Up

Significance The APPA would place scrutiny mechanisms around the president’s pardon power. The bills have been introduced because their sponsors fear President Donald Trump and his White House -- which directly or indirectly face investigations relating to whether his presidential campaign colluded with Russia -- have something to ‘cover up’ and are readying to use the pardon powers to ‘silence’ witnesses and ‘protect’ people. Yet the president and White House deny any wrongdoing -- and thus any need or any plans to wield the pardon power in this way. Impacts States may amend their laws to give their judiciaries more prosecutorial powers over federal pardon recipients. Congress might lack the votes to overturn a presidential veto of any pardon-related law. Trump will likely use his clemency powers to support his policy goals, such as immigration control. Greater sensitivity over clemency could hinder the president from legitimately exercising his clemency powers.

US diplomatic service will be downsized and degraded

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
The State ◽  
Direct Influence ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cutting Out ◽  
Foreign Policy Crises

Subject The State Department. Significance The US State Department’s third-ranking official and most senior career diplomat, Tom Shannon, announced his departure on February 1. While the 60-year old Shannon said he was stepping down for personal reasons, he is only the latest in a stream of senior career diplomats who have left since Donald Trump became president a year ago and appointed Rex Tillerson as secretary of state with a mandate to downsize the department. Impacts Minimising the benefits of diplomacy in favour of military action could exacerbate foreign policy crises and conflicts. White House heel-dragging on filling posts both 'streamlines' State and avoids congressional confirmation scrutiny of political nominees. Concerned that State wields little influence with the White House, Congress will be more assertive in the foreign policy process. Other powers -- particularly US allies -- will seek and have increased direct influence on the White House, cutting out State.

US reports of Afghan withdrawal feed uncertainty

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House

Significance Khalilzad's determined shuttle diplomacy has been thrown into doubt by reports that President Donald Trump wants to halve the 14,000-strong US contingent in Afghanistan. A troop drawdown in Afghanistan would reverse the policy set out in a 2017 strategy for robust engagement influenced by Defense Secretary James Mattis, who announced his resignation on December 20 and left office on December 31. Impacts Erratic White House policy-making will undermine Washington's credibility as a long-term Afghan ally and mentor. Other countries contributing troops to NATO's Afghan mission may reduce their contingents accordingly. Russia will ramp up its own diplomatic effort, although it too is seen as partisan in the Afghan conflict.

Erdogan will not alter US ties to Kurds

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Training And Support

Subject The Erdogan-Trump meeting on May 16. Significance Turkey yesterday blamed US officials for "security lapses" during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Washington last week, which turned into a media disaster when the Turkish president’s guards beat up demonstrators in front of the TV cameras, with Erdogan looking on. The visit to meet President Donald Trump failed to produce any breakthrough on the issues dividing them, despite a friendly meeting at the White House. Although Trump is outwardly much more sympathetic to Erdogan than his predecessor was, the two countries are still far apart on Syria, where the United States remains the protector and ally of the Syrian Kurds. Impacts Turkey will continue to fortify the strip of land it occupies in northern Syria. It will step up training and support for the Sunni Arab rebel Free Syrian Army. Erdogan will respond to his increased international isolation by further clampdowns on remaining critics in Turkey.

US intelligence director search will become harder

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Court Cases ◽  
Inspector General ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Foreign Governments ◽  
Legal Battle

Significance The first whistleblower, also anonymous, is reportedly an IC member, too. Both complaints are being handled by IC Inspector General Michael Atkinson, who testified to the House of Representatives intelligence committee on October 4, and acting Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Joseph Maguire, who testified on September 26. Impacts A protracted legal battle with House Democrats over White House records of presidential communications looks likely. If the whistleblower controversy runs for much longer, it will influence the Senate’s deliberations on the DNI nominee. Foreign governments could be less willing to offer to support legitimate overseas US investigations. Further court cases concerning the extent and applicability of executive privilege are coming. Intelligence management and policy will almost certainly be an election issue in 2020.

US Supreme Court-packing unlikely

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Constitutional Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Us Supreme Court ◽  
Lower Courts ◽  
Conservative Bias

Significance Rubio's move comes as several candidates for the Democratic Party's 2020 presidential nomination are discussing 'packing' the Supreme Court -- adding justices intended to nullify the perceived long-term conservative bias of the Court following Trump-era appointments. Impacts A constitutional change to limit the Supreme Court to nine justices is unlikely: amendments are purposely hard. Court-packing would not guarantee 'Democratic' or 'Republican' rulings: much depends on the case and how justices feel. Packing the courts would likely increase their politicisation, and potentially slow their deliberative capacity. If Trump wins a second term and Republicans keep the Senate, they will appoint further conservative justices. If the Democrats win the White House and Senate in 2020, they might 'pack' the lower courts.

Trump wins as US Democrats wait in Iowa

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
Democratic Candidate

Significance Iowa’s caucuses are the first contests in the race to win a party’s presidential nomination; in 2020, incumbent President Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee, so the Iowa caucuses on this occasion matter more for the Democrats. The last four Democratic presidential nominees won in Iowa, and no eventual nominee has finished lower than fourth there. However, this year’s campaign may be different, as the share of the vote gained by the leading candidates was likely low and clustered. Impacts Super Tuesday, when 14 states hold primaries, will winnow the Democratic candidate field further. There will be calls for Iowa to change its caucus system partly or fully by January 2024. President Donald Trump’s strong victory in Iowa’s Republican caucuses will further strengthen his capture of the party.

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