US intelligence director search will become harder

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Court Cases ◽  
Inspector General ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Foreign Governments ◽  
Legal Battle

Significance The first whistleblower, also anonymous, is reportedly an IC member, too. Both complaints are being handled by IC Inspector General Michael Atkinson, who testified to the House of Representatives intelligence committee on October 4, and acting Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Joseph Maguire, who testified on September 26. Impacts A protracted legal battle with House Democrats over White House records of presidential communications looks likely. If the whistleblower controversy runs for much longer, it will influence the Senate’s deliberations on the DNI nominee. Foreign governments could be less willing to offer to support legitimate overseas US investigations. Further court cases concerning the extent and applicability of executive privilege are coming. Intelligence management and policy will almost certainly be an election issue in 2020.

Congress will update US military force authorisation

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
Military Force ◽  
National Defense ◽  
Legal Basis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
Speaker Of The House

Subject The debate on new rules authorising the use of military force. Significance When senators return from the summer recess, they will have to consider the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) passed by the House of Representatives on July 14. This NDAA, the annual spending plan for the US military, drew controversy because of a bipartisan amendment that would have repealed the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF), the legal basis for military action in the US global counterterrorism campaign. The amendment was blocked by the speaker of the House, Paul Ryan. Impacts Erratic White House policymaking will spark congressional initiatives to reassert the legislature’s authority. Congressional oversight of the armed drone programme will defer to the executive branch. Trump’s North Korea threats are generating additional scrutiny of the president’s absolute authority to order a nuclear attack.

Prospects for US politics in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House

Subject Prospects for US politics in 2020. Significance US politics next year will be dominated by campaigning for the November 3 presidential election as well as ballots for the Senate and House of Representatives, and then by responses to the outcomes. The Republicans want to retain control of the White House, and current President Donald Trump will also want them to retain the Senate given the likelihood of impeachment by the Democratic-led House of Representatives. The Democrats want at the very least to keep control of the House.

US midterm elections pose challenges for Democrats

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Illegal Immigrants ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
The Past ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Democrats And Republicans

Significance At present, Republicans need to gain only five seats to take control of the House of Representatives and just one to control the Senate. Awareness that the party holding the White House usually loses seats in midterm elections is driving tactics among both Democrats and Republicans. Impacts Republicans are likely to rely on law and order issues that have proved politically successful for them in the past. Republicans will link Democratic 'softness' on illegal immigrants to rising crime and Biden’s approach to Mexican border security. Securing a Republican Congress may well lead Donald Trump to commit to running for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination.

US House Democrats eye ambitious agenda from January

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Leadership Positions ◽  
Majority Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Party Leaders

Subject Outlook for the Democrats' policy plans in the House of Representatives from January 2019. Significance In January, the Democrats become the House of Representatives majority. Party leaders are drafting their legislative programme but need to balance the ambitions of the party's left-wing activist base, which made gains in the November 6 midterms, with the party's desire to strengthen its congressional position and win the White House in 2020. The party also faces pressure from progressives for leadership positions, with some incoming representatives pledging to vote against Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's return as House speaker. Impacts A push to impeach Trump is unlikely, despite calls from the Democratic base, as it could look too politically motivated. Senate Republicans will appoint further tranches of conservative judges (and would bar any Trump impeachment). Democrats will conduct expansive investigations into the Trump team, assessing whether foreign agents influenced US policy.

‘Imperial’ US executive will provoke Congress

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Military Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Imperial Presidency ◽  
Closed Door

Subject US presidential powers. Significance On June 19, Hope Hicks, a former Trump 2016 campaign aide and former White House communications director, answered questions about her time on the campaign in a closed-door Congress session, but did not answer questions about her West Wing service. This followed arguments from the White House that her communications with President Donald Trump and activities in the West Wing were covered by ‘constitutional immunity’ and that taking House of Representatives questions could undermine the ‘prerogatives’ of the presidency. The case touches on the powers of the presidency and the 'unitary executive' theory, which affects how the president governs. Impacts The administration will resist future congressional attempts to get former and current White House officials to testify. Congress will try to push back against an overmighty executive but would need to overturn presidential vetoes. Areas where Congress will seek greater powers include trade and foreign and military policy. If Congress feels its oversight powers are diminished by an ‘imperial presidency’, pressure to impeach Trump will grow.

2020 Democratic candidates will shift US fiscal agenda

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
Policy Ideas ◽  
Democratic Presidential Candidate

Subject The emerging Democratic presidential candidate field and economic policy ideas before 2020. Significance With the new Congress seated and 2019 underway, more Democrats are coming forward as candidates for the party’s presidential nomination in 2020. Democrats sense that Republican President Donald Trump is electorally vulnerable, so the already large candidate field is likely to grow further. Democrats are also targeting Senate wins, hoping to control the executive and legislative branches after 2020, building on winning the House of Representatives in 2018. Impacts The 2020 Senate races map gives Democrats a better chance of winning a majority than in 2018. House Democrats face internal schisms: some progressives aim to unseat representatives seen as too moderate. If Republicans hold the Senate or White House after 2020, they will frustrate Democratic priorities. Republicans will use 2019-20 to try to win over female, suburban and ethnic minority voters, but face difficulty.

Legal pressures surrounding US president could rise

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
Legal Cases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Judicial Appointments ◽  
Witch Hunt

Significance This follows Trump taking to social media on April 21 to say that the investigations into his lawyer, Michael Cohen, were a “Witch Hunt”, a phrase he also often uses to describe Mueller’s Russia probe. Trump and his White House face various legal cases at present which risk becoming expansive and undermining the running of the executive branch. Some of the controversies affect Trump personally, others as president. Both could prove an unwelcome synergy for the country: what affects Trump affects the presidency. Impacts The scope and complexity of the probes facing Trump’s administration are sufficient to avoid denting Trump’s core voter base. Trump’s conservative judicial appointments could conceivably be sympathetic to the administration if cases go to court. If Democrats win the House of Representatives, Trump’s administration would likely face more conduct-related probes.

US weapons to Ukraine would turn Donbas into proxy war

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
The Us ◽  
Proxy War ◽  
John Boehner ◽  
Intelligence Support

Significance However, fears continue that the separatist withdrawal is an opportunity for them to reorganise their forces in preparation for an assault on Mariupol. Poroshenko said that since the Minsk 2.0 ceasefire came into effect 64 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. On March 5, Speaker of the US House of Representatives John Boehner sent a letter to President Barack Obama, urging the president to send lethal defensive weaponry to help Ukraine's military. Boehner reminded Obama that he had been given the powers to aid Kyiv through the Ukraine Freedom Support Act but so far Obama has not provided lethal defensive military aid. Impacts US will struggle to stop lethal military aid reaching Ukrainian volunteer battalions, some of them accused of human rights abuses. Western aid will likely remain non-lethal (radar and intelligence support) rather than lethal weaponry. White House-Congress relations are dire and Obama will be unmoved by congressional pressure.

Horowitz US poll probe implies new judicial risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Justice Department ◽  
Inspector General ◽  
Obama Administration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House

Significance The meeting is part of an agreement reached at the White House on May 21. That followed President Donald Trump's May 20 call for a probe into whether the FBI or justice department infiltrated his 2016 presidential campaign at the behest of the former Obama administration (2009-17). The same day, independent Inspector General Michael Horowitz was ordered by the justice department to expand his investigations to determine whether there was any impropriety in FBI investigations of Trump’s campaign. Impacts Trump will continue his tactic of undermining the credibility of the investigations, and belittle their participants. Congress may introduce bills to limit the president’s influence over the justice department. If Mueller, Rosenstein, Sessions or others were sacked, this would not necessarily stop investigations facing the White House. Concerns over FBI or justice department partisanship, and independence, will likely be election issues in November.

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