US 'open' Fed aim could suffer under Trump

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Tools ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Research Conference ◽  
Policy Strategy ◽  
Communication Practices ◽  
One Year

Significance The scheme is part of a year-long review of Fed monetary policy strategy and tools, and communication practices, with a research conference canvassing views about Fed policy tools and responsiveness to citizens’ views coming in early June. Impacts Herman Cain, Trump or both could decide to discontinue Cain’s Fed board nomination. Stephen Moore’s chances of nomination to the Fed board seem stronger; he will probably be confirmed. If Trump is re-elected, he could decide not to nominate the current Fed chair again in 2022. The Fed’s one-year review could see it augment the range of economic metrics it uses.

Renzi may shift EU macroeconomic narrative

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Member State ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
State Governments ◽  
European Policy ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Strategy ◽  
The Government

Subject Renzi's bid for more growth-friendly policies. Significance In its paper, 'A shared European policy strategy for growth, jobs, and stability', the Ministry of the Economy and Finance (MEF) sketches a plan to create more flexibility in EU macroeconomic policy coordination. The immediate goal is to enable member-state governments to use more fiscal stimulus and public investment to boost growth. Impacts If Renzi's constitutional reforms do not go through in October, the government will be in disarray. The ECB is likely to ease policy further tomorrow, while reminding markets that monetary policy accommodation is insufficient on its own. The March 17 European Council summit will be Renzi's chance to reframe the macroeconomic conversation.

scholarly journals South Africa’s economic response to monetary policy uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Central Bankers

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a sign restricted SVAR with an endogenous feedback of stochastic volatility to evaluate the sign and size of uncertainty shocks. The authors use a nonlinear DSGE model to gain deeper insights about the transmission mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty. Findings The authors show that monetary policy volatility is high and constant. Both inflation and interest rates decline in response to uncertainty. Output rebounds quickly after a contemporaneous decrease. The DSGE model shows that the size of the uncertainty shock matters – high uncertainty can lead to a severe contraction in output, inflation and interest rates. Research limitations/implications The authors model only a few variables in the SVAR – thus missing perhaps other possible channels of shock transmission. Practical implications There is a lesson for monetary policy: monetary policy uncertainty, in isolation from general macroeconomic uncertainty, often creates unintended adverse consequences and can perpetuate a weak economic environment. The tasks of central bankers are incredibly difficult. Their models project output and inflation with relatively large uncertainty based on many shocks emanating from various sources. It matters how central bankers react to these expectations and how they communicate the underlying risks associated with setting interest rates. Originality/value This is the first study that looks into monetary policy uncertainty into South Africa using a stochastic volatility model and a nonlinear DSGE model. The results should be very useful for the Central Bank as it highlights how uncertainty, that they create, can have adverse economic consequences.

Changes in commitment to change among leaders in home help services

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 216-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristina Westerberg ◽  
Susanne Tafvelin
Keyword(s):  
Organizational Change ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Change Initiatives ◽  
Commitment To Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Team Meetings ◽  
Home Help ◽  
Home Help Services ◽  
One Year ◽  
Over Time

Purpose – The purpose of the this study was to explore the development of commitment to change among leaders in the home help services during organizational change and to study this development in relation to workload and stress. During organizational change initiatives, commitment to change among leaders is important to ensure the implementation of the change. However, little is known of development of commitment of change over time. Design/methodology/approach – The study used a qualitative design with semi-structured interviews with ten leaders by the time an organizational change initiative was launched and follow-up one year later. Thematic content analysis was used to analyze the interviews. Findings – Commitment to change is not static, but seems to develop over time and during organizational change. At the first interview, leaders had a varied pattern reflecting different dimensions of commitment to change. One year later, the differences between leaders’ commitment to change was less obvious. Differences in commitment to change had no apparent relationship with workload or stress. Research limitations/implications – The data were collected from one organization, and the number of participants were small which could affect the results on workload and stress in relation to commitment to change. Practical implications – It is important to support leaders during organizational change initiatives to maintain their commitment. One way to accomplish this is to use management team meetings to monitor how leaders perceive their situation. Originality/value – Qualitative, longitudinal and leader studies on commitment to change are all unusual, and taken together, this study shows new aspects of commitment.

Assessing emphasis gaps among MBA alumni: a model framework

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-51
Author(s):  
Stuart Van Auken ◽  
Earl Chrysler ◽  
Ludmilla Gricenko Wells
Keyword(s):  
Methodological Approach ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Dimensional Structure ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Mba Programs ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Program Delivery ◽  
Mba Program ◽  
One Year

Purpose This paper aims to focus on Master of Business Administration (MBA) alumni and their ability to provide institution-specific insights into MBA program delivery. Given desired MBA positioning dimensions, a case exemplar is used to reveal gaps between “should have” program emphases and “actual” emphases. Departures from expectations are used to reveal either under- or over-emphases which require repair. Design/methodology/approach The study develops a gap assessment procedure and the theory of gaps, and it presents insights into the prioritization of gaps for closing through the revelation of gap themes of varying magnitude. It also reveals the benefits and the limitations of emphasis-based gap assessments. Additionally, the study addresses the complexity of creating the dimensional structure for MBA program gap revelation. Findings This paper reports on the issues of framing dimensions, including the possibility of dimensional omissions, with a particular emphasis on the utilization of an emphasis-based gap model within an a priori identified structure. Practical implications The methodological approach provides a blueprint for additional program review, and it produces a strong structural base for MBA program positioning. It is also is particularly important in evaluating newly created one-year MBA programs. Originality/value The work reveals the potential for the revelation of both under- and over-emphases in MBA program delivery and the possible issue of sub-optimization in gap closing (i.e. the closing of one gap while opening another).

Predicting recidivism for offenders in UK substance dependence treatment: do mental health symptoms matter?

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josefien J.F. Breedvelt ◽  
Lucy V. Dean ◽  
Gail Y. Jones ◽  
Caroline Cole ◽  
Hattie C.A. Moyes
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Substance Dependence ◽  
Mental Health Symptoms ◽  
Health Symptoms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Health Factors ◽  
Substance Dependence Treatment ◽  
One Year ◽  
Mental Health Factors

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess whether mental health symptoms affect one-year reoffending rates upon release from prison for participants engaging in substance dependence treatment in the UK. Design/methodology/approach – A retrospective cohort study was used to assess reconviction outcomes upon release. The Comprehensive Addiction and Psychological Evaluation (CAAPE) was administered to 667 inmates admitted to the programme. The effect of mental health, drug use, and static risk factors on reoffending was assessed at one-year post release. Findings – Logistic regression analysis showed that symptoms of Major Depressive Disorder at the start of substance dependence treatment increased the likelihood to reoffend, whilst Obsessive Compulsive Disorder symptoms and length of sentence decreased the likelihood to reoffend. Antisocial Personality Disorder symptoms show a trend towards increasing the likelihood to reoffend. In addition, previously established risk factors for reoffending, including dependence on heroin, crack/cocaine, and poly drug use significantly increased the likelihood of reconviction. Practical implications – Depressive symptomatology pre-treatment could affect reoffending outcomes for participants in substance dependence treatment in prison. An integrative approach addressing both substance misuse and mental health factors is pivotal. Future efforts to address both simultaneously can be made to improve assessment, training, treatment, and through care for prisoners in substance dependence treatment. Originality/value – Few studies have assessed the effect of mental health factors on reoffending outcomes for offenders in substance dependence treatment. A large sample was studied in an understudied population of UK prisoners in substance dependence treatment. The results have implications for clinical settings where mental health symptoms are not addressed concurrently with substance dependence. This finding can inform policy makers and practitioners who provide substance dependence treatment in prison.

scholarly journals Evaluating undergraduate research conferences as vehicles for novice researcher development

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pauline Kneale ◽  
Andrew Edwards-Jones ◽  
Helen Walkington ◽  
Jennifer Hill
Keyword(s):  
Undergraduate Students ◽  
Undergraduate Research ◽  
Skills Development ◽  
Learning Context ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Research Conference ◽  
Researcher Development ◽  
Development Framework ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to focus on the undergraduate research conference as its sphere of study and investigate the impact of significance of participation and socialisation in such activities on student attitudes and professional development. Using situated learning to theoretically position the undergraduate research conference as an authentic learning context, connection is also made with the concept of graduate attributes. Design/methodology/approach The Vitae (2014) Researcher Development Framework (RDF) is used to provide a template for charting the experiences and development of undergraduate students as researchers. This can be applied to short-term activities and programmes and to long-term career plans. The insights from 90 undergraduate students participating in three national undergraduate research conferences were obtained through interviews, and thematically analysed to map the students’ skills development against the RDF criteria. Findings Three main aspects of undergraduate research conference participation were considered particularly important by the students: the value of paper presentations, the value of poster presentations and the value of the overall conference experience. Within these themes, participants identified a wide range of skills and attributes they felt they had developed as a result of either preparing for or participating in the conferences. The majority of these skills and attributes could be mapped against the different domains of the RDF, using a public engagement lens for comparing actual with expected developmental areas. Research limitations/implications This research helps undergraduate research conference organisers construct programme content and form it in such a way that students’ skill development can be maximised prior to, and during, the course of an event. Learning developers can also use these findings to help understand the support needs of students preparing to deliver papers at such conferences. So far, little empirical research has examined students’ skills development within the undergraduate research conference arena. Originality/value The outcomes of this study show the diversity of the skills that students developed and the value of the conference format for offering networking practice and enhancing the communication skills which employers value.

Hygrothermal analysis of historic buildings

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo Entradas Silva ◽  
Fernando M.A. Henriques
Keyword(s):  
Historic Buildings ◽  
Biological Degradation ◽  
Conservation Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Preventive Conservation ◽  
Climate Targets ◽  
One Year ◽  
Hygrothermal Analysis ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Temperate Climates

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to verify the applicability and efficiency of two statistical methods to obtain sustainable targets of temperature and relative humidity in historic buildings located in temperate climates. Design/methodology/approach – The data recorded along one year in a non-heated historic building in Lisbon (Portugal) was analysed with the two methodologies, EN 15757 and FCT-UNL. To evaluate their adequacy it was calculated the performance index for each target and it was verified the mechanical and biological degradation risks. Findings – While the use of the two approaches is suitable for temperate climates, there is a higher efficiency of the FCT-UNL methodology, allowing a better response for the three parameters in evaluation. Research limitations/implications – Despite the better results obtained, the FCT-UNL methodology was only tested for one city; therefore the application to other situations may be required to obtain more robust conclusions. Practical implications – The effectiveness of the FCT-UNL methodology to obtain sustainable climate targets can lead to important energy conservation in historic buildings and to contribute for the change of old approaches in the preventive conservation area. Originality/value – This paper provides a comparison between two recent methods. The results can lead to some advances in the science of preventive conservation, interesting to conservators and building physic scientists.

Archival Big Data and the Spanish Flu in Copenhagen

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Abildgren
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Early Life ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Early Life Exposure ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
One Year

Purpose The Spanish Flu 1918–1920 saw a high degree of excess mortality among young and healthy adults. The purpose of this paper is a further exploration of the hypothesis that high mortality risk during The Spanish Flu in Copenhagen was associated with early life exposure to The Russian Flu 1889–1892. Design/methodology/approach Based on 37,000 individual-level death records in a new unique database from The Copenhagen City Archives combined with approximate cohort-specific population totals interpolated from official censuses of population, the author compiles monthly time series on all-cause mortality rates 1916–1922 in Copenhagen by gender and one-year birth cohorts. The author then analyses birth cohort effects on mortality risk during The Spanish Flu using regression analysis. Findings The author finds support for hypotheses relating early life exposure to The Russian Flu to mortality risk during The Spanish Flu. Some indications of possible gender heterogeneity during the first wave of The Spanish Flu – not found in previous studies – should be a topic for future research based on data from other countries. Originality/value Due to lack of individual-level death records with exact dates of birth and death, previous studies on The Spanish Flu in Denmark and many other countries have relied on data with lower birth cohort resolutions than the one-year birth cohorts used in this study. The analysis in this paper illustrates how archival Big Data can be used to gain new insights in studies on historical pandemics.

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