Local election wins raise Hungarian opposition hopes

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Municipal Election

Subject Local and municipal election results. Significance The largely united opposition made a major breakthrough in local elections on October 13, taking Budapest and other cities and towns and eroding Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party’s predominant position since 2006. A sex scandal plus changes within the opposition have apparently lost Fidesz the middle class, further emphasising the already stark divide between cities and the countryside. Impacts Orban’s weaker position will dent the confidence of the global right-wing populist movement, of which he is a figurehead. Domestic capital associated with the Orban government is at risk as investors price in a potential loss of government support. The decline in political stability may at least momentarily moderate investor confidence in Hungary.

Liberal majority signals centre-left shift in Canada

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
International Agreement ◽  
High Wage ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Left Shift ◽  
Liberal Government ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Wage Earners

Significance Prime Minister Stephen Harper has resigned as leader of the Conservatives after his party took second place with 99 seats. The election results restore a degree of political stability by producing the second successive majority government in Canada, following the shaky minority Harper governments between 2004 and 2011. Impacts A Liberal government will likely boost infrastructure spending and tax high-wage earners. Trudeau may bring a more activist approach to the Paris climate talks, improving the chances of an international agreement. Harper's departure will likely see a moderation of Canada's support for Israel and a greater focus on multilateralism abroad.

Italy's presidential vote carries significant risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Strong Indication ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

Significance One of the front-runners to replace Mattarella is Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who recently gave a strong indication that he intends to run. However, if Draghi is elected president, there does not appear to be an alternative government which could guarantee political stability and make progress on Italy’s crucial reform agenda. Impacts A situation where there is no strong alternative to Draghi’s leadership may boost the electoral appeal of the far-right Brothers of Italy. The return of political instability would diminish Italy’s leverage in the EU regarding important issues such as foreign and fiscal policy. Unless the right-wing parties perform poorly, it is unlikely that Draghi would be elected as prime minister after the next election.

PM's death will prompt new Ivorian succession struggle

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Legislative Election ◽  
Economic Inequalities

Significance His death was announced a day after the March 6 legislative election results showed the ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) secured 137 out of 254 contested seats. Bakayoko’s death has opened up a race to succeed President Alassane Ouattara at the end of his third and final term in 2025. Impacts Ouattara will likely hand-pick his successor again and seek to spearhead the RHDP’s 2025 campaign. An emboldened opposition will seek to exploit the government’s failure to stem widening economic inequalities. A new prime minister will struggle to create jobs and alleviate poverty to stem public anger and boost his popularity.

Ruling Islamists set to win Morocco local elections

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Service ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Working Relationship ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Royal Court ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Political Backlash

Significance King Mohammed VI has committed forces to the Saudi-led coalition conducing operations in Yemen to reinforce the alliance with Gulf states. It may be because of these ties that Morocco's Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD) survived the regional political backlash against the Muslim Brotherhood -- with which the PJD has some parallels, but no formal links. Prime Minister and PJD leader Abdelilah Benkirane has developed a close working relationship with King Mohammed and the royal court. With the economy performing well, Benkirane's chances of prolonging his mandate look promising. Impacts Local elections will signal the level of popular support for the PJD. If Benkirane retains the premiership post-2016, he may seek a more prominent role for the PJD -- in cabinet and the civil service. This could bring him into conflict with the king.

Sirisena win spells change and challenge for Sri Lanka

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Potential Game ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Game Changer

Significance Sirisena's victory is a potential game-changer: instead of entrenching the autocratic tendencies of his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa's administration, the election results hold out the promise of democratic consolidation under a new government with a robust mandate for constitutional and policy reform. However, the diversity of the coalition backing Sirisena and the sharing of power with newly appointed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe augur a period of volatility. Impacts If Tamil parties emerge as 'kingmakers' in April, governance of war-torn Northern and Western provinces is likely to be overhauled. Delhi, Washington and Brussels will welcome the political transition. Long-term growth prospects will turn on the precise rebalancing of budgetary allocations.

Russia will seek influence in Moldova's Gagauz region

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Economic Support ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
European Parties ◽  
Potential Pressure ◽  
The Eu

Significance However, the June 14 local elections resulted overall in the pro-European parties winning 56.5%, with the pro-Russians securing 31.5%. The result will be a relief for the pro-European camp, which had feared that the ongoing banking scandal -- which has seen 1 billion dollars go missing and the resignation on June 12 of Prime Minister Chiril Gaburici -- could portend an upsurge in support for pro-Russian groups. However, despite the pro-European win, Moldova's Gagauz region remains one of Russia's strongest supporters and will remain a potential pressure point. Impacts Russia's enduring prominence in Gagauzia's political landscape will give Moscow a foothold in Moldovan politics. Russia's interest in Moldovan politics will prompt Moldovan supporters of European integration to speed up that process. The EU will have to continue to support Moldova's economy, if only to match Russia's economic support for Gagauzia.

Local elections may strain Tunisia's unity government

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Governance ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Campaign Strategies ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Election ◽  
Security Personnel ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Election Results

Significance Military and security personnel voted early on April 29, with a turnout of 12%. There are concerns that widespread apathy, coupled with a desire among the Tunisian electorate with the opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with the unity government’s performance, will dampen turnout and undermine the municipal councils from the outset. Impacts The local election results could cause parties to reassess campaign strategies for the 2019 general elections. Local governance will be effective only if adequate mechanisms are in place to transfer financial resources. The municipal elections present an opportunity for women and younger candidates.

Canada faces federal-provincial gridlock on policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
New Right ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Carbon Taxes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Border Trade ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Canadian provincial and federal politicial dynamics. Significance As Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s term gets underway, Quebec is beginning its election campaign, running to October 1; the centre-right Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) will likely perform well. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces a fractious final year, as relations worsen between the Liberal federal government and various new right-wing provincial governments. Leading issues are migration, carbon taxes, cross-border trade and right-wing provincial governments’ socially conservative and fiscally austere agendas. Impacts Failed NAFTA renegotiations would hurt Trudeau’s administration before 2019 and necessitate further post-2019 negotiations. Right-wing provincial premiers will still cooperate with Trudeau to mitigate the effect of US trade tariffs on Canada. Currently, Trudeau and the Liberals are likely to win in 2019, but opposition parties will gain votes.

Warsaw may be isolated in EU on ‘posted workers’

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Competitive Advantage ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
The Right

Subject Poland’s isolation over EU labour reform. Significance "They will not break us," Prime Minister Beata Szydlo said in a recent interview for a right-wing weekly. She was referring to Poland’s opposition to EU migration policy and more generally to a broader set of issues that divide the right-wing government in Warsaw from its EU partners. Szydlo's belligerent rhetoric plays well with domestic audiences but conceals Poland’s inability to build alliances and protect its interests. These weaknesses have become apparent during recent talks on reforming the EU’s Posted Workers Directive. Impacts New regulations may erode the competitive advantage of Polish firms that regularly post workers to western EU member states. The Polish budget would lose posted workers’ social insurance contributions, a loss estimated as worth up to 275 million dollars a month. Poland’s reputation as a regional spokesman for the interests of CEE member states may be undermined.

Quebec weakness will hinder revival of Canada’s NDP

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
New Right ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Democratic ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Climate And Energy Policy

Significance Voting in the race to replace Tom Mulcair as leader of Canada’s social-democratic NDP begins on September 18, with results announced by October 1. The victor of the contest will go on to contest 2019’s federal election against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative leader Andrew Scheer. While not a contender for government, the NDP’s standing and performance at the polls will help determine whether Trudeau’s Liberals are elected to a second term or the Conservatives return to power. Impacts Oil-friendly NDP Alberta Premier Rachel Notley will probably be ousted in 2019 by a new right-wing fusion party. The NDP-Green coalition in British Columbia will pressure the new federal leader for more militant stances on climate and energy policy. Trudeau will probably increase his majority in 2019 should NDP support remain tepid despite a new leader.

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