Romanian centre-right will struggle to form coalition

Significance They have enough seats along with the Hungarian minority party to form a government. But the former communist Social Democratic Party (PSD) and fringe politicians are the main beneficiaries of the general election held on December 6, which revealed deep dissatisfaction with the outgoing minority National Liberal Party (PNL) government, amid a far-right comeback and low turnout. Impacts The COVID-19 crisis has deepened the gulf between much of society and a poorly performing state. Whoever held office in 2020 was likely to have been punished by voters but elite figures' self-serving behaviour continues regardless. If PNL and USR-PLUS do not bury their mutual animosity, PSD or some populist may capture the presidency in 2022.

Significance The motion will be backed by his former coalition partner, the Union to Save Romania (USR), together with the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the nationalist AUR. Citu recently won the National Liberal Party (PNL) leadership contest. If the no-confidence vote succeeds, as seems likely, President Klaus Iohannis can make two attempts to form a new government. Impacts Romania has Europe’s second-lowest COVID-19 vaccination rate; administrative upheaval may worsen performance further. The main political institutions are fast losing credibility, and this is likely to benefit increasingly influential extreme nationalists. A PNL minority government would prioritise survival over serious reform during its remaining time in power.


1994 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 403-417 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Denver ◽  
Hugh Bochel

The Social Democratic Party (SDP) was perhaps the nearest thing to a ‘flash’ party seen in British politics in modern times. It was formed in March 1981, largely on the initiative of four leading figures in the Labour party (Roy Jenkins, David Owen, Shirley Williams and William Rogers), following the apparent success of the left in dominating the party, and initially it had a sensational impact on British politics. It had thirty MPs by March 1982 (mostly as a result of defections by Labour MPs); in alliance with the Liberals it immediately went to first place in the opinion polls and stayed in that position until May 1982. The Alliance won four by-elections between 1981 and 1983, and in the 1983 general election, with 25.4 per cent of the vote, came within two points of ousting Labour from its second place. For the next four years the Alliance held its position and in the 1987 election its vote fell only slightly to 22.6 per cent.


Subject Changes to the political landscape. Significance This year’s general election has transformed the political landscape that prevailed for over two decades in Brazil. The centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) were pushed away from the mainstream by a surging far-right led by President-elect Jair Bolsonaro. After winning four straight presidential elections, the Workers’ Party (PT) was defeated in the runoff. It retains some leverage, but now faces increasingly serious challenges to its hegemony on the centre-left. Impacts Ineffective management of relations with Congress could undermine Bolsonaro’s ability to pass key legislation. Protest movements not aligned to established parties could proliferate in the coming years. Bolsonaro’s Social Liberal Party (PSL) will fail to establish itself as a leading party in the longer term.


Significance The PNL is on the verge of replacing the former communist Social Democratic Party (PSD) in office. The change is more apparent than real. Both wish to lower expectations and anchor politics around the distribution of patronage rather than problem-solving. Impacts Infighting will plague the PSD but its factions may be able to prevent any steep erosion in their main power base at local level. Political disagreements preventing the nomination of an EU commissioner will ensure that EU vigilance towards Romania remains high. The PSD’s departure could boost investor confidence in Romania, badly shaken during the Dragnea period.


Significance Both had been in office since 2006, and Mijalkov was seen as indispensable for his control over the country. Along with Gruevski, both are heavily implicated in the wiretap scandal that Social Democratic Party of Macedonia (SDSM) leader Zoran Zaev has publicised since February. The opposition described the resignations as Gruevski panicking to postpone his own departure, and vowed to continue protests until he resigns. Impacts Macedonia continues to overflow with conspiracy theories about Kumanovo. It is unclear who may have been double-crossing whom -- the government or the 'terrorists' or both. The incident will play into fears of a Greater Albania project to unite all Albanian communities in the Balkans.


Subject The political fallout from anti-government demonstrations. Significance Popular protests unprecedented in size since the restoration of democracy in 1990 have forced a major government retreat. On February 5, Prime Minister Sorin Grindeanu withdrew emergency decrees intended to decriminalise corruption offences and pardon politicians convicted of graft. The ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) is struggling to adapt to the much-altered political landscape. Impacts Fears that Romania is following an East European pattern where dominant parties dismantle checks and balances will be quieted for now. Iohannis’s boldness in the crisis will make him a strong counterweight to the PSD. Reforms designed to clean up politics will be buttressed by the commitment of Romania’s main Western allies.


Subject Kyrgyzstan's parliamentary elections. Significance Parliamentary elections held on October 4 resulted in victory for the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK), which is aligned with President Almazbek Atambayev. Overall, the poll ended with a strong showing for pro-Russian parties, while the nationalist opposition, split into two competing coalitions (Respublika-Ata Jurt and Butun Kyrgyzstan-Emgek) faired relatively poorly. Impacts The results have provided the president with a chance of building a more coherent majority in parliament. Coalition-building should be easier than in recent past and thus governability should be enhanced. The strong performance of the SDPK and the Kyrgyzstan Party plays into the hands of Russia.


Significance The incumbent president, Almazbek Atambayev, is stepping aside as his single term is expiring. Jeenbekov is a strong contender as he comes from the president's Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK), but other leading politicians have reasonable chances in the October polls. Impacts This will be only the second democratic handover of presidential power anywhere in Central Asia; Atambayev's 2011 election was the first. The SDPK has presided over politics since 2010 but its continued dominance is less certain, although it is adept at coalition-building. Signs of fractures in SDPK and Ata-Jurt point to shifts in the political party landscape, affecting the parliamentary process.


2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 746-762
Author(s):  
Dan Keith ◽  
Emma Sanderson-Nash ◽  
Alan Wager

Here, we examine the understudied merger of the Social Democratic Party and the Liberal Party. This systematic study of the process which created the Liberal Democrats in 1988 adds to our understanding of what was a rare but important event in British politics. We demonstrate that it deviated from theoretical accounts of such mergers that stress the need for trust at the elite level. We recognise that inter-party trust can instead develop across the three faces of party organisation. We contribute a new typology for understanding these processes, and argue that existing studies are right to highlight that trust between the party in public office is important but wrong to conclude that its absence precludes mergers from occurring. Instead, we find that a lack of trust between parties in public office restricts the degree of delegation and increases the level of monitoring and formalisation, which can have damaging effects on the parties that emerge.


Subject Political outlook. Significance Scheduled parliamentary elections take place on November 8. Opinion polls point to a slim victory for the opposition Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), the gap with the ruling Social Democratic Party (SDP) having narrowed. A shift in power does not herald any significant change in either the government's effectiveness or policy direction. Like its predecessor, an HDZ-led administration would be weak and beholden to an angry public's whims. Impacts HDZ's lead in the polling has fallen lately, but politics will turn nationalist whoever wins the election. Croatia is on a journey towards Hungarian-style economic nationalism and a more sceptical approach towards the EU. Support is likely to increase for Bosnian Croat attempts to form a third Bosnian entity, contributing to the steady collapse of BiH.


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