Prospects for global trade in 2020-24

Subject Prospects for global trade in 2020-24. Significance US-China competition and a ‘populist backlash’ against trade in advanced nations are intensifying fears that the world is entering de-globalisation. World trade volumes are expected to grow modestly in 2019 and 2020, while the US-China trade conflict roils the multilateral trading system and global value chains, harming investment and job creation.

Author(s):  
James P. Murphy ◽  
Carolan McLarney

Regionalism and the Multilateral Trading System: The Role of Regional Trade Agreements is a discussion about the new reality and the evolution of the reduction of international barriers to freer trade under the World Trade Organization (WTO) formerly the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT). The chapter devotes time to the two largest regional trade agreements (RTAs), the European Union (EU) with 28 countries and North American Trading Agreement (NAFTA) with three countries account for half of all world trade (WTO, 2017a). The US set a course post World War II as the proponent of globalization and freer trade. RTAs at that time were failing or inconsequential. In response to the EU trading block, the US committed to a (Free Trade Area) FTA with Canada and subsequently the NAFTA with Canada and Mexico the rest of the world began to become concerned about being shut out of a preferential trade deal. The main theme of the chapter is that trade liberalization is moving forward because of Regional Trading agreements, not the WTO which is stalled and may never restart in its current form.


Author(s):  
T. M. Isachenko

Maximizing the benefits of international division of labor and sharing the achievements of innovative development is possible only with the existence of a strict system of rules and regulations. Such system would enable fair regulation of international trade, ensure the transparency of market access and make it possible to challenge discriminatory measures, as well as to maintain certain measures to protect the interests of domestic producers. The creation of the multilateral trading system has started with the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and was subsequently developed in the documents and codes, the decisions of the negotiating rounds. Since 1995, a set of rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO) became the basis of the multilateral trading system. All rules are worked out at the multilateral level. However, in recent years the negotiations within the WTO has slowed down, that affected the quality and speed of decision-making on key issues of global development. That provokes the discussion it on a certain crisis of the WTO as the main regulator of world trade, and therefore the need to provide both institutional and substantive reforms.


Author(s):  
Badar Iqbal ◽  
Munir Hasan

More than 11 years have passed and Doha Development Round (DDR) has been in the doldrums, having full uncertainties that may result in closure. Trade negotiations are at a standstill, resulting in revivalism of trade protectionism in the name of “new regionalism” or preferential agreements (India-Japan, India-EU). This would lead to dismantling multilateral trading system for which World Trade Organization was created in January 1995. It is vital to protect and preserve the gains of the WTO in a variety of related areas. Therefore, the success of a multilateral trading system is imperative, and this could only be possible when DDR is successful and revivalism takes place. If impasse is continued, the concept and practices of free trade would be transformed into trade protectionism in the name of new regionalism. If it happens, then the future of global trade is uncertain and there would be enormous loss of potential and opportunities of creation of trade, and no country could afford it. Doha is stuck. Where do we go from here? The present chapter analyses the issues relating to the closure vs. success of the DDR. Every effort must be made to keep it alive both in the interest of mankind and the globe. If in 12th round, nothing concrete comes up, then the member countries are thinking and planning to replace it by Global Recovery Round (GRR), which is becoming more significant to deal with. Hence, this chapter attempts to examine the three options, namely closure, revival, and replace.


Subject Prospects for the global economy to end-2019. Significance The world economy is likely to grow by around 3% this year. This is the lower end of the 3.0-3.5% range expected six months ago. World trade is weakening amid the US-China conflict and productivity is not picking up. China is expanding fiscal policy and others may follow, perhaps Germany and the United States. Monetary tightening is off the table and some countries may loosen policy. However, this will mainly shore up growth rather than raising it.


Significance Divided government provides scope for volatility at a perilous time for the pandemic-ravaged US economy, but markets are putting greater weight on the prospect of a vaccine accelerating the global recovery. Tech stocks have fallen as investors take their gains and opt for 'reflation trades' predicated on a recovery in sectors hit hard by the pandemic. Impacts Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Facebook make up over 20% of the US stock market; firm fundamentals guard against a sharp sell-off. China’s renminbi has risen to the highest to the dollar since the US-China tariff battle ramped up in early 2018; more strength is likely. China’s export orders grew only marginally in October and import growth slowed, signposting that the world trade recovery could plateau.


2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (S1) ◽  
pp. S1-S7 ◽  
Author(s):  
MERIT E. JANOW ◽  
PETROS C. MAVROIDIS

The digitalization of trade is a reality, and yet the regulation of the world trading system as embedded in the World Trade Organization (WTO) only tangentially, if at all, touches upon this issue. True, digitalization of the economy, the fourth industrial revolution as it is colloquially referred to, is a recent phenomenon, and to some extent post-dates the conclusion of the Uruguay round agreements (1994). True also, however, is the reality that the world trading system has shown a remarkable inability to adjust to modern business realities in its multilateral rule architecture. To the extent these transformations are being reflected in new rules, they are being introduced in regional or bilateral frameworks, albeit in an incomplete fashion. It is also the case that the world is witnessing several different regimes around data and information economy developing in the world today – most notably in the US, Europe, and China. As always, part of the reason that international frameworks have not been born stems from the fact that international rules rarely occur before domestic regulatory and legal regimes are well developed.


2017 ◽  
Vol 111 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sherzod Shadikhodjaev

In a proceeding that challenged the domestic content requirements (DCRs) of India's solar energy program, the Appellate Body of the World Trade Organization (WTO) upheld the panel determination that the Indian government's measures violated its international obligations. The decision offers new insights into certain exceptions for environmental policies under the multilateral trading system and elaborates on the relevance of other international legal regimes to the compliance issue under WTO law. Further, it has the potential to increase export opportunities of many countries in the Indian renewable energy market.


2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 295
Author(s):  
Arno Dal Ri Júnior ◽  
Mariana Clara De Andrade

 ResumoO presente artigo aborda as negociações internacionais relativas à tutela ambiental no sistema multilateral de comércio no período que compreende o fim da Rodada de Tóquio (1979) até o fim da Rodada do Uruguai (1994) e a instituição da Organização Mundial do Comércio. Para tanto, analisa-se brevemente as mudanças surgidas no cenário do Direito Internacional Ambiental no ínterim situado entre as duas rodadas referidas para que se contextualize os impactos dos eventos ocorridos no período, particularmente com os adventos da Conferência de Estocolmo (1972) e a Rio-92 (1992). A partir disso, são analisados documentos das negociações do grupo GATT relevantes a questões ambientais, com o objetivo de se verificar o desenvolvimento institucional e normativo ocorrido durante o período citado, com enfoque particular na Rodada do Uruguai. Verifica-se a forte influência dos acontecimentos entre as décadas de 1970 e 1990 no cenário internacional e, particularmente, no sistema multilateral de comércio, culminando com a inclusão da preocupação com o desenvolvimento sustentável no preâmbulo do Acordo Constitutivo da OMC, em 1994.Palavras-chaveGATT; Rodada do Uruguai; Meio Ambiente; Sistema Multilateral de Comércio; Direito Internacional Ambiental. AbstractThe present article studies the international negotiations related to the environmental protection in the multilateral trading system, in the period comprised from the end of the Tokyo Round (1979) to the end of the Uruguay Round and the institution of the World Trade Organization (1994). In order to do so, it describes briefly the changes emerged in the context of International Environmental Law during the interim between the two rounds, so as to expose the impacts of the events that occurred in this period, especially those brought about by the advent of the Stockholm Conference (1972) and the Rio-92 (1992). Afterwards, this work analyses the documents concerning environmental matters produced in the negotiations of the GATT group in the period post-1972, with the aim of verifying the institutional and legal development of the system during the aforementioned interlude, with particular attention to the Uruguay Round. From this perspective, it can be observed the strong influence of the events that took place from 1970 to 1990 in the international scenario and, particularly, in the multilateral trading system, culminating with the assertion of the concern with sustainable development in the Preamble of the Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organization, in 1994. KeywordsGATT; Uruguay Round; Environment; Multilateral Trading System; International Environmental Law.


Author(s):  
Sivan Shlomo Agon

This chapter sets the scene for the analysis of the Dispute Settlement System (DSS) operation and goal-attainment efforts in ‘linkage’ (or ‘trade-and’) disputes, the dispute category at the centre of Part II. As the chapter explains, linkage disputes have long subjected the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the DSS to intense legitimacy challenges; they thus form an instructive site for examining how the systemic challenges raised in such cases shape DSS goal-attainment efforts, motivate shifts and trade-offs between its goals, and, in consequence, affect DSS effectiveness in realizing its manifold objectives. The chapter first clarifies the notion of legitimacy as employed here, and situates the story of linkage disputes in the broader historical and institutional context of the multilateral trading system. It then unpacks the various legitimacy challenges encapsulated in linkage disputes while highlighting the shifts these challenges seem to generate between DSS goals, engaging the system in a heightened quest after its legitimization objectives.


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