South African economy faces severe recession in 2020

Significance The announcement will put further pressure on South Africa’s already stressed financial markets. The rand and bond prices fell sharply yesterday, raising questions about whether the downgrade had indeed already been priced in by the market. Impacts The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) may have to take further measures in the coming weeks to stabilise markets. The recent bond market crash means that borrowing costs will go up across the economy and will weigh on banks' ability to fund customers. The government and the SARB will likely be forced soon to unveil further measures to support businesses and the growing unemployed.

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Marianne Matthee ◽  
Albert Wöcke

Subject area Macro-Economics. Study level/applicability Undergraduate and MBA. Case overview The COVID 19 pandemic-related restrictions devastated South Africa’s economy in 2020 and although the restrictions were generally less damaging than in 2020, the government had to budget for vaccinations and rebuild the economy. Public service unions had just announced that they were demanding an increase of 4% above inflation for their members and that they were preparing for a strike. They were bitter about the fact that the South African Government had withdrawn from the last year of a three-year wage agreement in February 2020 and their members had not received an increase for the two years. These demands and Finance Minister Mboweni’s response to them had to consider the structural and cyclical impact on the fiscus and economy. Expected learning outcomes The learning outcomes are as follows: understand the general objectives of fiscal policy and stakeholders’ interests; understand the tradeoffs in fiscal policy and the implications of taking a position; and make recommendations based on reasoned judgements about those recommendations. Complexity academic level Undergraduate and MBA level courses on Macro Economics. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 10: Public Sector Management.


Significance A former South African Reserve Bank (SARB) governor and minister of labour, Mboweni faces a crucial first few weeks in his new post as the government attempts to placate rating agencies and engineer an economic turnaround. Mboweni’s initial moves may be determined by Moody’s credit rating review expected today. Impacts In the short term, Mboweni’s appointment will be a boost for Ramaphosa’s bid for fiscal consolidation and growth. In the medium-to-long term, Mboweni will likely prove a more polarising figure inside the ANC than Nene. Allegations linking the Economic Freedom Fighters with a major banking scandal could give Mboweni and the ANC an early political 'win'. Mboweni's previous social media utterances could be further exploited by opponents, both left and right, in the months ahead.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard Chitimira

Purpose Money laundering activities were allegedly rampant and poorly regulated in the South African financial markets and financial institutions prior to 1998. In other words, prior to the enactment of the Prevention of Organised Crime Act 121 of 1998 as amended (POCA), there was no statute that expressly and adequately provided for the regulation of money laundering in South Africa. Consequently, the POCA was enacted to curb organised criminal activities such as money laundering in South Africa. Thereafter, the Financial Intelligence Centre Act 38 of 2001 as amended (FICA) was enacted in a bid to, inter alia, enhance financial regulation and the combating of money laundering in the South African financial institutions and financial markets. Design/methodology/approach The paper provides an overview analysis of the current legislation regulating money laundering in South Africa. In this regard, prohibited offences and measures that are used to curb money laundering under each relevant statute are discussed. The paper further discusses the regulation and use of customer due diligence measures to combat money laundering activities in South Africa. Accordingly, the regulation of customer due diligence under the FICA and the Banks Act 94 of 1990 as amended (Banks Act) is provided. Findings It is hoped that policymakers and other relevant persons will use the recommendations provided in the paper to enhance the curbing of money laundering in South Africa. Research limitations/implications The paper does not provide empirical research. Practical implications The paper is useful to all policymakers, lawyers, law students, regulatory bodies, especially, in South Africa. Social implications The paper seeks to curb money laundering in the economy and society at large, especially in the South African financial markets. Originality/value The paper is original research on the South African anti-money laundering regime.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rogan Pietersen ◽  
Ilse Botha

Orientation: Globalisation of financial markets has made it progressively more difficult for effective diversification to exist, and as a result portfolio managers are in need of alternative diversification opportunities.Research purpose: Developed financial markets are more likely to be integrated with one another, and better diversification opportunities may be found in emerging markets.Research motivation: Limited research focuses on bond market diversification, and most research does not include South Africa as a diversification destination. This research examines whether developed bond market investors could use South African bonds to diversify their portfolios.Research design, approach and method: This article follows a quantitative research design with a causal-comparative or quasi-experimental approach. The econometric method used was primarily co-integration analysis establishing whether diversification opportunities exist between the South African bond market and five developed bond markets.Main findings: Overall, the findings showed that there was no co-integrating relationship between the South African bond market and developed bond markets, indicating that diversification may be possible in the long term. Furthermore, it was found that the South African bonds were less affected by short-term shocks compared with the developed market bonds.Practical/managerial implications: The results of this study indicated that South African bonds can be used to diversify a developed bond market investors portfolio. Developed bond market traders and fund managers should therefore consider holding South African bonds as a means of reducing their portfolio’s overall risk.Contribution/value-add: Holding South African bonds can be used to preserve a portfolio’s long-term wealth. Additionally, the resistance of South African bonds to short-run shocks also provides investors with a cushion against sudden and unexpected crises.


Subject South African corporate governance Significance South African corporate governance has come under intense scrutiny in recent months after the high-profile accounting scandal and fraud allegations surrounding retailer Steinhoff. Separately, a small lender, VBS Mutual Bank, has been placed into curatorship by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), while auditing firms KPMG and Deloitte are subject to regulatory investigations into alleged complicity in public-private sector corruption. Impacts Prospective new leadership at the South African Revenue Service (SARS) could halt institutional rot and improve revenue collection. South African shareholders will demand greater board accountability and fund manager activism. The mooted part-privatisation of state assets will buoy investors, but sizeable trade union opposition is likely.


2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 797-811 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charl de Villiers ◽  
Dannielle Cerbone ◽  
Wayne Van Zijl

PurposeThis paper provides a critical analysis of the South African government's response to the COVID-19 crisis and its effect on state finances and budgets.Design/methodology/approachThe paper critically analyses publicly available data.FindingsThe South African government's initial health response was praised by the international community, given the early lockdown and extensive testing regime. The lockdown devastated an already precarious economy, which led to negative social consequences. The initial lockdown delayed the epidemic, but subsequently, the infection rate climbed, requiring new restrictions, suggesting further economic disruption. The government has had to increase its borrowings, while the future tax take is forecast to be significantly reduced, a combination which will lead to a severely constrained public purse for many years to come. This will limit the government's ability to address the basic social needs that predated the COVID-19 crisis.Originality/valueThis is one of the first academic papers to critically assess the effect of the South African government's response to the COVID-19 crisis on state finances and budgets.


2000 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Vorster ◽  
J.H. Van Wyk

Church and government within a constitutional state. The prophetic calling of the church towards the South-African government With the transition to a new political dispensation in South Africa, a constitutional state has been established. A typical characteristic of this new dispensation is that the government remains neutral while the executive powers are subject to the Bill of Human Rights. The question of how the church can realize its prophetic task towards the government within the context of a constitutional state is highlighted in this article. The central theoretical argument is that a constitutional state that acknowledges fundamental rights provides an excellent opportunity for the church to fulfil its prophetic calling within the South African context. The church can contribute to a just society by prophetic testimony within the perspective of the kingdom of God.


Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.


Author(s):  
Gustaaf Janssens

A purely cultural perception of records and archives is one-sided andincomplete. Records and archival documents are necessary to confirm therights and the obligations of both the government and the citizens. "Therecords are crucial to hold us accountable", says archbishop D. Tutu, formerpresident of the South African 'Truth and Reconciliation Commission'. Forthis reason, the government should organize the archives in such a way thatarchival services can fulfil their task as guardians of society's memorie.Citizens' rights and archives have a close relationship.


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