New UK Labour leadership will concern the government

Subject A profile of Keir Starmer. Significance On April 4 Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader with 56.2% of the vote, replacing hard-leftist Jeremy Corbyn. Starmer’s background as a former director of public prosecutions who hails from Labour's more moderate wing gives him the gravitas and experience necessary to turn Labour into a more serious opposition party. Impacts The scale of Starmer’s victory has given him a mandate to reform the party. The broad ideological spectrum of Starmer’s shadow cabinet reflects his intentions to unite the party. Starmer will primarily focus on regaining seats in England and Wales; those lost in Scotland over the last decade are a lower-order concern.

Subject Labour leadership race. Significance The main opposition Labour Party is preparing to hold a leadership election to replace Jeremy Corbyn, who is stepping down after the centre-left party’s worst electoral performance in over 80 years. Impacts All prospective successors will avoid openly advocating a radical departure from the outgoing leadership's agenda. The next leader will focus on regaining seats in England and Wales; those lost in Scotland over the last decade are a lower-order concern. Labour’s stance on relations with the EU will likely be determined by public perceptions of the Conservative government's achievements.


Significance Corbyn's video appeal, directed at Jewish members of the Labour Party, followed a similar approach to Jewish groups the previous day. However, his attempts to address the anti-Semitism dispute that has engulfed his party are failing to convince either the target audience or his internal critics, with deputy leader Tom Watson warning the same day that the opposition party was failing to present itself as fit to lead the nation. Since parliament went into summer recess on July 24, political news has been dominated not by the Conservative Party’s evident difficulties with Brexit but by the Labour Party’s self-inflicted wounds over anti-Semitism. Impacts The anti-Semitism row limits Labour’s ability to provide effective opposition to the government, including on Brexit. The dispute is likely to alienate Jewish voters. Unaddressed, the issue makes it more likely that Labour MPs will break away from the party in 2019-20 once the Brexit terms are settled.


Significance Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn has been ambiguous on this issue, and the period since Labour’s unexpectedly strong performance in the general election on June 8 has seen the party publicly divided over its stand on the Brexit negotiations. Impacts Labour’s lack of clear support for a ‘soft’ Brexit may act to preclude single market and customs union membership as long-term options. Labour's ambiguous stand on Brexit puts the Conservative government under less pressure to clarify its own Brexit strategy. Adopting a clearer stand on Brexit would probably cost Labour votes owing to deep divisions on the issue within its electorate.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne-Marie Day

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to consider the impact on children in custody of the government response to COVID-19 in England and Wales. As the majority of children are held in young offender institutions, this forms the focus of the piece. Design/methodology/approach A review and opinion piece on the government response and the impact of decisions about the juvenile custodial estate on incarcerated children. Findings No specific findings as this is an opinion piece. Originality/value This paper offers a viewpoint on the government response to COVID-19 and its impact on children in custody. It considers key publications that have cited concerns since the lockdown and seeks to identify key themes emerging from the publications.


2020 ◽  
pp. 89-112
Author(s):  
Rodney Brazier

A person normally becomes Prime Minister either after winning a General Election, or after the Government party has elected a new leader to succeed a Prime Minister. Leadership of one of the main political parties is therefore a prerequisite for entering Number 10 Downing Street. This chapter examines exactly how the main parties have elected their leaders since 1902, setting the processes in their historical contexts, and explaining why the systems have been changed down the years. The Conservative Party did not have a formal system until after a major crisis in 1963; Labour has always elected its leader; but the systems which have been used have been altered for political reasons. Recent leadership elections, e.g. of Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Jeremy Corbyn, are examined. The chapter also explains the ways in which an opposition party can get rid of a leader who doesn’t want to quit.


Subject Outlook for the new government. Significance Despite opinion polls before the February 25 election indicating a victory for the incumbent People's National Party (PNP), the opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) won a narrow one-seat victory and JLP leader Andrew Holness was sworn in as prime minister for a second time on March 3. The PNP ran a lacklustre campaign that failed to galvanise its core supporters. In contrast, the JLP offered a positive message of tax cuts and job creation. Impacts Absent rapid economic improvements, public opinion may turn against the new government. Juggling IMF targets and popular demands may prove beyond the JLP's capabilities. The government has only a narrow window of opportunity before the PNP recovers from its surprise defeat.


Subject Political outlook for Malaysia's prime minister. Significance This year's United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) general assembly, which concluded on December 12, emphasised unity in the face of some party fragmentation. Party leader and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak used the meeting again to reject criticisms surrounding his government over the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) state investment fund and political contributions. Despite infighting, the party assembly and some recent parliamentary victories imply Najib is consolidating his political position. Impacts Some UMNO critics of Najib may defect, but with a weak opposition coalition, defectors' influence would be limited. New security council legislation will alienate parts of Malaysian civil society. The government will face international pressure not to 'abuse' this legislation.


Significance The government is aligning itself with the emerging international strategy against ISG in Syria. Its push to participate in airstrikes in part reflects a wish to reassert the United Kingdom's role as an international security partner, especially to the United States and France. Impacts The government envisages airstrikes as being needed for at least 12-18 months. The United Kingdom will be important but secondary in the anti-ISG coalition, with the United States continuing to conduct most operations. In the interests of its anti-ISG strategy, the government will temper its insistence on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stepping down. The risk of an Islamist terrorist attack in the United Kingdom will increase. If Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn comes to be seen as correct in his anti-airstrikes stance, it will further envenom relations on the left.


Subject Borisov’s third administration. Significance The government approved by parliament on May 4 is Prime Minister Boyko Borisov’s third since 2009. It is the first time his Citizens for Bulgaria’s European Development (GERB) party has joined in formal coalition with United Patriots (OB), a bloc comprising three nationalist parties. Two OB leaders, Krasimir Karakachanov and Valery Simeonov, are deputy prime ministers, but only the former combines this position with a portfolio (defence). OB’s third and most controversial leader -- Ataka party leader Volen Siderov, noted previously for rabid anti-NATO and pro-Putin statements -- has no formal government role. Impacts GERB has reaffirmed its domination of Bulgarian politics with minimal concessions to its formal coalition partners. The spectre of increased Russian influence over Bulgarian politics that worried some EU partners has seemingly dissipated. A firmer line against migration is likely as a sop to OB, but meaningful reform of the judiciary will again be strenuously avoided. Sofia’s worries about Turkey and the Western Balkans and its forthcoming EU presidency may make it more amenable to EU influence and advice.


Significance The centrist, 'Blairite' section of the party has been defeated and largely excluded from leadership positions. Corbyn's past statements and policy stances are widely believed to render him implausible as a potential prime minister, and thus the Labour Party unelectable with him as leader. The likelihood of the governing Conservatives winning the 2020 general election has increased. Impacts Corbyn is likely to back continued UK EU membership in the referendum, helping to protect him from an early party coup. Because of his previous ambivalence, Corbyn's backing for continued EU membership will make it harder for the left to back 'Brexit'. Foreign policy issues will be among the most difficult under Corbyn, both within the party and with the government. Given the government's small majority, Corbyn's win will make parliamentary support for air strikes against Syrian targets harder to secure. Corbyn's win is unlikely to restore Labour's fortunes in Scotland, potentially boosting support for independence.


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