USMCA could influence future trade deals’ focus

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Rules Of Origin ◽  
Trade Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Trade Frictions ◽  
Trade Deals

Significance US President Donald Trump has left the Trans-Pacific Partnership and escalated trade frictions with China. The USMCA, by contrast, shows a trade deal renegotiated, the implementation of which will be watched for its implications for other US trade activity, especially with the presidential election coming in November. Impacts COVID-19 disruptions mean some aspects of the USMCA, such as rules of origin, will be delayed. If Trump is re-elected, he will continue his tariff-driven efforts to secure Chinese economic reform for US firms. Biden would aspire to strengthen US-Asian trade ties but would focus first on smoothing trade with existing partners. China and neighbours should assume a Mexican challenge to their production, especially of autos, steel and textiles. Trump will tout the USMCA as evidence his trade reform agenda works.

Iran's new parliament will facilitate reform agenda

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Government ◽  
International Engagement

Significance The successes of forces supportive of the government and the heavy losses incurred by the government's most vocal conservative opponents represent a strong endorsement of the nuclear deal and signal a comeback for reformist forces following the disputed 2009 presidential election. Impacts Rouhani is highly likely to be re-elected in the 2017 presidential race. Parliament will be much more supportive of implementation of the nuclear agreement and Rouhani's economic reform agenda. This gives Rouhani better prospects of steering the country's economy and foreign relations towards greater international engagement.

Politics set to slow Pakistan's divestment drive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Core Condition

Subject Pakistan's divestment drive. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government describes divestment of public sector enterprises (PSEs), involving 69 firms, as an essential part of its 2013-18 economic reform agenda. Progress thus far is limited, but the government faces rising pressure from the IMF, which made divestment a core condition of its 6.6-billion-dollar, three-year loan in September 2013. Impacts Another government led by Sharif would continue gradual divestments after 2018. Since PSEs are an important vector for distributing political patronage, structural reforms will face stiff resistance. Divestment of profitable PSEs defeats the purpose of the exercise, but the government will use them for a short-term cash boost.

Crisis may spell end of South Korea's Park presidency

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Security Clearance ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political crisis in South Korea. Significance President Park Geun-hye, whose leadership has been characterised foremost by scandals and the failure of every major policy initiative, faces her worst crisis yet. She admitted on October 25 to sharing official documents with Choi Sun-sil -- a long-time associate who has no formal post or security clearance. Park sacked all her senior secretaries on October 28, and the next day prosecutors searched the presidential office, and demonstrators called on Park to resign. Yesterday Choi flew back from Germany, where she had been lying low since July, saying she will co-operate with investigations. To opposition outrage, no move was made to arrest her upon arrival. Impacts The crisis is deeply negative for governance, domestically and abroad, especially if lines of authority in Seoul become contested. Park now has no standing left to press any elements of her fraying economic reform agenda. The National Assembly, normally secondary to the executive branch, will become the main locus of power for the time being. Though the ruling party seeks to distance itself, the scandal boosts the opposition's chances of regaining the presidency. The already flagging push (which Park spearheaded) for greater international pressure on Pyongyang will lose further momentum.

Philippine-US leaders meeting will refresh alliance

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Powers ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Philippine Government ◽  
Trade Deals

Significance This follows a meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Philippine counterpart, Rodrigo Duterte, on November 13 during Trump's visit to Manila for the 40th US-ASEAN Summit. Impacts Manila will warm ties with Washington once more, but also with Beijing and Moscow. The Philippine government will also seek free trade deals (multilateral and bilateral) with other regional powers. US government pressure on Philippine human rights protections will likely be restrained in favour of trade.

Incoherent US trade plans may get nastier not clearer

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
International Financial Institutions ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Trade Policy ◽  
Trade Sanctions ◽  
Trade Deals

Subject US trade policy. Significance During his election campaign, Donald Trump slammed decades of US policy and pledged to secure better trade deals, putting 'America First'. Upon taking office, Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), but six months on, his trade agenda remains disjointed. Impacts Trump could use executive powers in a more sweeping fashion if he cannot deliver trade changes via legislation. Washington will expand secondary trade sanctions on firms and people that deal with North Korea, most of which are Chinese. Securing 'big-ticket' export deals will be a means for Trump to deliver manufacturing jobs to his political heartland. US opposition to funding and reforms of international financial institutions could reduce the momentum behind global cooperation.

US election lawsuits unlikely to change result

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Run Off ◽  
The Us ◽  
Court Intervention ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Vote Counting

Significance However, Republican President Donald Trump is alleging that vote tallies are fraudulent and inaccurate. He is seeking recounts and undertaking lawsuits over alleged vote-counting irregularities. Impacts Two run-off elections in Georgia will determine whether the US Senate stays Republican or is tied 50-50 with the Democrats. Given the type of complaints raised by Trump’s campaign, prospects for a Supreme Court intervention look remote. Controversy over the election result will linger, perhaps until the 2024 presidential election.

Biden’s US foreign policy agenda is emerging

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
China Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending

Significance Biden and Republican President Donald Trump, seeking re-election, are already sparring over US-China policy; this and other differences over foreign policy will mark the candidates’ campaigning. Impacts Biden would reduce US tariffs on China, favouring more targeted tariffs, but still push for Chinese economic reform. He would increase US attention to the Asia-Pacific, and work with China on North Korean denuclearisation. The next president will likely have to trim US defence spending and commitments overseas. Biden will refer to the Obama administration’s record as evidence of his fitness to govern.

Democrats will avoid block on US Supreme Court pick

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Personal Influence ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Us Supreme Court ◽  
Regulatory Powers

Significance President Donald Trump nominated Gorsuch to fill the Supreme Court seat left vacant by Justice Antonin Scalia’s death last year. Congressional Republicans blocked former President Barack Obama’s nominee to fill the vacancy, Judge Merrick Garland, enabling Trump to name a conservative justice to set the balance of the Court after winning the presidential election. At least one Democratic senator has threatened to block Gorsuch’s appointment via upper house procedure. Impacts Future Democratic presidential candidates from the current Senate may suffer in primaries if they allow Gorsuch’s appointment. Gorsuch will help the White House and Congress severely cut back federal regulatory powers. Congressional Republicans are more likely to defy Trump on personnel and policy as his personal influence wanes ahead of the 2020 elections.

Singapore political spats imply future pressures

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Succession Planning ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Narrative

Subject Singapore politics update. Significance Singapore’s minister for home affairs and for law, Kasiviswanathan Shanmugam, took to social media on October 8 to rebut criticisms made by opposition figure and 2011 presidential candidate Tan Cheng Bock. The spat relates to the government’s decision to limit the latest presidential election to ethnic Malay candidates only. The decision has been viewed by government critics as a means of barring Tan from running next time. Impacts The recent political turbulence in Singapore will not affect the country’s economy. Criticisms of the presidential election will not affect daily policymaking: the presidency is largely symbolic. Lee will visit US President Donald Trump on October 23, which will move Singapore’s political narrative on from domestic spats. Questions about succession planning in the governing party are likely to loom increasingly large in coming years.

Pension reform could derail France’s Macron

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Innovation Fund ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Macron’s economic reform agenda. Significance President Emmanuel Macron views his reforms through the prism of power: by strengthening the economy, he hopes to win credibility with Germany, whose support he needs to reform the EU and euro-area. However, the apparent ease of his labour regulations reform in September does not diminish the risk of his next two targets: unemployment benefits and pensions. Impacts With a shrinking share of euro-area exports, France will see limited benefit from the stronger global economy. Business confidence may increase if the government eases the regulatory burden on medium-to-large businesses. Financing an innovation fund by selling off some state assets will take time and likely have little impact on confidence.

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