US armed UAV precedent will hinder global rules-making

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
International Norms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Intelligence Sharing ◽  
Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Wide Range

Subject Post-Obama armed UAV policy. Significance As President Barack Obama prepares to leave office in January 2017, his administration has called for the United States to lead development of a set of international norms to govern the use of armed UAVs ('unmanned aerial vehicles' or 'drones'). The international proliferation and military use of armed UAVs by nations outside the circle of trusted US allies have highlighted the urgency of formulating clearly articulated international rules to govern an otherwise vaguely defined arena of international behaviour dominated by US precedent. Impacts Congressional aversion to supporting ground interventions abroad will enable the next president further to delay UAV policy reform. A wide range of countries frustrated with restrictions from Washington may turn to China as a key supplier of armed UAVs. Failed US efforts to reform the covert drone programme may complicate intelligence-sharing with European allies.

Rules will favour commercial drones as market firms up

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles ◽  
The United States ◽  
Regulatory Compliance ◽  
Compliance Costs ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Operations ◽  
Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Model Aircraft

Subject Rules for consumer and commercial drones. Significance Regulations designed to integrate unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into the wider airspace have led to conflict between consumer enthusiasts and commercial UAV operators, particularly in the largest market, the United States. At the centre of the argument is whether hobbyist model aircraft and consumer drones should be exempt from carrying electronic identification. Impacts Commercial UAV operators will need to account for how interference from consumer drones may affect their business operations. Electronic identification rules would increase the manufacturing and regulatory compliance costs of hobbyist drones. Consumer appetite for drone deliveries will hinge on their safety and security.

EU and United States diverge on gene-edited crops

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Gene Editing ◽  
Genetically Modified Organisms ◽  
The United States ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Crops ◽  
European Court ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Global Agriculture

Subject Regulation of gene-edited organisms. Significance The European Court of Justice (ECJ) last month ruled that new processes for altering the genetic structure of organisms should be subject to existing EU legislation on genetically modified organisms (GMOs). The move calls into question whether European researchers and businesses will be able to participate in the global race to exploit the rapidly evolving technology of gene editing. Impacts Innovation in gene editing will usher in a wide range of new crops in the United States and emerging economies over the next decade. This will further enhance the position of GM products in global agriculture (particularly for staples such as soybean, cotton and maize). The EU is unlikely to apply trade restrictions upon such products.

Divergence on Chinese 5G strains 'Five Eyes' alliance

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Market Share ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Intelligence Sharing ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Eu

Subject Outlook for the Five Eyes alliance. Significance The stability of the Five Eyes intelligence sharing partnership between Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States is under stress over Chinese participation in the members’ 5G telecommunications networks. Impacts Possible US concessions on the supply chains of Chinese firms would ease strain within the Five Eyes alliance. European corporates will redouble efforts to burnish their security credentials to capture 5G market share. London’s eventual decision on Huawei will influence the EU and Asian democracies.

Castro reforms set to slow in Cuba

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Domestic Policy ◽  
Development Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hurricane Damage ◽  
Eastern Cuba ◽  
Trade Deals

Subject Rapprochement and reform efforts. Significance On October 14, US President Barack Obama announced further moves to ease sanctions on Cuba, lifting the 100-dollar limit on bringing Cuban cigars and rum into the United States. While this will give Cuba a boost, its economic situation remains dire. New debt and trade deals with Japan, China and the CAF development bank are insufficient to offset the deadlock in domestic policy, which has reforms moving into reverse. Impacts US demand for Cuban cigars will increase pressure to lift sanctions. Cuban energy cuts will affect the output of state companies, dragging the economy down. Hurricane damage to eastern Cuba will exacerbate the gap between the impoverished east and more dynamic west.

US F-16 sale will strengthen Taiwan's China-sceptics

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Trade Negotiations ◽  
Fighter Aircraft ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Us ◽  
Total Price ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject The US decision to sell advanced F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan. Significance The Trump administration has authorised the sale to Taiwan of 66 advanced F-16 fighter jets, the most coveted item among Taipei's wish-list of arms purchases from the United States. Taiwan has sought the purchase of advanced fighter aircraft for years, but the White House under both George W Bush and Barack Obama agreed only to upgrades for Taiwan's existing F-16 fleet. The total price is estimated to reach about 8 billion dollars. Impacts The arms sale will provide a boost in confidence for Taiwan, which has been falling behind China in defence capabilities. US-Taiwan cooperation will increase, despite Washington not formally recognising Taiwan as a sovereign nation. Taipei will seek dialogue with Beijing, but will be rebuffed at least until after the 2020 elections. Any sanctions China imposes because of the arms sale will probably be folded into future trade negotiations with Washington.

Iran-US nuclear deal revival efforts will face hurdles

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Medical Supplies ◽  
President Elect ◽  
National Security Adviser

Significance US President-elect Joe Biden supports the agreement, from which his predecessor Donald Trump withdrew, and has named as his national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who under former President Barack Obama began the secret outreach that fostered the JCPOA. Impacts Biden will immediately lower the temperature by facilitating trade in medical supplies to fight COVID-19. An end to the ‘Muslim ban’ will likely mean Iranian citizens can again travel to the United States, pandemic permitting. Iran may halt or slow steps that violate JCPOA limits, such as the installation of advanced centrifuges.

Mulled US nuclear posture shift would lack credibility

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Arms Control ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nuclear Arsenal ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nuclear Attack ◽  
And Shifts

Subject Potential US adoption of a 'no first use' nuclear weapons policy. Significance The administration of US President Barack Obama is reportedly considering the adoption of a 'no first use' nuclear weapons posture in his final months in office. A no first use policy would involve the United States declaring that it would only use its nuclear arsenal in response to a nuclear attack, never as a preliminary move in escalating tensions. This shift would be a significant departure from Washington's earlier posture, which maintained ambiguity as to whether nuclear weapons would be used in a hypothetical conventional attack on the United States or its allies. Impacts Arsenal upgrades and shifts in doctrine favouring tactical nuclear weapons would counteract the benefits of a restrained declaratory policy. Technological breakthroughs with hypersonic missiles are likely to undermine existing legal and diplomatic arms control arrangements. Obama may take up the pursuit of nuclear arms reductions with an ex-president's public profile. Eastern NATO allies will react strongly against any hint that their security does not fall under the US nuclear umbrella.

Next US president will confront nuclear disorder

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Presidential Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nuclear Policy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nuclear Response

Significance As Barack Obama eyes the January 2017 presidential transition, Washington's decades-long goal of a stable global nuclear order appears to be under threat from multiple quarters. Obama was mulling a US nuclear posture shift in August, whereby he would declare that the United States would only launch its nuclear deterrent in response to a nuclear strike by an adversary, ruling out a nuclear response to a conventional attack on US or allied forces. Impacts Deviation by Washington from support of disarmament and existing legal instruments could strain ties with some US allies. Trump's unorthodox positions on nuclear policy will promote defections by national security Republicans to Clinton's camp. A candidate's campaign trail rhetoric is likely to influence the credibility of the US nuclear deterrent once in office.

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