Russia's grand development plan goes ahead amid delays

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Development Programme ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Support ◽  
Total Government Expenditure

Significance The budget allocates substantial funds to the National Projects, a sweeping development programme unveiled in 2018 and rescheduled in July this year. Despite the renewed focus on the projects, total government expenditure in 2021 will be less than this year, when additional funds were made available to combat COVID-19 impacts. Impacts The prime minister is serious about leaner government, but cutting public sector jobs has historically been a difficult task in Russia. As federal government debt rises to its highest level since the early 2000s, there will be limited space for fiscal support for the economy. As the budget deficit expands, the share of expenditure used to service government debt is projected nearly to double from 2019.

Moldovan government will prioritise Western assistance

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Governance System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
The Creation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance The government is headed by Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita, a leading PAS figure and former finance minister. This completes the creation of a strong functioning governance system under President Maia Sandu and her PAS allies. Impacts The budget deficit will encourage the government to accept conditions set by the IMF and EU. Unprecedented political synergies should foster swift, more cohesive reforms. A comprehensive campaign against corruption will be disruptive for the public sector. Finding competent, uncorrupt people to take senior positions and staff institutions will be a challenge.

Politics set to slow Pakistan's divestment drive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Core Condition

Subject Pakistan's divestment drive. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government describes divestment of public sector enterprises (PSEs), involving 69 firms, as an essential part of its 2013-18 economic reform agenda. Progress thus far is limited, but the government faces rising pressure from the IMF, which made divestment a core condition of its 6.6-billion-dollar, three-year loan in September 2013. Impacts Another government led by Sharif would continue gradual divestments after 2018. Since PSEs are an important vector for distributing political patronage, structural reforms will face stiff resistance. Divestment of profitable PSEs defeats the purpose of the exercise, but the government will use them for a short-term cash boost.

Prospects for India in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Sector Banks ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for India in 2018. Significance India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has responded to the recent economic slowdown by drawing up plans to recapitalise public sector banks (PSBs) and invest in infrastructure. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also under pressure to create jobs. The government will be expected to deliver on its promises with elections due in around 18 months’ time.

Corruption to dominate Mexican 2018 election campaigns

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Institutional Revolutionary Party ◽  
Revolutionary Party

Subject Corruption and the election. Significance Former Tamaulipas Governor Eugenio Hernandez Flores (2005-10) was arrested on October 6, on suspicion of corruption. He is the latest in a string of former governors -- mostly of the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) -- to be detained. Public indignation at corruption has increased since September 4, when Animal Politico published the findings of an investigation suggesting that in 2013 and 2014 the federal government embezzled more than 7.6 billion pesos (406 million dollars). Sensitivities about this issue have led to mounting concern regarding the potential misuse of funds donated in the aftermath of September's earthquakes. Impacts Congress’s focus on 2018 budget talks will hinder progress on implementing the National Anti-Corruption system. Public sector corruption will not be significantly reduced under the current administration. Reports of misuse of donations following the earthquakes could trigger public unrest.

Canada faces federal-provincial gridlock on policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
New Right ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Carbon Taxes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Border Trade ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Canadian provincial and federal politicial dynamics. Significance As Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s term gets underway, Quebec is beginning its election campaign, running to October 1; the centre-right Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) will likely perform well. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces a fractious final year, as relations worsen between the Liberal federal government and various new right-wing provincial governments. Leading issues are migration, carbon taxes, cross-border trade and right-wing provincial governments’ socially conservative and fiscally austere agendas. Impacts Failed NAFTA renegotiations would hurt Trudeau’s administration before 2019 and necessitate further post-2019 negotiations. Right-wing provincial premiers will still cooperate with Trudeau to mitigate the effect of US trade tariffs on Canada. Currently, Trudeau and the Liberals are likely to win in 2019, but opposition parties will gain votes.

Egyptian wage rises will increase economic disparities

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Informal Economy ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Sector Employees ◽  
The Government ◽  
Poverty Levels

Subject Planned pay increases in Egypt. Significance President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi in late March announced rises to the minimum wage, pensions and bonuses, which will be effective from July. This is intended to offset the inflationary effects of the 2016 currency devaluation, as well as austerity measures undertaken by the government in compliance with the terms of a 12-billion-dollar IMF loan. The wage reforms, however, target formal and public-sector employees and offer no benefit to more than 50% of the workforce employed in the informal economy. At the same time, the ambitious fiscal reform programme that Cairo has pursued over the past three years has increased poverty levels. Impacts Raising the minimum wage will in turn reduce spending on social protection programmes. Wage reforms will stimulate consumer spending and boost economic growth. The rising minimum wage will increase operating costs for small firms, which may evade paying the legal minimum through informal employment. Despite being intended to counter price rises, the changes risk fuelling cost-push inflation. Planned public sector pay rises risk increasing the budget deficit.

Malaysia will struggle to foster economic growth

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Management ◽  
Finance Minister

Subject Malaysia's 2019 budget. Significance Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng’s 314.5-billion-ringgit (75-billion-dollar) budget for 2019, tabled earlier this month, will likely be approved in parliament before year-end. The first budget under Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad anticipates a budget deficit of 3.4% of GDP. Shortly after coming to power this May, Mahathir said he would give way to Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition partner Anwar Ibrahim within two years. Impacts The PH’s fiscal management will bolster confidence among foreign investors and credit ratings agencies. The lack of budget handouts to rural Malay constituencies could weaken political support for the PH in the short term. Government borrowing will likely become more expensive through 2019. The digital economy tax introduced in the budget will come into effect in 2020. Corruption investigations into missing revenues could result in further legal charges against members of the former government.

Nigeria finance bill will modestly increase revenue

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
State Level ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Limited Impact ◽  
The Public ◽  
Consumption Taxes

Significance The bill aims to expand the accruable revenue for the federal government, crucial for meeting the government’s 2022 fiscal targets. In particular it looks to close existing tax loopholes rather than raising consumption taxes which could inhibit economic growth. Impacts Increased taxes will only have a limited impact on consumer spending and inflation. The bill will not appreciably increase state-level revenues. Broader institutional reforms in the public sector are unlikely due to powerful patronage networks.

Prospects for Canada in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Federal Level ◽  
Vaccination Rates

Subject Prospects for Canada in 2022. Significance With COVID-19 receding and his third term in office confirmed, Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau looks likely to hold a steady course in 2022 but may prioritise climate issues and adjust aspects of foreign policy. Vaccination rates are generally high and Canada is emerging from the pandemic with continuity at the federal level and a recovering economy despite high levels of personal and government debt.

Inflation and deficits may upset Hungary’s economy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Roller Coaster ◽  
Average Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
The One ◽  
Families With Children ◽  
The Eu

Significance Hungary’s inflation rate was the EU’s highest in spring 2021. Spending promises and tax cuts ahead of elections due by spring 2022 are widening the budget deficit. Prime Minister Viktor Orban has promised from early 2022 a total tax rebate for families with children, up to the average income tax paid in 2021. Impacts Economic output will reach its 2019 pre-crisis level by the end of this year. The forint-euro exchange rate will go on a roller-coaster ride in coming months, the economic rebound on the one hand boosting appreciation. On the other hand, intensified conflicts between the EU and the Hungarian government will increase pressures towards depreciation. Perceptions of the country’s economic situation could play a role in the outcome of next year’s elections.

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