Moldovan government will prioritise Western assistance

Significance The government is headed by Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita, a leading PAS figure and former finance minister. This completes the creation of a strong functioning governance system under President Maia Sandu and her PAS allies. Impacts The budget deficit will encourage the government to accept conditions set by the IMF and EU. Unprecedented political synergies should foster swift, more cohesive reforms. A comprehensive campaign against corruption will be disruptive for the public sector. Finding competent, uncorrupt people to take senior positions and staff institutions will be a challenge.

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 527-544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabiu Abdullahi ◽  
Noorhayati Mansor

Purpose Detecting and preventing fraud are challenging and risky tasks, especially in a fast developing economy such as Nigeria. The efforts become crucial in the government sectors, as they involve public’s trust and resources. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationships between the fraud incidence and the elements of fraud triangle theory (FTT) with the aim of combating current fraud outrages in the Nigerian public sector. Design/methodology/approach A survey was conducted and 302 questionnaires were distributed to the staff of the departments of accounting, internal auditing and investigation of ten selected ministries, departments and agencies of Kano State, Nigeria. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to analyze the data. Findings The study reveals a significant relationship between three elements of FTT and fraud incidences in the Nigerian public sectors (p-value < 0.001 for pressure and opportunity and p-value = 0.024 for rationalization). Practical implications The findings of the study are useful for forensic accountants and the Nigerian anti-graft bodies to enhance existing control mechanisms in fraud prevention initiatives. The research also contributes to bridge the gap in academic theory and empirical study related to FTT. Social implications Fraud scandals can cause public’s frustration, damage the reputation and integrity of the ruling government and result in negative image of the public sector. Originality/value Accordingly, the study suggests a salary scale reform (SSR) in the Nigerian public sector and improvement in fringe benefits to increase employees’ standard of living. The study concludes with recommendations to enhance fraud awareness and training programs to the government employees.


Significance The government vows that freeports will represent “hubs of enterprise which will allow places to carry out business inside a country’s land border but where different customs rules apply”. The creation of freeports are a central component of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government to facilitate global trade and promote regional regeneration in the post-Brexit era. Impacts With Brexit, London will have more flexibility regarding the concessions it can offer businesses operating in freeports. The government vows to create freeports in the devolved regions but faces the difficult task of cooperating with the devolved governments. Some poorer regions will miss out on freeports, which could leave them even more deprived and stoke local resentment against London.


Subject Pakistan's divestment drive. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government describes divestment of public sector enterprises (PSEs), involving 69 firms, as an essential part of its 2013-18 economic reform agenda. Progress thus far is limited, but the government faces rising pressure from the IMF, which made divestment a core condition of its 6.6-billion-dollar, three-year loan in September 2013. Impacts Another government led by Sharif would continue gradual divestments after 2018. Since PSEs are an important vector for distributing political patronage, structural reforms will face stiff resistance. Divestment of profitable PSEs defeats the purpose of the exercise, but the government will use them for a short-term cash boost.


Significance The issue of media independence has become a fraught one under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration, with perceptions rising among journalists and the public that the government is subjecting the media to political pressure. Critics of the administration speak of censorship and threats to freedom of expression. Japan's ranking in the World Press Freedom Index has fallen from 22nd in 2011-12, before Abe took office, to 61st in 2015. Impacts The government seems likely to try to marginalise the criticisms of constitutional scholars, like it marginalises its other critics. International media as well as domestic journalists are likely to feel some pressure from the authorities. In the near term, the issue is unlikely to destabilise the government, or derail passage of security legislation.


Significance Earlier this month, the government passed a bill allowing for central bank financing of the budget deficit, contravening a core requirement in its agreement with the Fund. Earlier breaches led to the fourth tranche of the bailout (worth 114 million dollars) being withheld. Impacts Other donors will withhold aid disbursements until the impasse between Accra and the IMF is resolved. The electricity crisis will continue to undermine manufacturing activity, contributing to disappointing GDP growth. Ivory Coast's pro-business reforms mean it could attract investors deterred by Ghana's economic woes. Prolonged tensions with the IMF coupled with a deterioration its Ghana's fiscal metrics may drive a credit rating downgrade.


Subject Prospects for India in 2018. Significance India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has responded to the recent economic slowdown by drawing up plans to recapitalise public sector banks (PSBs) and invest in infrastructure. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also under pressure to create jobs. The government will be expected to deliver on its promises with elections due in around 18 months’ time.


Subject Planned pay increases in Egypt. Significance President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi in late March announced rises to the minimum wage, pensions and bonuses, which will be effective from July. This is intended to offset the inflationary effects of the 2016 currency devaluation, as well as austerity measures undertaken by the government in compliance with the terms of a 12-billion-dollar IMF loan. The wage reforms, however, target formal and public-sector employees and offer no benefit to more than 50% of the workforce employed in the informal economy. At the same time, the ambitious fiscal reform programme that Cairo has pursued over the past three years has increased poverty levels. Impacts Raising the minimum wage will in turn reduce spending on social protection programmes. Wage reforms will stimulate consumer spending and boost economic growth. The rising minimum wage will increase operating costs for small firms, which may evade paying the legal minimum through informal employment. Despite being intended to counter price rises, the changes risk fuelling cost-push inflation. Planned public sector pay rises risk increasing the budget deficit.


Significance That comes as the country’s own parliament prepares to vote on the 2020 fiscal bill before the end of the year. Amman is currently in the last year of a 723-million-dollar IMF credit line, which required it to cut debt levels. The budget is intended to stimulate growth and stave off further protests, while simultaneously persuading the IMF to extend its credit line for another three years during upcoming talks in January. Impacts There will be closer cooperation between the government and parliament over managing the economy. Signs of unrest and public discontent over economic reforms will ease, notably if a tax evasion crackdown features on social media. Razzaz will survive another year as prime minister, having already served 18 months, sending a positive signal to the IMF and investors. King Abdullah and Queen Rania will come under less public scrutiny and distance themselves further from day-to-day politics.


Significance On October 23, President Reuven Rivlin passed on the task of forming the government to Benny Gantz, leader of the centrist Blue and White alliance, after incumbent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu failed. Neither the centre-left bloc nor the bloc of religious and right-wing parties (led by Netanyahu's Likud) has a majority without Yisrael Beiteinu, but so far Gantz and Netanyahu have failed to find an acceptable compromise despite pressure from Lieberman and Rivlin to form a unity administration. Meanwhile, Netanyahu himself faces an impending indictment on corruption charges. Impacts Consecutive rounds of elections will create a strain on the public finances. Netanyahu will refuse any power rotation deal where he is not given the premiership first. Another election, especially if coupled with an indictment, will accelerate a trend of public fatigue with Netanyahu.


Subject Chad's political and economic outlook. Significance President Idris Deby came to power in a 1990 military takeover and has now ruled the country for 27 years. In an election in April, Deby won a new five-year term as president. However, there is considerable resentment among opposition politicians and the public about his lengthening rule. In October, the government introduced new austerity measures, citing the need to reduce the budget deficit. This has provoked new strikes and protests. Impacts The government will maintain its combative approach to foreign oil companies. Low-level insecurity will persist in the Lake Chad border region. Chad will remain near the bottom of international development indices in 2017.


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