Domestic pressures will affect UK trade relations

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Other ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Liberal Trade ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Regulatory Landscape

Significance Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government signalled that London will pursue a proactive, liberal trade policy globally. However, the capacity to pursue such a policy could be reduced by domestic political pressure. Impacts The United Kingdom’s new post-Brexit immigration regime should attract workers from non-EU countries, in particular from India. Negotiating several trade deals in tandem will stretch UK trade policy resources and ability to compromise with the other side. Rising protectionism and geopolitical rivalry will undermine UK efforts to influence the regulatory landscape abroad.

Economic demise set to continue, but farming is a hope

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Political Implications ◽  
External Demand ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The hryvnia crisis, which has seen the currency's value plummet, has deepened. However, as reported by Reuters, the NBU decision was suddenly reversed following heavy criticism from Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who said the move was bad for the economy. Overall, Ukraine's economy continues to be weak and vulnerable to shocks. The local economy had already been struggling for most of 2012-13, owing largely to weak external demand and deteriorating trade relations with Russia. However, the political turmoil that the country found itself in soon after the February 2014 change of power exacerbated these troubles significantly. Impacts Continued economic decline will prompt the government to take new unpopular belt-tightening measures in order to get international aid. Rapid economic reforms increase the risk of mass social discontent with far-reaching political implications. Should key merchandise exports fall further, producers could face an effective loss of their main markets.

Political pressure mounts on Japanese media

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Press Freedom ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Media ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government

Significance The issue of media independence has become a fraught one under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration, with perceptions rising among journalists and the public that the government is subjecting the media to political pressure. Critics of the administration speak of censorship and threats to freedom of expression. Japan's ranking in the World Press Freedom Index has fallen from 22nd in 2011-12, before Abe took office, to 61st in 2015. Impacts The government seems likely to try to marginalise the criticisms of constitutional scholars, like it marginalises its other critics. International media as well as domestic journalists are likely to feel some pressure from the authorities. In the near term, the issue is unlikely to destabilise the government, or derail passage of security legislation.

Israeli-Lebanese offshore gas race may raise tensions

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil And Gas Exploration ◽  
Offshore Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Uncertainties ◽  
Offshore Oil

Significance The bids came from Greece’s Energean, an existing investor, and a consortium of Indian firms; there was little wider international interest. Neighbouring Lebanon’s first offshore oil and gas exploration round, which closed on October 12, was similarly disappointing, with just two bids received from one consortium consisting of France’s Total, Italy’s Eni and Russia’s Novatek. Impacts Political uncertainties following the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri could slow hydrocarbons exploration. The Lebanese government will be under domestic political pressure from NGOs to ensure transparency in its award of exploration licences. Israel will launch further bid rounds for the remaining blocks, but these are unlikely to produce a different result.

Bulgaria will push for Western Balkans’ EU integration

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
Commission President ◽  
Positive Light ◽  
The Eu

Subject Bulgaria’s assumption of the EU presidency. Significance European Council President Donald Tusk and Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker used the official inauguration of Bulgaria’s six-month stint in the EU presidency to demonstrate support for Bulgaria and its Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, and thus deflect widespread scepticism and criticism of Bulgaria’s EU trajectory since accession in 2007. Their hosts responded by underlining their unflinching support for EU institutions and initiatives (notably on migration quotas), and playing up Bulgaria’s stabilising role regarding the Western Balkans and Turkey. Impacts During its EU presidency, Bulgaria’s establishment will be most attentive to criticism coming from EU institutions and leading EU countries. The presidency will focus on showing Bulgaria in a positive light, while avoiding drawing attention to its reform deficit. Bulgaria's influence over problem areas and countries is limited and contingent on factors mostly beyond its control.

Incoherent US trade plans may get nastier not clearer

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
International Financial Institutions ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Trade Policy ◽  
Trade Sanctions ◽  
Trade Deals

Subject US trade policy. Significance During his election campaign, Donald Trump slammed decades of US policy and pledged to secure better trade deals, putting 'America First'. Upon taking office, Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), but six months on, his trade agenda remains disjointed. Impacts Trump could use executive powers in a more sweeping fashion if he cannot deliver trade changes via legislation. Washington will expand secondary trade sanctions on firms and people that deal with North Korea, most of which are Chinese. Securing 'big-ticket' export deals will be a means for Trump to deliver manufacturing jobs to his political heartland. US opposition to funding and reforms of international financial institutions could reduce the momentum behind global cooperation.

Brexit’s impact on the City of London will vary

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Single Market ◽  
Services Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
City Of London ◽  
The City

Significance The alternative to passporting after Brexit is ‘equivalence’, which would allow EU and UK firms access each other’s financial markets. However, such a regime does have the same sectoral coverage as passporting and is vulnerable to revocation. Impacts New free trade deals with non-EU countries will not substitute for the EU’s single market in terms of financial services coverage. While the strength of other EU financial centres will grow, London has an infrastructure that is difficult to replicate. Failure to reach an agreement on UK-EU financial services trade could see many firms unable to serve EU clients from London.

Thailand’s Prayut may keep power in a civilian regime

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
National Council ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thailand's long-delayed election. Significance More than 40 new political parties have been registered in Thailand since March 2, and established parties will be allowed to begin registering members on April 1, as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) begin a process of preparing for a long-delayed general election. The 2017 constitution initiated by the NCPO allows the (to be re-established) House of Representatives to select an ‘outsider’ as prime minister if it is unable to decide on a party-affiliated figure. Impacts Persistent election delays will not affect Thailand’s current economic recovery. Despite mounting political pressure on the government to commit to a poll, anti-government protests will not grow. Improving relations with the United States could insulate the government from EU pressure on delayed elections.

Re-elected Abe will focus on constitution

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Liberal Democratic Party ◽  
The Other ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Japanese History ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Liberal Democratic

Subject The implications of Shinzo Abe's re-election for another term as party leader. Significance Shinzo Abe’s re-election to the post of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president on September 20 makes it likely that he will continue to serve as prime minister until September 2021. In November 2019 he will become the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese history. Impacts Promotions to the new cabinet will give indications of who might run for party leader next time round. If Washington imposes tariffs, Japan will probably retaliate. Japan will try to strengthen relations with the other two members of the ‘Quad’ (India and Australia).

Political pressure may mount on Canada’s Trudeau

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Debate ◽  
Oil Pipelines ◽  
Trade Deals

Significance As Canada enters the second half of Trudeau’s government, with a federal election due in October 2019, the Liberal Party’s prospects of a second term in office are fair to good. Even so, there is popular fatigue with Trudeau’s celebrity style, a national debate is simmering over oil pipelines and Canada’s trade outlook is uncertain. Impacts Right-wing provincial successes will bring austerity measures and possible labour protests. Escalating intra-federal sanctions, including oil blockades, are likely. New Canadian trade deals with China, India or a post-Brexit United Kingdom will be hampered by incompetent Liberal diplomacy.

Slovak centre-right must unite to win again in 2020

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Support ◽  
The Other ◽  
Far Right ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Central European ◽  
Nationalist Government ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject The government’s poor showing in regional elections. Significance Elections in Slovakia’s eight regions on November 4 led to a surprise defeat for Prime Minister Robert Fico’s Direction-Social Democracy (Smer-SD) party, whose candidates lost four of the six governorships they previously held. A coalition of opposition centre-right parties, which normally only win the governorship in the most prosperous region, Bratislava, was victorious in five of the eight regions. This is the strongest indication yet that the current left-nationalist government could be replaced by such a coalition at the next parliamentary elections due in spring 2020. Impacts The current governing coalition will want to avoid early elections and serve a full four-year term until March 2020. Fico is likely to continue promoting generous social policies to increase his political support. With the defeat of the far-right, Slovakia will continue to diverge from the other Central European states. The weakening of Smer-SD and lack of trust shown by voters leaves considerable scope for new parties to succeed in future elections.

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