Mozambique's FRELIMO faces military intervention push

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Alliances ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Political Issue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Succession Process

Significance Oil and gas major Total has suspended work on its nearby liquefied natural gas (LNG) site, while a humanitarian crisis has worsened. Pressure for an external military intervention has increased dramatically, notably from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), but Mozambique’s ruling FRELIMO remains reluctant. Impacts A delay to planned LNG projects, coupled with ongoing insecurity, mean economic growth will remain subdued through the medium term. Delays to FRELIMO’s succession process to replace President Filipe Nyusi will become an increasingly explosive political issue. An outside military intervention would force FRELIMO to re-align its regional and international strategic alliances in the short term.

Ties with Hamas could help Egypt in Sinai

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Border Crossing ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Sector

Significance The fact that the meeting was held in Egypt, rather than the usual meeting place of Qatar, signals a shift in Hamas-Cairo relations. Impacts In the short term, any expanded cooperation could see a conflagration in the Sinai as insurgents fear encirclement. In the medium term, genuine Egyptian-Hamas rapprochement should go some way towards containing the insurgency. A stable Sinai could help Egypt’s foundering tourism sector. An open Rafah border crossing could see reconstruction start in earnest in Gaza and head off a looming humanitarian crisis.

Oil will drive record Guyana growth again in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
National Development ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Government ◽  
Wage Increases ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Significance As in 2020 and 2021, this projected growth will be driven by the ongoing expansion of the oil and gas sector, and related investment and state revenues. These rising revenues will support the government’s ambitious national development plans, which include both increased social and infrastructure spending. Impacts The government will prioritise enhancing the oil and gas investment framework. Investment into joint oil and gas infrastructure with Suriname will benefit the growing oil industry in both countries. The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a rise in inflation, leading to further calls for wage increases. In the medium term, strong growth in the oil and gas sector could lead to increased climate change activism in the country.

Africa's 'oil price winners' face mixed prospects

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Political Space ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Africa's oil price winners. Significance Despite traditionally being winners during periods of oil price decline, the medium-term outlook is mixed for sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) oil importing countries -- reflected in the IMF's recent downgrade of its SSA outlook from 5.75% to 4.9%. Short-term gains reduce the fuel import bill, but uncertainty looms over energy investments in eastern African, while idiosyncratic risks cloud the outlook for southern Africa. While oil exporters may also reap some benefits, much will depend on the degree of oil dependency, political space to make the necessary policy retrenchments, and the extent of government financial buffers. Impacts If sustained, low oil prices could provoke civil unrest, rather than reforms, in oil exporting countries. Most oil exporters will struggle to maintain macroeconomic stability if oil remains low for more than a year. However, economic diversification to some degree helps to shield the region from sharp global slowdowns.

Mozambique juggles new interests and old problems

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Traditional Agriculture ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Debt Stress ◽  
Fiscal Risks

Subject Mozambique's new government. Significance President Filipe Nyusi on January 17 unveiled his first cabinet. The line-up marks a break with the administration of former President Armando Guebuza, but balances competing factions within the ruling FRELIMO party. The new government's main focus will be to turn offshore natural gas discoveries into liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Declines in FRELIMO's electoral support indicate pressure to demonstrate more inclusive benefits than has been the case with previous mega-projects. Impacts Lower prices for traditional (agriculture) and megaproject exports (coal, aluminium) will continue; last year exports fell by 8.4%. With mining under stress, companies may delay production expansion planned to take place after the completion of the Nacala railway. For the short term, fiscal risks are greater than debt stress -- particular given 2014 election-related spending.

Intervention in The Gambia may prove unique

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Intervention ◽  
West African ◽  
The Gambia ◽  
Truth Commission ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Assistance ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Security Guarantees

Significance For over a month, Jammeh rebuffed diplomatic efforts by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to accept Adama Barrow's victory in the December 1 presidential poll. An ECOWAS military intervention into The Gambia -- accompanied by last-minute diplomatic efforts and purported financial and security guarantees -- finally forced Jammeh to accept defeat. Impacts A truth commission offering amnesty for military officials and the outgoing government could prompt discord within the new ruling alliance. Military restructuring will be a priority for Barrow's government. International assistance will likely flow in support of the new president. The Gambia's tourism sector -- which makes up nearly 20% of the country's GDP -- will struggle to recover in the short-term. The ECOWAS intervention could prove unpopular among members' domestic constituencies if a lengthy, costly mission emerges.

New tax law will help US energy sector

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Tax Law ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Drilling ◽  
Oil And Gas Exploration ◽  
The Us ◽  
Tax Cuts

Subject Oil drilling in Alaska and the energy sector under the new US tax laws. Significance Speaking to reporters on January 16, Senator Lisa Murkowski (Republican, Alaska), said that she wants to seek a new bill that would promote further environmental protections in what is known as the 1002 Area. The 1002 Area is in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and was opened for oil and gas exploration and drilling when President Donald Trump signed into law the Republicans’ tax reform bill on December 22 last year. Impacts Shareholders in refiners could see strong returns as the tax cut windfall is funnelled into higher dividends and share buybacks. If the tax cuts spur stronger short-term economic growth, US oil demand should accelerate, a bullish indicator for oil prices. If the tax cuts increase the US budget deficit, subsidies for the energy sector could be revisited.

Zimbabwe's military will entrench its influence

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Structural Constraints ◽  
Tight Control ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Electronic Money ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Key Sectors ◽  
Democratic Change ◽  
Robert Mugabe

Significance Since coming to power following November's military intervention and ouster of former President Robert Mugabe, Mnangagwa and his government have promised an overhaul of the economy, including reversing controversial indigenisation policies. However, unresolved structural constraints in key sectors, including the military’s ongoing influence, limit the potential for success. Impacts The opposition is likely to fracture further as a succession struggle takes hold within the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T). The military's influence over agricultural policy will allow tight control and repression of the rural electorate ahead of polls. A de-dollarisation of the economy is unlikely in the short term; a mix of US dollars, bond notes and electronic money will still be used.

Petroleum investors could cut their losses in Yemen

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Solar Panels ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Remote Areas ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Subject Yemeni oil production. Significance The oil and gas sector -- which was in any case in long-term decline, owing to a lack of investment -- suffered serious disruption after civil war broke out in March 2015, with oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and refining facilities closed, and ports blockaded to prevent delivery of oil products. The internationally recognised government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi has renewed efforts to encourage a recovery in oil production since late 2016, but these are hampered by the civil war and lawlessness in remote areas. Impacts Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be the main sources of oil imports, probably on concessional terms. Hydrocarbon exports will not provide sufficient finance for post-conflict reconstruction. Exports of LNG are unlikely to restart before 2020 at the earliest. A crisis of power provision will expand the market for small solar panels.

Argentine economic shifts will not bring rapid relief

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Rapid Improvement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Export Taxes ◽  
Substantial Progress ◽  
Rapid Relief

Significance In his first month in office, President Mauricio Macri made substantial progress in removing controls implemented by the former administration. The new government liberalised the foreign exchange market, increasingly constrained over the last four years, and international trade, with the lifting of most export taxes and the removal of controversial non-automatic import licences. Impacts Policy changes will not bring rapid improvement, with little recovery this year or next. This will raise social conflict in the short term, putting governability at risk. Medium-term price stabilisation, in the framework of a managed float and an inflation target regime, may drive a rebound.

India’s energy demands will keep coal fires burning

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Power Plants ◽  
Thermal Power ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indian Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Demands ◽  
Coal Fires ◽  
Vehicle Fleet

Subject India's short-term need for coal despite long-term plan for renewables. Significance Reports indicate that NTPC, the former National Thermal Power Corporation, India’s largest state-run electricity producer, is planning to invest 10 billion dollars over a five-year period in three new coal-fired power plants. The proposal is striking in the light of India’s commitment to renewable energy and its stance on climate change. Impacts India’s plans to shift its vehicle fleet to electricity by 2030 may bring increased coal use in the long term. The Indian government may face a backlash from the urban electorate if it fails to curb air pollution from coal burning. Liquefied natural gas imports may increase in the short term if underused gas-fired power plants are brought online.

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