Libya unity deal will produce patchy stability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
National Congress ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
To Come

Significance The deal aims to create a 'Government of National Accord' to resolve the rivalry between the two competing parliaments, the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR). Although the HoR signed the deal, the GNC refused to accept it. Yet several other important GNC allies signed the agreement. This skirted outright failure of the UN peace process, but gives the mooted unity government a very shaky basis on which to proceed. Impacts Fissures within the Muslim Brotherhood and the GNC will likely dilute their influence in Libya. The UN Security Council will increase pressure on rejectionists to come into the fold or face sanctions and isolation. The deal may well result in peaceful, functioning areas, such as Misrata, keen to attract investment. However, other areas, such as Benghazi, will likely continue to see violence, which would cloud prospects for investment in stable areas.

Worsening security impels renewed Mali peace efforts

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Council ◽  
Northern Areas ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Implementation Progress ◽  
Government Security

Subject Peace implementation progress. Significance President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita on July 8 appointed Nina Walet Intalou, a prominent northern Tuareg nationalist, as a minister in his latest cabinet reshuffle. Keita is trying to restore momentum to the peace process, which is stalling. This comes shortly after the UN Security Council (UNSC) authorised an increase of more than 2,500 troops for its peacekeeping force in Mali on June 30. Impacts Jihadists will continue to attack UN and government security forces. International partners will press Bamako to hold regional council elections and reinforce its services in northern areas outside Kidal. There will be renewed efforts to bring stability in central Mali, where local community disputes and army abuses have fuelled violence.

Assassination threatens to destabilise Haiti further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.

Russia may entrench its influence in CAR

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Security Council ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Sites ◽  
Un Security Council

Significance Russia on June 28 rejected as “lies” similar allegations by the United States, United Kingdom and France at the UN Security Council. The exchanges come against the backdrop of rising diplomatic tensions between Russia and France in CAR. Impacts Touadera’s ongoing offensive against rebel forces threatens to deliver a fatal blow to the peace deal he struck with them in 2019. Expanding Russian control over key mining sites could be a persistent source of frictions absent sophisticated local arrangements. Human rights concerns will deter some African leaders from engaging with Russia, but not all.

scholarly journals Frictional interactions on Women, Peace and Security in Mali

2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (4) ◽  
pp. 463-483
Author(s):  
Jenny Lorentzen
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
International Community ◽  
Feedback Loops ◽  
Security Council Resolution ◽  
Women's Participation ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Peace And Security ◽  
Local Actors ◽  
The Way

AbstractMore than 20 years after the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security, the international community is concerned with taking stock of its implementation in countries undergoing transitions from war to peace. This article contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics involved in implementing the Women, Peace and Security agenda through a focus on the frictional interactions that take place between different actors promoting women's participation in the peace process in Mali. Based on extensive fieldwork in Bamako between 2017 and 2019, it analyses interactions between different international and local actors in the Malian peace process through a discussion of vertical (between international and local actors) and horizontal (between local actors) friction. It finds that the way different actors respond to friction shapes relationships and impacts norm trajectories by triggering feedback loops, which in turn trigger new responses and outcomes.

Ruling Islamists set to win Morocco local elections

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Service ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Working Relationship ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Royal Court ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Political Backlash

Significance King Mohammed VI has committed forces to the Saudi-led coalition conducing operations in Yemen to reinforce the alliance with Gulf states. It may be because of these ties that Morocco's Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD) survived the regional political backlash against the Muslim Brotherhood -- with which the PJD has some parallels, but no formal links. Prime Minister and PJD leader Abdelilah Benkirane has developed a close working relationship with King Mohammed and the royal court. With the economy performing well, Benkirane's chances of prolonging his mandate look promising. Impacts Local elections will signal the level of popular support for the PJD. If Benkirane retains the premiership post-2016, he may seek a more prominent role for the PJD -- in cabinet and the civil service. This could bring him into conflict with the king.

Unity deal reflects Western goals, not Libyan accord

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Congress

Significance The deal aims to create a Government of National Accord (GNA) to end the political crisis between the internationally recognised House of Representatives (HoR) based in Tobruk and the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC). However, there is strong opposition to the deal, not least from the presidents of the rival legislatures. Impacts The GNA will need to address concerns that it will be dominated by western Libyans, especially Misratans. Left unaddressed, this could open the door for renewed calls of autonomy or secessionism from the eastern Cyrenaica province. None of the Libyan factions will prioritise fighting ISG, but they will defend their territories.

Iran gas can diversify European supplies in long term

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
To Come

Significance The deal reached between Iran and the P5+1 negotiating group (UN Security Council permanent members plus Germany) on July 14 promises to end most sanctions on the country, in return for suspension and monitoring of its nuclear programme. If ratified by all parties, it will create opportunities for an expansion of Iran's gas production and exports. Iran is the holder of the world's largest gas reserves, according to BP estimates. It is also the third-largest producer (after the United States and Russia, and probably having overtaken Qatar during 2015), and the fourth-largest consumer. Impacts Iran could increase gas exports by advancing projects stalled by sanctions, although most of these will take some years to come to fruition. Iran would seek to attract foreign investment into its gas industry to increase production and exports in the longer term. If this occurs, Iran will compete with other gas exporters, particularly Russia, into the 2020s.

Syria may spur global rise in unilateral intervention

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Humanitarian Intervention ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Broad Interpretation ◽  
State Group ◽  
Syrian Conflict

Subject Syria and international norms of war. Significance The Syrian conflict has prompted intervention by a number of states, both directly and by proxy. The participation of all but one of the five UN Security Council permanent members (except China) in military operations in Syria raises questions over whether the norms of legal and ethical grounds for intervention have changed as a result of the conflict. Impacts Justifications will include broad interpretation of 'humanitarian intervention' to conceal real intentions. The UN will have less ability to assert itself when the leading powers choose to ignore, or interpret selectively, international standards. Collective international action against Islamic State group in Syria may build.

Loyalist parliament could still test Egypt's Sisi

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Big Business ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Stark Contrast ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Clear Majority

Significance This will be followed by a second round on November 22-23, with run-off votes after each round to decide seats with no clear majority. Impacts With pro-business figures expected to dominate, parliament is likely to support legislation encouraging foreign investment. The election could aggravate popular disaffection with a political process seen as serving the security state and big business. In a stark contrast to previous parliaments, the Muslim Brotherhood will have next to no representation in the legislature.

Qatar could become a low-profile mediator

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Low Profile ◽  
Bomb Attack ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood

Significance This followed Qatar's December 14 rejection of Egyptian charges that it had assisted the Islamist perpetrator of a bomb attack on a cathedral in Cairo. The accusation is the legacy of a pre-2013 era of activist foreign policy and support for the Muslim Brotherhood. Under pressure from Saudi Arabia and others, the country has since returned to the Gulf Arab fold, but relations with Egypt remain tense. Impacts Even if recovering energy prices ease the fiscal situation in 2017, foreign policy is likely to be cautious. The legacy of previous unsuccessful mediation efforts in Yemen could compromise Qatar’s role in conflict-resolution efforts. Qatar is not as strongly involved in Libya as before, but maintains low-profile ties with Tripolitanian, Islamist-leaning groups. Ties with Riyadh could strengthen further after a high-profile visit by King Salman on December 5.

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