Syria may spur global rise in unilateral intervention

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Humanitarian Intervention ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Broad Interpretation ◽  
State Group ◽  
Syrian Conflict

Subject Syria and international norms of war. Significance The Syrian conflict has prompted intervention by a number of states, both directly and by proxy. The participation of all but one of the five UN Security Council permanent members (except China) in military operations in Syria raises questions over whether the norms of legal and ethical grounds for intervention have changed as a result of the conflict. Impacts Justifications will include broad interpretation of 'humanitarian intervention' to conceal real intentions. The UN will have less ability to assert itself when the leading powers choose to ignore, or interpret selectively, international standards. Collective international action against Islamic State group in Syria may build.

Libya will fuel North Africa terrorism risk

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Africa ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terrorism Risk ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
Will Force ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Impact

Subject Effect of Libya on North Africa Significance The inability to produce a peace agreement in Libya and the prospect of a foreign intervention to counter the spread of Islamic State group (ISG) in the country raises questions on the impact this could have on Libya's North African neighbours. Impacts Military pressure on ISG in Libya will motivate the group to strike targets abroad to demonstrate its capabilities. ISG could use more sophisticated weapons against potential Western airstrikes and military operations. Insecurity in Libya will force its neighbours to maintain high levels of military spending at a time of lower government revenues. An influx of refugees into Tunisian and Algerian border areas could strain local resources.

Iran regional policy will bolster IRGC political power

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group

Significance Iran's armed forces have suffered a number of high-profile casualties in Syria and Iraq in recent weeks. General Mohammad Ali Allah-Dadi was killed in an Israeli airstrike inside Syria in January, while General Hamid Taqavi was killed by the Islamic State group (ISG) in Iraq in late December. Taqavi was the highest-ranking officer to be killed since the Iran-Iraq war ended in 1988. Both men were members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Iran's elite military force that conducts all of Tehran's military operations outside the country's borders. As rising instability threatens Iran's interests, the IRGC has stepped up its deployment across the region, raising the risk of military overstretch. Meanwhile, on the domestic front, the IRGC is at loggerheads with the government of President Hassan Rouhani as nuclear negotiations approach their next deadline. Impacts IRGC dominance in Tehran policy-making will prevent any wider rapprochement with Washington. Resolution to the Syrian civil war will require regional political agreement involving Iran. Tensions with Saudi Arabia are at risk of further escalation. Demands on the defence budget will increase, raising fiscal strain on government.

Syria diplomacy will make little headway

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Influence ◽  
State Group ◽  
Syrian Conflict

Significance As one of the insurgency's key external backers, Riyadh is seeking to create a united political front for the Syrian opposition ahead of proposed international talks in Vienna on ending Syria's civil war, due to begin by January 1. The Vienna process is the first serious international diplomatic effort to resolve the Syrian conflict following the failed Geneva talks in January 2014. Impacts The absence of powerful, hardline Islamist groups from the talks will limit the effectiveness of any agreement. As the war drags on, sectarian tensions and Sunni radicalisation around the region will increase. International efforts to destroy Islamic State group will fail so long as the civil war continues. The Vienna process will increase Russia's regional influence and Iran's diplomatic status.

Islamic State sets trends in militant social media use

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Crowd Sourcing ◽  
Interactive Communication ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Early Adopters ◽  
Software Applications ◽  
Use Of Social Media ◽  
State Group

Subject Analysis of the use of social media by jihadists. Significance Insurgent groups were early adopters of social media in the Middle East. The technology allows instant, interactive communication between people without geographical limits and enables mass dissemination of any visual, oral or written message. Initially, jihadists primarily used it for propaganda purposes, but the diffusion of mobile technology and software applications has meant they increasingly use it to reach out directly to potential recruits. More importantly, they use social media as a force multiplier in their military operations. The Islamic State group (ISG) has elevated the use of social media to a new level by combining the use of all these different functions. Impacts ISG will disseminate grim imagery and shocking acts of violence in order to sustain its momentum and project power. Private hacker groups, such as the Anonymous hackers collective, will increasingly track and disable jihadi accounts. Governments could use crowd-sourcing to aid counter-radicalisation efforts.

Malaysia security act could cause political friction

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
National Security ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
National Security Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group

Significance He was referring to the National Security Council Act (NSCA), which came into effect on August 1 after being passed in December 2015 without express royal assent. The government says the legislation is necessary to protect Malaysia amid increasing concerns over terrorism, particularly by Islamic State group (ISG), but critics argue that it gives the prime minister arbitrary powers that could be abused. Impacts The government will use the NSCA regardless of civil society criticisms, making protests possible. International perceptions that the NSCA is being abused would cause diplomatic trouble for Malaysia. The NSCA's utility could be dampened if political use continues to be made of Islam, as is likely.

Prospects for Syria and Iraq in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
State Group ◽  
Syrian Conflict ◽  
Political Backlash

Subject Prospects for Syria and Iraq in 2016. Significance Russia's direct military intervention in Syria and terrorist attacks by the Islamic State group (ISG) against Russian and French targets have sparked unprecedented diplomatic activity around the Syrian conflict, suggesting that a political solution could see the light in 2016. In Iraq, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's leadership faces a 'make-or-break' year as he seeks to handle the campaign against ISG, an economic crisis, and a political backlash against his reform programme.

Uganda-Congo offensive hints at gradual re-engagement

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
Political Upheaval ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
Military Engagement

Subject Ugandan military engagement in eastern Congo. Significance On December 22, Ugandan forces launched an attack into eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) targeting the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) armed group. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni claimed that the ADF -- an Islamist group of Ugandan origin but currently based in eastern DRC -- once again posed a direct threat to his nation and hinted that the Ugandan army was ready to play a wider role in military operations against the group. Impacts DRC’s ongoing political upheaval will both complicate, and be complicated by, insecurity in the east. Deep divisions within the Congolese army will further complicate the region’s already fragmented security landscape. The UN Security Council may face calls to expand or revise the UN peacekeeping mission’s mandate when this comes up for renewal in March.

Humanitarian Intervention

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Caplan
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Humanitarian Intervention ◽  
Responsibility To Protect ◽  
Real Effect ◽  
General Decline ◽  
Humanitarian Crises ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
The Way

States – Western ones, at least – have given increased weight to human rights and humanitarian norms as matters of international concern, with the authorization of legally binding enforcement measures to tackle humanitarian crises under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. These concerns were also developed outside the UN Security Council framework, following Tony Blair’s Chicago speech and the contemporaneous NATO action over Kosovo. This gave rise to international commissions and resulted, among other things, in the emergence of the ‘Responsibility to Protect’ (R2P) doctrine. The adoption of this doctrine coincided with a period in which there appeared to be a general decline in mass atrocities. Yet R2P had little real effect – it cannot be shown to have caused the fall in mass atrocities, only to have echoed it. Thus, the promise of R2P and an age of humanitarianism failed to emerge, even if the way was paved for future development.

Assassination threatens to destabilise Haiti further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.

Russia may entrench its influence in CAR

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Security Council ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Sites ◽  
Un Security Council

Significance Russia on June 28 rejected as “lies” similar allegations by the United States, United Kingdom and France at the UN Security Council. The exchanges come against the backdrop of rising diplomatic tensions between Russia and France in CAR. Impacts Touadera’s ongoing offensive against rebel forces threatens to deliver a fatal blow to the peace deal he struck with them in 2019. Expanding Russian control over key mining sites could be a persistent source of frictions absent sophisticated local arrangements. Human rights concerns will deter some African leaders from engaging with Russia, but not all.

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