Informality will block poverty reduction in Argentina

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Tax Burden ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Prospects

Significance The informal sector, accounting for some 25% of real output and nearly half the workforce, undermines development prospects. A high tax burden and macroeconomic instability push many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) into the informal sectors, while pandemic-related lockdowns accelerated the rising trend for informal, small entrepreneurs to offer their products on social media. Impacts Though medium-term prospects for comprehensive reforms are minimal, more modest sectoral reforms may advance. Poor educational attainment will continue to undermine many workers’ prospects for overcoming poverty and informality. Informality levels highlight the need for pension reform, given shortfalls in the pay-as-you-go system and the numbers lacking a pension.

Deficit will rise absent labour reform in Argentina

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Social Security Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
Fiscal Imbalance

Subject The outlook for pension reform. Significance In 2016 Congress passed Law 27.260, which established measures to improve pensioners’ welfare, and set a three-year deadline to create a new pension system, which would be universal, comprehensive and sustainable, and maintain the current system’s pay-as-you-go feature. The pensions deficit represents a significant portion of the fiscal imbalance, so any policy to improve fiscal sustainability will require social security reform. However, the current pension system is considered unfair by most pensioners and active workers. Impacts The social security reform will face opposition in Congress and resistance from public opinion. A strong result for the new Unidad Ciudadana party in the October elections could delay the reform. The large informal sector will militate against reducing the pensions deficit.

Colombia set for disappointing trade figures in 2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Structural Barriers ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Export Structure ◽  
Poor Infrastructure ◽  
Development Prospects

Subject Colombia trade. Significance Colombia is highly dependent on a handful of commodities exports, with oil and coal accounting for over 40% of overseas sales. This export structure makes the economy vulnerable to external shocks, such as the recent collapse in global oil prices. Regardless of the ultimate impact of the COVID-19 spread, Colombia’s capacity to diversify its exports is limited by persistent structural barriers including poor infrastructure and lack of export-orientation in the private sector. Impacts Dependence on financial inflows to cover a widening current account deficit makes the economy vulnerable to investor sentiment shocks. Protests are likely to reignite in the coming months and could, if intense and lasting, increase political risk perceptions. In the medium term, Colombia’s ongoing failure to diversify export products and markets constrains its development prospects.

Ghana's Akufo-Addo holds poll advantage over old foe

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Rural Women ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The North ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Volta Region

Significance This is the third time Akufo-Addo and Mahama have faced each other: Akufo-Addo lost to Mahama in 2012 but won in 2016. The appearance of two well-known candidates may contribute to rising voter apathy. Impacts While Akufo-Addo is likely to win a first round, an apparent tightening in the polls means a run-off election cannot be ruled out. The growing social media focus of campaigns will increasingly exclude poorer, more remote voters -- especially rural women in the north. Recent unrest associated with the Western Togoland secession movement in the Volta Region could re-emerge over the short-to-medium term.

New premier will struggle to fix Algeria's economy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Informal Sector ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Administrative Capacity ◽  
Formal Economy ◽  
The Government

Significance The proposal presents a reasonable diagnosis of the multifaceted problems facing Algeria, but it lacks data, priorities, timeframes or medium-term forecasts. The lack of administrative capacity for reform casts further doubt on the plan's prospects. Impacts Higher gas prices will keep Algeria afloat and could allow Benabderrahmane to stay on as premier. Given the plan’s shortcomings, the government is likely to continue investing in oil and gas to grow hydrocarbons receipts. The informal sector will remain an economic lifeline for Algerians excluded from the underperforming formal economy.

Fiscal challenges may weigh on El Salvador growth

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
El Salvador ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Subsidies ◽  
Expenditure Structure ◽  
Monetary Autonomy

Subject El Salvador's economy. Significance A rigid expenditure structure and a growing interest bill have resulted in recurring fiscal deficits over the course of the last decade, despite significant cuts to public subsidies since 2012. As a result, public debt has increased steadily, reaching a historic high of 67% of GDP at end-2018. Medium-term financing needs remain relatively high for a dollarised economy, increasing the country’s vulnerability to external shocks. Impacts While dollarisation involves a loss of monetary autonomy, it will help El Salvador avoid inflationary and currency risks. Increases in credit and liquidity risks will lead to higher sovereign interest risk premium, especially for the LETES. A new pension reform addressing low replacement rates and coverage is expected in 2020.

Tanzanian power sector goals may be attainable

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Environmental Concern ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Power Sector ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Coal Reserves ◽  
Future Business

Subject Tanzania power sector outlook. Significance Basic development initiatives, including improved access to electricity, are vital for Tanzania's economic growth and poverty reduction goals. The pace and capacity of power-generating projects will largely determine the country's medium-term growth prospects. Impacts Tanzania's gas and coal reserves could provide quick sources of power but will raise environmental concern. Negotiations and disputes with current private-sector partners will provide insights into the future business climate. Innovations in off-grid options for power will provide opportunities for firms in rural areas if prices and access are viable.

Does road accessibility benefit rural poor? Evidence on the extent of household off-farm employment from 2004 to 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunli Bai ◽  
Tianhao Zhou ◽  
Zhiyuan Ma ◽  
Linxiu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Panel Model ◽  
Heterogeneous Effects ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the role of infrastructure on the income growth and poverty reduction of rural household in China by estimating the impact of road accessibility on the extent of household off-farm employment and its heterogeneous effects among the groups with different income level and earning capacity.Design/methodology/approachUsing nationally representative panel data collected in 100 villages about 2000 households across five provinces in 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2019. This study adopts Tobit model with panel data, zero-inflated Poisson model and static nonbalanced panel model to yield consistent results.FindingsWe find that road accessibility generally has no effect on the number of off-farm laborers and duration of off-farm employment. However, road accessibility is not beneficial for the households in the low-income villages or with low educational attainment, but it benefits the households in the high-income villages by promoting local off-farm employment or with high educational attainment by increasing the duration of migrant off-farm employment.Originality/valueThis study identifies the heterogeneous effects of road accessibility on the extent of off-farm employment among rural households, which narrows the research gap and enriches the literature. The empirical findings imply that road accessibility widens the gap between rich and poor in off-farm employment, which is of great important to the alleviation of relative poverty after 2020 in China.

Argentine candidates face tough pre-election economy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Context ◽  
Macroeconomic Imbalances ◽  
Run Off

Significance Although Scioli, who stood unopposed, was the most-voted presidential candidate, the distance between the FPV and the Cambiemos alliance, which received 30.6% of the vote, was narrower than expected. Mayor Mauricio Macri of the centre-right PRO was the easy winner of the Cambiemos primary, setting up a likely run-off against Scioli in November. The primaries came in a gloomy economic context: real output figures for the first half of 2015 showed that the economy remains stagnant, as most consumption and investment decisions have been postponed until the next government takes office. Impacts The PASO results provide no greater political certainty. The need to remove macroeconomic imbalances raises the chances of a steep devaluation in the medium term. The restoration of a more market-friendly business environment might favour an economic rebound, but this will be gradual.

Social conservatism finds limited echo in Brazil

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Ideology ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brazilian Society ◽  
Social Conservatism ◽  
Over Time

Subject Brazil social conservativism and politics. Significance A recent survey has shed new light on the profound divisions that cut through Brazilian society. The study reveals the extent to which views vary along lines defined by, among others, religion, income, education and political ideology. However, it also shows an overall picture of a country significantly less conservative than the election of far-right President Jair Bolsonaro in October 2018 suggests. Impacts Bolsonaro’s popularity in the medium term will largely depend on faster economic growth and job creation. Business optimism and investment hinge on passing a pension reform, which looks feasible but not easy. Over time, potential corruption scandals, such as a probe involving Bolsonaro’s son Flavio, could dent the government’s popularity.

Motivating Exercise Through Social Media: Is a Picture Always Worth a Thousand Words?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caitlyn Johnston ◽  
William E. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Individual Differences ◽  
Experimental Design ◽  
Health Behaviors ◽  
Media Content ◽  
Exercise Motivation ◽  
Positive Health ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Within Subjects

In the present study, we examined how the influence of exercise-related social media content on exercise motivation might differ across content type (with images vs. without images) and account type (individual vs. corporate). Using a 2 × 2 within-subjects experimental design, 229 participants viewed a series of 40 actual social media posts across the four conditions (individual posts with images, corporate posts with images, individual posts without images, and corporate posts without images) in a randomized order. Participants rated the extent to which they felt each social media post motivated them to exercise, would motivate others to exercise, and was posted for extrinsic reasons. Participants also completed other measures of individual differences including their own exercise motivation. Posts with images from individuals were more motivating than posts with images from corporations; however, corporate posts without images were more motivating than posts without images from individuals. Participants expected others to be similarly motivated by the stimuli, and perceived corporate posts as having been posted for more extrinsic reasons than individuals’ posts. These findings enhance our understanding of how social media may be used to promote positive health behaviors.

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