Gulf-Iran diplomatic breakthroughs will be piecemeal

Significance He declined to confirm reports of a Saudi visit preparing to reopen diplomatic facilities closed in 2016, pending further progress. A fourth round of negotiations between Saudi and Iranian officials convened in September in the aftermath of the Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership which gathered regional leaders on August 28. Impacts Discounting the prospect of a breakthrough in US-Iran nuclear relations, regional officials will act more independently. Developments in Yemen are likely to undermine the Saudi-Emirati conviction that the Huthis are merely a proxy beholden to Iran. Foreign policy drift in the Biden administration may intensify as US political energy turns toward the 2022 congressional midterm elections.

Significance President Donald Trump said he dismissed Tillerson as he wants his cabinet to be more in line with his thinking; Trump and Tillerson had clashed over policies and priorities. CIA Director Mike Pompeo will be nominated to succeed Tillerson. The nominee to replace Pompeo at the CIA will be current CIA Deputy Director Gina Haspel. Impacts A better-coordinated foreign policy team could help Trump prepare for his new push on North Korea-US ties. Pompeo may find as secretary of state that he disagrees more openly with Trump; the CIA director is not public-facing. Conceivably, the 2018 midterm elections could further delay Trump nominees, but secretaries could work in an acting capacity.


Significance The result was anticipated, not least as the incumbent US president’s party almost always loses congressional seats in midterm elections. Yet this makes the 2018 polls no less significant for both parties, for the 2020 White House race and for President Donald Trump’s Republican administration in the second half of his first term. Impacts Continuing Republican Senate control greatly diminishes the chance Trump could be impeached. Bipartisan cooperation over foreign policy is unlikely to recover soon, partly due to Russia-related controversy. These midterms have elected more women, minorities and younger people, which will influence policy priorities. Trump’s “America First” agenda lives on, but the question of which party’s “America” will loom in 2019-21.


Significance The three parties successfully negotiated a coalition agreement with a strong emphasis on modernising Germany’s economy. Throughout the negotiations, the parties presented a public image of stability and harmony, yet several divisive issues will test the new government's stability and effectiveness. Impacts The composition of the new government will make it harder for Berlin to win approval for the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will seek to prioritise more unity at the EU level when it comes to foreign policy decision-making. The spread of the Omicron variant will slow economic recovery and potentially delay the transition to a greener economy.


Significance The move follows Mexico’s hosting of a Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) summit last month, and provides an opportunity to expand the country’s international profile. However, AMLO generally disregards foreign policy, except as a tool for advancing domestic interests and building public support. Impacts US relations will continue to dominate foreign policy, despite AMLO’s critical rhetoric about rich nations. In the short term, Mexico will frame its foreign policy around calls for increased access to COVID-19 vaccines. Mexico’s energy policy could become a source of international tension, given its potential implications for foreign investors.


Significance Delhi and Hanoi declared a ‘strategic partnership’ in 2007 and a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ in 2016. Each is wary of China’s growing power. Impacts Election of new leaders at the Communist Party of Vietnam’s upcoming national congress will have little impact on Hanoi’s foreign policy. India will resist calls to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Cambodia and Laos will remain the two ASEAN members most closely aligned with China.


Significance Neither is from their party’s mainstream, and has never been elected as a lawmaker. The conservative, Yoon Seok-youl, is a former prosecutor general. The liberal, Lee Jae-myung, was a provincial governor until late October. Whoever wins will succeed Moon Jae-in on May 9 for a single five-year term, until 2027. Impacts Even if Yoon wins, the liberals will control the legislature until at least April 2024 and will do their best to block his initiatives. The election will be fought mainly on domestic issues; if foreign policy becomes salient, this will benefit the pro-US, Japan-friendly Yoon. Lee's universal basic income proposal would make South Korea the first major economy to adopt such a policy.


Significance This goal was implicitly a response to the previous three decades of foreign relations under ousted former President Omar al-Bashir, when Sudan struggled under international sanctions, isolation and fluctuating foreign policy fortunes. Impacts Contrasting foreign policy orientations among political factions may be a source of tension within the power-sharing government. Contradictory agreements with other countries will be a liability. Foreign investment inflows will remain muted, at least until economic and political uncertainty fades.


Significance The reshuffle involves some significant changes, including the promotion of Economy Minister Nadia Calvino as first deputy prime minister. Other notable changes include new ministers at the head of foreign policy and territorial policy, which deals with relations with Catalonia. Impacts Sanchez has increased the number of women and young people in the new cabinet; this could broaden his appeal among centrist voters. While Madrid will continue to respect EU policy parameters, Sanchez’s continued reliance on UP and ERC support will worry investors. Sanchez’s leadership of the PSOE could come under threat if he is seen as ‘giving too much’ to Catalan nationalists.


Author(s):  
Athbi Zaid Khalaf

Purpose The purpose of this study is to cover the change that happened in the American foreign policy toward Iran by changing the American leadership from Obama to Trump. In addition to its coverage for the Iranian foreign policy toward the Arab region during the presidency period of Obama in the USA and also during the presidency period of Trump, to discover whether a change has happened in the Iranian foreign policy toward the Arab region is a result of the change in the American foreign policy or not. This can be discovered by concentrating on Yemen, Syria and Iraq, taking into consideration the Iranian and American national interests in the Arab region, as well as the regional role of Iran and its intervention in the Arab region. Design/methodology/approach This study was based on the analytical method of the foreign policy that is based on analyzing facts and events, as well as analyzing the roles and interests within the framework of the states’ foreign policy. This method was used in the study for the purpose of analyzing the impact of the change in the American leadership from Obama to Trump on the US foreign policy toward Iran in the light of the American interest; in addition to the Iranian foreign policy toward the Arab region (Yemen, Syria and Iraq) in the presidency period of both Obama and Trump in light of the regional role of Iran and its passion to achieve its national interest. Findings The study concluded that the change in the American foreign policy toward Iran is a result of the change of the American leadership from Obama to Trump by the American interest requirements in accordance to the respective of both of them. The change in the American policy led to a change in the trends of the Iranian foreign policy toward the Arab region in the term of the regional Iranian role. Under the American and Iranian convergence in the period of Obama, the Iranian role in the Arab region was limited to what could achieve its national interest and what did not threaten the American interest, especially after Iran had guaranteed that the USA is by its side. In the framework of the American and Iranian confrontation under Trump’s current presidency, the Iranian role has expanded in the Arab region, where Iran has intensified its intervention in Yemen, Syria and Iraq politically and militarily. Iran became more threatening to the American interest, as it became a means of pressure to the USA under Trump’s ruling in the purpose of changing its position toward it. Originality/value The importance of the study stems from the fact that it is seeking to analyze the change of the American foreign policy toward Iran within the period of two different presidential years of Obama and Trump, whereas, their trends were different in dealing with Iran between rapprochement and hostility toward it, on the basis of the American interest. In addition to testing whether this change in the American foreign policy toward Iran has been accompanied by a change in the Iranian foreign policy toward the Arab region.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document