New CIA chief has credibility and foreign policy ties

Headline UNITED STATES: New CIA chief will have credibility

Significance The FAA's proposed regulations will open up drone use in the United States to commercial exploitation. While in some respects less rigorous than they might have been, the draft regulations will initially limit drone use. This could leave the United States in a less advantageous position than operators elsewhere in the world to develop drone-based services. Impacts The potential market for these larger drones is put at over 89 billion dollars over the next ten years. Military sales will be 72 billion dollars in that period. End-use control on military exports will help Washington influence allied foreign policy.


Subject Foreign policy after the attempted coup. Significance Before the July 15 coup attempt, foreign policy was showing signs of turning towards pragmatism from the ambitious positions associated with former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Rapprochement was sought with both Russia and Israel, and relations with the United States and EU were relatively stable. The attempted coup introduces considerable uncertainty. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's insistence that US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen was behind it is drawing the United States into Turkey's most serious political trauma in decades. Impacts Relations with the West are unlikely to return to their pre-coup warmth soon. The most likely result for US-Turkish relations is what may be termed a 'stressed-out partnership of convenience'. How both US-Turkish relations and Turkey's conflict with the PKK develop will determine Turkish policy on Syria and the ISG.


Subject Russia's new foreign policy document. Significance A new foreign policy concept presents Russia as a nation facing a range of security threats but nevertheless willing to play a global role in a multipolar, chaotic and unpredictable world. Replacing the 2013 foreign policy concept, the document also attempts to assuage fears of Russian expansionist intent. Impacts Assumptions about the United States may change rapidly under President Donald Trump. Moscow will strengthen its foothold in Syria as a bargaining chip with the West and to show its resolve not to back down under pressure. Russia will refuse to relax control over Ukraine's eastern regions. Asian policy will consist partly of courting China and partly of seeking alliances to counterbalance this. Economic cooperation with Japan will be constrained by lack of a near-term deal on territorial issues.


Significance Bolsonaro’s visit to Davos was his first foreign trip since taking office on January 1. His speech, while trying to portray Brazil as “open for business”, also reinforced the radical change his government is promoting in the country’s foreign policy, from a tradition of pragmatism and multilateralism to a highly ideological and nationalistic stance. This move is less the result of a calculated international strategy than part of an effort to strengthen Bolsonaro’s domestic agenda. Impacts Bolsonaro will struggle to balance “open for business” promises with his nationalistic foreign policy. Emulating Trump’s aggressive stance without having the United States' military and economic power risks seriously weakening Brazil globally. Brazil’s new climate change scepticism will further weaken global efforts in this area.


Subject Belarus's attempts to court the EU and the United States. Significance The Belarusian government has shifted from an exclusively Russia-oriented foreign policy to a campaign to mend fences with the West. Government statements and a defence policy document speak of equal, non-adversarial relationships, while President Alexander Lukashenka has encouraged greater engagement with the EU and United States. Impacts Western governments will grant more legitimacy to the government. Opposition parties will find it harder to cite international isolation as a failed government policy. The EU's Eastern Partnership may be revitalised by its emerging role as conduit for ties with Belarus.


Subject Prospects for Russian foreign policy in 2016. Significance This year has proven to be highly eventful in Russian foreign policy, with a major military intervention to save Syria's embattled President Bashar al-Assad, and the Kremlin's continuing support for the separatists in Ukraine's Donbas. Russia's relations with the West are at an all-time low, and next year looks set to be another challenging year for Moscow's relations with the EU, NATO and United States.


Significance In the midst of economic and security problems at home and accelerating instability in the region, President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi has looked outwards to seek help. Partnerships with the Gulf have aided a reeling Egyptian economy while active relations with Russia have provided military benefits. Yesterday it was announced that Russia will supply Egypt with 46 new Ka-52K Alligator Helicopters for Egypt's two new French Mistral warships. Impacts Any differences with the Gulf on Syria will not be acute enough to damage relations. Besides, Egypt's direct involvement and impact on the Syrian civil war are negligible. However, Egypt will continue taking a more active role in Libya. Relations with the United States will be sustained given the decades-old strategic partnership that is still important to both sides.


Significance Trump entered office deeply sceptical of the importance of wars in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, but his critics say his troop-withdrawal announcements are timed to distract US public opinion from the Mueller probe into his administration and 2016 election campaign. Other critics -- some of them otherwise Trump’s allies, including Republican senators -- fear the troop withdrawals will raise the terrorism threat facing the United States. Impacts A government shutdown tonight would see a further push for continuing resolutions to fund the government, pending further talks. Mattis had been a quasi-envoy to US defence partners in Asia; they will be concerned by his departure. Resurgence of terrorism in Syria or Afghanistan could undermine Trump politically, if the threat facing the United States rises. Republican Senate control should help Mattis’s replacement get confirmed more easily.


Subject The Trump administration's policy on the Libya conflict. Significance In recent weeks, the United States has pursued a more active foreign policy towards Libya. This is a departure from its position of the past eight years of ‘leading from the back’ on Libya and comes as US President Donald Trump faces an impeachment investigation and elections in November 2020. With the vote approaching, Trump's opponents have increasingly criticised his position on Moscow, drawing attention to the presence of Russian mercenaries in Libya. Impacts Ties with Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and the relative influence Russia has with them, will weigh on the administration’s thinking. The State Department may push more actively for a ceasefire when a conference of external actors in Libya takes place in Berlin. A ceasefire could fragment the forces fighting Haftar without robust external guarantees that his forces would not violate it.


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