Hungary’s Marki-Zay threatens Orban's chances in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Member State ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
State Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
First Time ◽  
Real Chance ◽  
The Eu

Significance The opposition now has a real chance to unseat Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the 2022 elections for the first time since Fidesz’s 2010 landslide. Vast incumbent advantages and a likely spending spree fuelled by EU funds still make Orban the likelier winner, but as a political outsider, Marki-Zay may appeal beyond the opposition’s traditional base. Impacts Russia retains an interest in keeping Orban in power and Kremlin meddling in the election is possible. The United States has an interest in change and may contribute to it, for instance through sanctions, as it did in Bulgaria last summer. To avoid appearing to interfere in member state politics, the EU will postpone planned moves to withhold funding from Hungary.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

EU may struggle to enforce social standards via trade

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Environmental Standards ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Standards ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
First Time ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
The Eu

Significance In 2020 the European Commission appointed a Chief Trade Enforcement Officer for the first time, signalling that Brussels is intent on enhancing its capacity to enforce standards agreed in trade deals. However, the EU's experience with South Korea suggests that holding trade partners to account over breaching standards will be difficult. Impacts Relations with trade partners could deteriorate if the EU is seen to be aggressive in enforcing its standards. Concern over China’s willingness to improve labour and environmental standards could impede ratification the EU-China investment agreement. The EU may be reluctant to sanction some partners, such as the United States, that breach labour or environmental standards.

A substantial US-UK trade agreement is unlikely

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Ability To Drive ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK-US trade talks. Significance Hard-line Brexiteers have long viewed a trade agreement with the United States as an important political and economic benefit for the United Kingdom from leaving the EU. With Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s determination to deliver Brexit by October 31 with or without a deal -- the latter appearing more likely -- the prospect of UK-US trade negotiations has risen up the political agenda. Impacts Washington knows a trade deal is politically important to the Conservatives, strengthening its ability to drive a deal favourable to itself. It will be very difficult for London to address regulatory obstacles with the United States without increasing them in trade with the EU. London’s positions on such issues as Iran and Huawei will likely affect the UK’s overall leverage with the United States.

Geopolitical rivalry leaves Europe with less influence

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Member State ◽  
The United States ◽  
Regulatory Environment ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Global Order ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Unity ◽  
Daunting Challenge ◽  
The Eu

Significance Global order and institutions have been undermined by the hostile assertiveness of the United States, China, Russia and Turkey; COVID-19 has strengthened the trend. This leaves Europe facing the daunting challenge of pursuing a new geostrategic agenda conducive to political unity and economic success. Impacts The disproportionate impact of COVID-19 across the EU risks accelerating Euroscepticism. In the wake of budget cuts and member state divisions the EU will continue to struggle to stabilise troubles in its neighbourhood. EU efforts to assert its international influence by shaping the global regulatory environment risk facing greater backlash.

Hong Kong opposition may split over delayed election

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
National Security ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Pressure ◽  
First Time ◽  
Real Chance

Significance The current Council will sit until then. The administration justified its decision on the basis of a spike in coronavirus cases, but many believe it is an effort to hamper the opposition, which for the first time stood a real chance of winning a majority despite an electoral system skewed against it. Impacts Despite losing confidence in Hong Kong, other countries will probably not alter their treatment of it as much as the United States has. Referring to decision to postpone the election to Beijing weakens the legal wall between Hong Kong and mainland China. The Hong Kong government will continue to exert legal pressure on prominent activists, including application of the National Security Law.

Canada-US ties will see fewer irritants under Biden

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Keystone Xl ◽  
Keystone Xl Pipeline

Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.

Neither side is ready to step back in Georgian crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
National Movement ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.

Japan joining Five Eyes would mean tough compromises

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Issue ◽  
The United States ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Potential Contribution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Policy Issue ◽  
Opening Up

Significance The possibility of Japan joining the alliance is now seriously discussed in Tokyo and the capitals of the Five Eyes members -- the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Joining Five Eyes would signal Japan’s even deeper integration into US alliance structures, regionally and globally, and raise expectations for Japan to act as a fuller ally in all sorts of contingencies. Impacts Japan’s greatest potential contribution to allies is probably in signals and imagery intelligence, especially vis-a-vis China. The prime minister will avoid opening up a controversial foreign policy issue so close to a general election; his successor may be bolder. Japan’s partners still run a risk of leaks due to Japan’s lag in cybersecurity and institutional arrangements, but this is decreasing.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

Genetically Modified Crops

2021 ◽  
pp. 112-133
Author(s):  
Alasdair R. Young
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Member State ◽  
Environmental Impacts ◽  
Decision Rule ◽  
Genetically Modified ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Genetically Modified Crops ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Governments ◽  
The Eu

This chapter presents the EU’s responses with respect to three closely related policies: the approval of genetically modified (GM) crops for sale and (separately) for cultivation and efforts to lift member state bans on EU-approved GM varieties. These most similar cases differ in outcome; with the EU resuming approvals for sale (a change sufficient to placate Argentina and Canada, but not the United States), but not for cultivation and failing to address member state bans despite very permissive decision rules. In these cases, no tariffs were threatened and there was no exporter mobilization. Commission trade officials did push to accelerate approvals. The Commission, which was more favorably disposed toward biotechnology than most of the member states, was able, with the help of very a permissive decision rule, to overcome opposition to approvals for sale, but not for cultivation, reflecting greater concern among regulators about the environmental impacts of GM cultivation than about the safety of GM varieties. The member state governments also balked at forcing their peers to change their policies. There is little evidence that the WTO’s adverse ruling affected any of the protagonists’ preferences.

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