Prospects for the Gulf states in 2022

Subject Prospects for the Gulf states in 2022. Significance The six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), especially Saudi Arabia, are enjoying the windfall from a tight global energy market that has pushed up oil and natural gas prices. They have also coped effectively with the healthcare challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, laying the groundwork for positive economic prospects in 2022.

Subject Prospects for the Gulf states to end-2017. Significance Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries agree on the need to check Iran’s regional aspirations, but differ radically on how to achieve this goal -- pushing Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to open confrontation with Qatar and leaving Kuwait and Oman caught uncomfortably in the middle. At the same time, they face the major challenge of adjusting their economies to long-term expectations of lower oil revenue.


Subject The Gulf 's cybersecurity agenda. Significance Offensive cyber capabilities are technological tools for intruding into external digital networks to delete, steal or manipulate data. All six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar -- are developing these capabilities in the face of multiple threats. Impacts There is currently no indication that the GCC states are preparing cyberattacks against critical infrastructure. GCC states will continue relying on Western and Israel private firms for advanced surveillance tools. Efforts to nationalise the cybersecurity sector will advance slowly. Cyber espionage is almost certainly a fourth, covert GCC goal.


Significance Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are pursuing ambitious natural gas plans that depend on relatively high-cost non-associated gas developments. Impacts The cost of gas in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE will rise, creating further pressure to reform domestic markets. Hoped-for LNG export opportunities are unlikely to be realised in the short-to-medium term. Initial phases of assessment will determine whether the targeted prospects are genuinely commercial. Gas production will be intimately linked with refinery and petrochemical expansion plans.


Subject Prospects for the Gulf states in 2018. Significance The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) saw dramatic political changes in 2017. Mohammed bin Salman advanced to become Saudi crown prince. The GCC also split in a way not seen since its foundation in 1981, after three members -- Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain -- launched a boycott of Qatar in June.


Subject Prospects for oil and gas in the second quarter Significance Elevated levels of supply will keep oil and natural gas prices weak. The recent uptick in the price of Brent crude is not reflected in the oversupplied US market, so the slowdown in US crude output growth, centred on shale, should continue into the second quarter. Brent's recent price strength, in part, reflects brightening prospects for the global economy, but more evidence is needed to push prices higher.


Subject Prospects for the Middle East and North Africa to end-2016 Significance The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is beset by multiple armed conflicts and security crises, and faces daunting economic challenges as a result of both the widespread political turmoil and the impact of the sharp fall in oil and natural gas prices.


Significance This comes as Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states begin serious reforms to adapt to a new period of low oil prices. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) led the way in August 2015 by ending fuel subsidies, and Saudi Arabia has just reduced its own. Spending plans are being re-examined and new revenue-raising measures are being discussed seriously for the first time. Impacts Growth will stall in most sectors, particularly those that depend on government spending. Commercial opportunities may arise for companies that can help make efficiency savings or fill capacity gaps. Pressure will grow to end the Yemen war which is a drain on Saudi and UAE finances.


Subject Prospects for the Gulf states to end 2019 Significance In the absence of a Gulf conflict, oil prices will keep steady, boosting the coffers of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. The focus on the Iran crisis has taken the sting out of the controversy sparked by the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, but investment in Saudi Arabia is staying low and capital flight is continuing. Intra-GCC relations remain strained, with the underlying causes -- the war in Yemen, the blockade of Qatar and difference in strategy towards Iran -- unchanged.


Significance The zero-carbon fuel, promoted as a way to assist a global energy transition away from oil and gas, is the focus of major planned projects in Oman and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, the region’s oil and gas exporters are also looking to maximise the value of their fossil fuel resources before the transition is complete. Impacts GCC oil and gas exporters will become increasingly aggressive in their efforts to knock high-cost operators out of the market. Economic diversification will gather pace, and Gulf states will seek to become hubs for new forms of energy, in particular green hydrogen. The Gulf faces a high risk of economic, political and social turbulence during the transition.


2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 365-386
Author(s):  
Debbie Abuelghanam ◽  
Naser Tahboub

Much has been written about the relationship between Iran and the Gulf states. This relationship, while extremely complex, historic as well as deep rooted, needs to be revisited, especially in the light of the growing discords. This article investigates the contest over the balance of power in the Middle East which is impacted by state interests, foreign policy, ideology, sectarianism, and geography. There are three questions that need to be asked: (a) What role does Iran play in the Gulf region? (b) What is its relationship with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)? and (c) Is there room for the two regional powers (Iran and Saudi Arabia) in the Gulf region? Iran’s role in the Middle East has expanded exponentially by both diplomatic means as well as by proxy and direct interventions. It has become apparent that while once Saudi Arabia controlled the GCC, due to recent events, the regional group has become trivialized. As Saudi Arabia and Iran vie for power, the Gulf is tension-filled and fraught with the possibility of misperceptions and miscalculations.


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