Shell departure will expose Dutch business risks

Significance The oil and gas giant cited the country’s 15% dividend tax on some types of shares as a key reason behind its decision, while in recent years the company has been subject to climate litigation in the courts. Impacts The government will be significantly more vigilant and protective of key industrial players such as semiconductor producer ASML. Farmers' protests are likely to increase amid worsening constraints over climate regulation and competition for space. Successful legal action over climate change in the Netherlands will encourage similar action in other countries.

Significance As in 2020 and 2021, this projected growth will be driven by the ongoing expansion of the oil and gas sector, and related investment and state revenues. These rising revenues will support the government’s ambitious national development plans, which include both increased social and infrastructure spending. Impacts The government will prioritise enhancing the oil and gas investment framework. Investment into joint oil and gas infrastructure with Suriname will benefit the growing oil industry in both countries. The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a rise in inflation, leading to further calls for wage increases. In the medium term, strong growth in the oil and gas sector could lead to increased climate change activism in the country.


Significance In July, it expressed optimism about achieving net-zero emissions by “2060 or sooner”. This will require a phasing out of coal-fired power plants, currently the dominant source of energy in the country. Impacts Jakarta may include its 2060 target explicitly in future updates of its Nationally Determined Contribution to action against climate change. Indonesian oil and gas firms will step up opposition to the government’s plans to introduce a carbon tax. The government will redouble commitment to reforestation efforts.


Significance Fourteen days beforehand, Ardern said no new offshore oil and gas exploration permits would be awarded -- evidence she said of the “government of transformation” she promises. The offshore ban does not affect the wide areas already open for exploration and exploitation over the next three decades, but it reinforces the government’s intention to be more active on climate change and environmental protection. Like the government's “wellbeing economics”, this might prove transformative if Ardern can retain office through to at least the next election in 2020. Impacts The offshore oil and gas exploration ban could see earlier withdrawal by major oil producers. Onshore permits for oil and gas exploration and coal mining will continue. Any major political or economic shock will affect “transformation”, as Robertson warns.


Significance National GDP nevertheless contracted by just 1.5% in 2020 -- less than almost any other country in Latin America. Resilient remittances and exports, coupled with unprecedented policy support, have mitigated the effects of the pandemic and subsequent containment measures, leaving the country better placed for recovery than its neighbours. Impacts Enduring poverty, inequality and violent crime, and the impacts of accelerating climate change, will drive further migration from Guatemala. The government will pursue banking law reforms, to reduce risks to financial activities in the post-pandemic business environment. Infighting and corruption scandals will hinder the opposition's ability to benefit from the decline of the president's popularity.


2010 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 694
Author(s):  
Michele Villa

The Senate rejection of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Bill 2009 (CPRS) for the second time in December 2009 caused key sections of Australia’s big business to express concern. The stalled legislation and the challenges associated with the Copenhagen Accord to deliver a clear post-2012 global climate change agreement have only fuelled uncertainty surrounding the future of climate change policy. This uncertainty will come at a cost for the Australian LNG industry where a raft of new projects are fast approaching final investment decisions and the real impact of a carbon impost is difficult to quantify. Despite this uncertainty, subsequent negotiations between the Government and the Opposition regarding the LNG industry, led to an amended version of the CPRS Bill. One of the amendments accepted by the Government was related to the allocation rate and states that LNG is expected to be a moderately emissions intensive trade exposed (EITE) activity and therefore eligible to receive free permits at a fixed rate per tonne of LNG produced. Should this version of the CPRS become legislation in 2010, LNG producers will at least be able to calculate their liability under the scheme and confirm their compliance strategy. Given the significant value at stake with existing and new investments, oil and gas businesses should act with urgency to develop strategies to respond to a carbon constrained future, irrespective of the final legislative design. Scenario planning is an important step in considering the range of regulatory outcomes—both domestic and international—that will impact on the supply and demand of carbon assets.


2010 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 143
Author(s):  
Sue Slater

This paper provides a brief update on some of the key environmental issues that arose during 2009. In Queensland, activity is dominated by coal seam gas projects and specifically coal seam gas (CSG) to liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. Environmental milestones for these projects are discussed, and the State Government’s response policy and regulation development response is reviewed. The progress of the more conventional LNG projects in Western Australia and the Northern Territory is also discussed. The final report on the mandated ten year review of the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 was released in December 2009. Seventy-one recommendations were made, and some key recommendations related to our industry are discussed here. Climate change has again dominated the media, with the United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Copenhagen in December 2009. In Queensland, the Government released a paper that presented a range of strategies and policies, building on a number of existing schemes and introducing new measures. Gas is identified as a key transitional fuel while low emission coal technology and emerging renewable energy sources are being developed. Greenhouse gas legislation is continuing to be developed across several states, but subordinate legislation is yet to be finalised. In Victoria, submissions on the Greenhouse Gas Geological Sequestration Regulations closed in October 2009, and the Greenhouse Gas Geological Sequestration Act 2008 came into effect on 1 December 2009. In March 2009, ten offshore acreage releases were made under the Commonwealth legislation; however, the closing date for submissions is dependent upon the development of the regulations. South Australia passed an Act amending the Petroleum and Geothermal Act 2000 on 1 October 2009 to allow geosequestration. A number of reviews of the regulatory framework or the administrative systems associated with the upstream oil and gas sector have been completed in the last decade. All these reviews make similar findings and recommendations, and most recently the Jones Report, tabled in Western Australian Parliament on 12 August 2009, found that most key recommendations from previous reports and reviews had not been addressed or properly implemented. There seems to be little point in undertaking regulatory and system reviews that consistently make similar findings, if these findings are never addressed. The hurdles to implementation of key recommendations need to be identified, so that progress can be made in improving the approvals processes for the industry, and improving the environmental outcomes.


2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruiti Aretaake

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to report how the encouragement of collaboration between local stakeholders, communities and the government helps slow the great impact of disaster risks and the impacts of climate change on livelihoods and lives. It also describes how promoting the acceptance and contributions of traditional knowledge in this effort owing to their accessibility and affordability and their cultural compatibility with the community contributes to addressing the challenges in Kiribati faces. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on government and NGO reports, as well as other documentary sources, this paper examines the nature of current efforts and the state of community practices in Kiribati. Findings Disaster risks and climate change are currently destroying all facets of I-Kiribati life. It is, therefore, imperative that a holistic form of partnership bringing together both state and non-state actors and that through this community awareness be implemented within the Kiribati policies and community development programs to improve dissemination of prevention and risk reduction programs, while maintaining the cultural infrastructure. Social implications Access to modern technologies and factors which inhibit local utilization of natural resources as well as traditional Kiribati beliefs about environment issues and impacts on people illustrate the potential and difficulties of convergence of new ideas with traditional knowledge. Originality/value The Kiribati “Frontline” project is an activity which has been led by the Foundation for the Peoples of the South Pacific Kiribati, both stimulated and in part subsidized by the Global Network for Disaster Reduction that provided financial support to work with rural and urban communities on mitigating disaster risks and climate change issues.


Subject Proposed reforms in the oil and gas sector. Significance In the face of strong resource nationalism, President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo's government faces strong pressure to improve the balance between public control and private participation in the oil and gas sector. To that end, the government proposes to amend the 2001 oil and gas law. Its draft amendment proposes, most notably, that state enterprises should control all production operations, while private investors provide technology and capital. The government is also considering revisions to the upstream regime, which is currently based on production-sharing contracts (PSCs). These changes require parliamentary approval. Impacts Private firms, especially foreign ones, are likely to delay fresh investment in energy assets, given the oil and gas market glut. Indonesia's vast natural resource endowment will attract private interest, but regulatory uncertainty will be an abiding problem. Transparency in the extractive sector will continue to rise at the national level, but local level reforms will be slow.


Significance In April, similar action was taken against nearly 9,000 other non-profits. These moves are part of intensifying clashes between the government and civil society. Many NGOs are vocal opponents of Modi's key policies, and the government is frustrated at their perceived ability to harness popular opposition and use the judiciary to stall key projects. Impacts Government efforts on coal (and to a lesser extent nuclear energy) will still encounter NGO resistance. The Supreme Court may become embroiled in the NGO-government clash, portending costly and lengthy battles for investors. Western governments are likely to be more sensitive to Modi's regulatory crackdown, risking hurdles in improving diplomatic ties.


Significance Another field, Chouech Essaida, has been shut since February 28 because of labour unrest. Demonstrations extend beyond the oil and gas sector. Months of protests across Tunisia are beginning to exact a toll on the coalition government as demonstrators return to the streets of the capital to challenge the latest effort to pass a controversial ‘economic reconciliation’ bill that would in effect give amnesty to businessmen who engaged in corrupt practices under the former regime. Impacts The unity of the coalition government will come under further pressure as ministers struggle to respond to demonstrations. Political parties risk becoming more isolated from the electorate without major internal reforms. The government will be tempted to return to more authoritarian techniques of rule as protests deepen.


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