Washington's Africa policy still lacks a framework

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
War On Terror ◽  
Democracy Promotion ◽  
Global Competition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Term Trends

Significance President Joe Biden’s core Africa team has been in place for several months now but the development of Washington’s Africa policy appears awkwardly caught between the president’s democracy promotion agenda, his broad concern about global competition from China and lingering assumptions from the war on terror. Impacts Chinese and Russian activity in countries usually seen as peripheral is becoming more significant for Washington. As more crises affect the Horn and the Sahel, Washington will pay greater attention to anchor countries such as Kenya and Senegal. In keeping with long-term trends, Africa does not appear likely to become a high priority for the Biden administration.

Election result will tone down Turkey's foreign policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Turkish Foreign Policy ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
Political Clout ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Policy Shifts

Subject The June 7 elections' consequences for Turkish foreign policy. Significance The elections are the first setback since 2002 for the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has dominated and in many ways transformed Turkish foreign policy. The AKP's unquestioned prowess in domestic politics had rendered foreign policy almost a non-issue, with courses of action being determined by the party alone, even when the opposition voiced criticism. The elections have undermined AKP's grip on power and will lead to a weaker coalition, minority government or period of acute political uncertainty, if not instability, defined by possible early elections by late-2015. Impacts Turkey will adopt a more 'toned-down' discourse and policy on such divisive issues domestically as the Syrian civil war. Major policy shifts in long-term trends, including Turkey's EU, US and Russian relationships, are unlikely. Erdogan will probably adopt a 'softer' discourse with the West, moderating his former confrontational attitude. Potential for tensions exist with the increasing political clout and territorial reach of the Syrian Kurdish militia.

scholarly journals An integrated three-layered foresight framework

foresight ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 250-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cornelis van Dorsser ◽  
Poonam Taneja
Keyword(s):  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Major Transitions ◽  
Meta Level ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Changing World

Purpose The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context. Design/methodology/approach The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights. Findings The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends. Research limitations/implications The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework. Practical implications The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments. Social implications The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers. Originality/value The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

Biden's Africa team will try to hold a steady course

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Crisis Management ◽  
War On Terror ◽  
Democracy Promotion ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
To Come ◽  
Trade Promotion

Significance Crisis management, trade promotion, counterterrorism and development efforts are likely to continue, together with democracy promotion initiatives in some countries. Substantial continuity in the relevant committees suggests some keen congressional interest in Africa, but this is likely to come from familiar faces. Impacts The Africa team is highly competent but somewhat risk-averse and may prioritise bolstering stability over encouraging change. It appears unlikely that Africa will move significantly up the ladder of foreign policy issues. Career diplomats whose major postings occurred during the 'War on Terror' may be relatively sympathetic to AFRICOM’s priorities.

Prospects for fossil fuels in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Long Term Trends

Significance US shale is now the swing provider in global oil markets and rising prices have encouraged production increases. With prices for future delivery lower than spot rates, buyers are paying a premium to obtain prompt supplies and helping to draw down stocks. Fossil fuel prices are likely to remain stable in the short term, but long-term trends will have an increasing impact.

Commercial trawling in seagrass beds: bycatch and long-term trends in effort of a major shrimp fishery

2014 ◽  
Vol 513 ◽  
pp. 143-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
CD Stallings ◽  
JP Brower ◽  
JM Heinlein Loch ◽  
A Mickle
Keyword(s):  
Seagrass Beds ◽  
Shrimp Fishery ◽  
Long Term Trends
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