Biden's Africa team will try to hold a steady course

Significance Crisis management, trade promotion, counterterrorism and development efforts are likely to continue, together with democracy promotion initiatives in some countries. Substantial continuity in the relevant committees suggests some keen congressional interest in Africa, but this is likely to come from familiar faces. Impacts The Africa team is highly competent but somewhat risk-averse and may prioritise bolstering stability over encouraging change. It appears unlikely that Africa will move significantly up the ladder of foreign policy issues. Career diplomats whose major postings occurred during the 'War on Terror' may be relatively sympathetic to AFRICOM’s priorities.

Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.


Significance The centrist, 'Blairite' section of the party has been defeated and largely excluded from leadership positions. Corbyn's past statements and policy stances are widely believed to render him implausible as a potential prime minister, and thus the Labour Party unelectable with him as leader. The likelihood of the governing Conservatives winning the 2020 general election has increased. Impacts Corbyn is likely to back continued UK EU membership in the referendum, helping to protect him from an early party coup. Because of his previous ambivalence, Corbyn's backing for continued EU membership will make it harder for the left to back 'Brexit'. Foreign policy issues will be among the most difficult under Corbyn, both within the party and with the government. Given the government's small majority, Corbyn's win will make parliamentary support for air strikes against Syrian targets harder to secure. Corbyn's win is unlikely to restore Labour's fortunes in Scotland, potentially boosting support for independence.


Significance The investigations relate to concerns that Trump abused his office by seeking to have a political rival, former Vice President Joe Biden, investigated by Ukraine, which Trump denies. It has brought into the spotlight the conduct of US policy towards Ukraine, and that has seen criticism of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. It also comes as the Trump administration’s senior foreign policy team has seen personnel shifts. Impacts Pence will focus on foreign policy issues that resonate with evangelical voters, notably Israel and Middle Eastern Christians. Pence will also focus on promoting security and human rights abroad, leaving trade policy to Trump and trade officials. Pence will throw his support and influence behind getting the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement passed, and a US-China trade deal.


Significance Samia’s administration appears markedly more open on foreign policy issues, although there are growing concerns this may not be matched by any greater openness towards domestic democratic freedoms. Impacts Samia’s charismatic diplomacy may help restore previously damaged foreign relations and build new ties too. The economic benefits of improving foreign relations may prove limited as shifting geopolitics dampens enthusiasm for new investments. Despite a shift in tone regarding COVID-19, actual policy may still prioritise economic considerations over public health.


2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (8) ◽  
pp. 4-6

Purpose Reviews the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoints practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies. Design/methodology/approach This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context. Findings If we believe everything we see in the movies, then crisis management comes in three different guises. Firstly, there is full-blown meltdown – sweating brow, fidgety, screaming at anyone foolish enough to come near. Secondly, there is catatonic indecision – unspeaking, terror-stricken, unable to move a muscle in the face of the enormity of what they are being asked to do. Finally, there is the heroic response – ice cool, measured, calm, and ultimately saving the day for all concerned. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.


Significance Rebooting the economy is just one challenge facing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. The junta leader-turned-civilian premier continues to come under pressure from a pro-democracy protest movement and faces tough choices on foreign policy. Impacts Bangkok will come under increasing external pressure to allow humanitarian aid to flow from Thailand into Myanmar. Prayut will likely cut ties with the ruling Phalang Pracharat Party if he brings forward the elections. Calls for reform of the political system will persist despite the increasingly severe clampdown on demonstrators by the authorities.


Significance President Joe Biden’s core Africa team has been in place for several months now but the development of Washington’s Africa policy appears awkwardly caught between the president’s democracy promotion agenda, his broad concern about global competition from China and lingering assumptions from the war on terror. Impacts Chinese and Russian activity in countries usually seen as peripheral is becoming more significant for Washington. As more crises affect the Horn and the Sahel, Washington will pay greater attention to anchor countries such as Kenya and Senegal. In keeping with long-term trends, Africa does not appear likely to become a high priority for the Biden administration.


Significance Separately, his administration on February 11 announced a sanctions regime to pressure the Myanmar military to reverse the recent coup. It has also instigated a return to membership of the Geneva-based UN Human Rights Council, which the former US administration left in 2018. Impacts A values-based foreign policy will connect with Congress, where there is support for human rights and democracy promotion. Biden will exacerbate some political tensions over Israel as he increases US participation in international human rights foruns. Under international law, the designation of China’s treatment of Muslim Uighurs as genocide would require action from Washington.


Author(s):  
David Ryan ◽  
Liam O'Brien

Democracy promotion has been a key aspect of U.S. identity and foreign policy, though Washington also has a long history of supporting non-democratic forms of governance; it has both consolidated democratic regimes and intervened to overthrow democratically elected governments. Democracy promotion is a broad term encompassing different activities, undertaken as part of a nation’s foreign policy, which intend to initiate and foster democratic governance abroad. Democracy promotion efforts may include, among other strategies, “traditional” diplomacy, targeted foreign aid and assistance, and both covert and overt military intervention. While democracy promotion has now become an accepted foreign policy norm among many nations, numerous issues and debates continue to surround its deployment, ranging from granular questions concerning how to best distribute foreign aid up to larger, more fundamental disputes centered on the effectiveness and legitimacy of democracy promotion. Such issues have a particular relevance to the history of U.S. foreign policy: the meta-narrative of U.S. foreign policy and its grand strategy is axiomatically associated with democracy and with democracy promotion. Indeed, given its self-characterization as a shining “city on a hill,” charges of inconsistency and double-standards frequently attend U.S. efforts at democracy promotion. Certainly, despite the rhetorical positions of many presidents, democracy promotion has never been the driving factor behind U.S. foreign policy but rather one component of a wider picture. The United States has frequently supported authoritarian regimes, undermined democracy, or supported a form of “low-intensity” or limited veneer of democratic practice. That said, the institutionalization of U.S. democracy promotion has not only set it more firmly on the agenda but also made it a more visible feature of U.S. policy. The democracy promotion efforts that served the Reagan administration’s goals in Latin America—mainly funding quasi-governmental groups that sought to foster opposition to unfriendly governments and strengthen civic society in target countries more generally—have provided a model for the basis of a large democracy promotion industry, providing a genuine substance to U.S. democracy promotion rhetoric in the process. The “industrialization” of democracy promotion, however, has created its own issues; namely an uncritical environment in which the promotion of a relatively shallow form of U.S.–style democracy has been presumed to be best, no matter the individual circumstances and nuances of target countries. The problems formed by such biases, along with a host of other challenges, will likely ensure that U.S. democracy promotion remains a contentious issue for some time to come.


Significance This, along with the reported presence of Chinese survey vessels at Benham Rise, is undercutting Duterte’s foreign policy pivot towards China. Moreover, the Benham incursions underline communication and policy problems within Duterte’s administration. Impacts Duterte’s foreign policy shift towards China will come under increasing domestic pressure. Dealing with China will be harder until a new Philippine foreign secretary is appointed and gains experience. Continued Chinese assertiveness could see Duterte concede that he needs closer ties with Washington. The risk of Duterte being impeached over China’s actions in Philippine waters is currently negligible.


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