Renewables could aid Egypt's energy hub ambitions

Significance This is partly because of growth in gas supply and gas-fired generating capacity, but also owing to increased renewable energy capacity. Decreasing renewable energy costs, which leave onshore wind and solar photovoltaics now the cheapest forms of electricity generation, as well as concerns over climate change, may push Egypt further towards renewables. Impacts Tender activity for renewables may fall or face delays, owing to the level of surplus capacity. The combination of reduced power demand and growing renewables generation should support increased LNG exports. Guaranteed off-take agreements will remain critical to future investment.

Subject Declining costs of renewable energy. Significance Recent auctions and 'levelised cost of energy' (LCOE) studies show that the costs of wind and solar photovoltaic power are now competitive with fossil-fuel power generation in an increasing number of scenarios. Impacts Competitive renewable energy costs will encourage governments to adopt renewables as first-choice technologies. While positive for emissions, higher renewables adoption will slow growth in international fossil fuel trade to the detriment of exporters. Variable renewable energy growth will increase demand for system-balancing technologies, such as interconnectors and electricity storage.


Subject Renewable energy costs. Significance Renewable energy costs continue to fall in both absolute terms and relative to conventional energy sources. Impacts The switch to competitive bidding will see costs peak and then decline for governments that face high subsidy bills from feed-in tariffs. The portfolio of subsidy-free renewable energy options will grow in the next five years to include solar thermal energy and offshore wind. Technology advances will particularly reduce the cost over the next decade of building offshore wind capacity.


Subject Renewable energy in China. Significance The government has announced a 2.5-trillion-renminbi (363-billion-dollar) investment programme in renewable energy as part of its 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20). This continues the twin strategies of boosting the share of non-fossil fuel in the energy mix and supporting the growth and internationalisation of China's renewable energy manufacturing industry. Impacts China’s renewable energy capacity will grow, with a switch of emphasis to solar photovoltaics and solar thermal. The country’s manufacturing industry for renewable energy equipment is likely to thrive. There will be further corporate consolidation in the sector. Chinese companies will increase their dominance of the international markets for renewable energy equipment and project development.


Subject Morocco renewables. Significance Morocco showcased the progress it has made with the development of renewable energy at the COP21 climate change conference in Paris. At the conference, Morocco pledged to increase the renewable contribution to its electricity mix to 52% by 2030. The government has already set a target of 42% of its electricity generating capacity based on renewables by 2020: 14% each from hydro, wind and solar plants. Impacts Morocco can derive political and diplomatic benefits by projecting itself as a leading global force in developing clean energy. It will have an even better opportunity to do so when it hosts the COP22 meeting in Marrakech in November 2016. Morocco's renewable energy projects have been underpinned by subsidies, but these are likely to diminish as costs fall. Depending on technology, Morocco could export electricity generated from renewables to Europe and countries in north and west Africa.


Subject Renewable and coal energy in China. Significance Late last month, China upgraded its target for renewable energy and issued a draft plan for green energy certificates. This follows a new three-year anti-pollution plan issued in July. These strategies to clean up the energy sector are being pursued at the same time as the government is introducing competition in the power sector, planning a nationwide carbon trading market starting with the power sector and reinforcing its clean energy policy. Impacts Central government will press hard on local governments across northern China to fight air pollution. Natural gas imports will rises, especially once new LNG gasification and import pipeline capacity comes onstream over the coming year. A new 'green certificate' scheme should boost the share of renewable energy in China’s electricity supply. The continued growth of coal-fired generating capacity may blunt the influence of the green certificate scheme.


2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 402-426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aikaterini Papapostolou ◽  
Charikleia Karakosta ◽  
Vangelis Marinakis ◽  
Alexandros Flamos

Purpose The Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Union provides another element to cross-border cooperation by allowing Member States to fulfill their 2020 renewable energy sources (RES) targets by implementing joint projects in third countries through the cooperation mechanisms. The purpose of this paper is to assess the country risk, to support bilateral cooperation for RES electricity generation projects. Design/methodology/approach A multicriteria decision support methodology has been developed taking into account three evaluation parameters, namely, the investment framework, the social conditions and the energy and technological status. An additive value model has been constructed, and the UTilitès Additives (UTA) – UTA* (UTASTAR) disaggregation method has been implemented to infer the criteria weights. The obtained ranking of alternatives has been subjected to robustness analysis, and finally the proposed methodology has been applied to five North Africa countries, so as to draw key results. Findings The pilot application of the methodological approach proposed and the model developed was fully compatible with the decision maker’s ranking on a set of fictitious countries and facilitated the assessment of a country’s current situation with regards to its investment, social conditions and energy and technological status. The results regarding the five North African countries examined, indicated the country’s investment framework as the most important factor, from foreign investors’ perspective, affecting a country’s suitability for the implementation of RES projects through a cooperation mechanism and Morocco, as well as Tunisia as the countries with the most suitable conditions for a successful implementation of such projects. Originality/value To the best of authors’ knowledge, there are only very few studies trying to assess opportunities and risks emerging from the implementation of joint projects between European and third countries in the field of electricity generation from RES. There are even less studies using (UTASTAR) method on real-world decision-making problems, and almost none are dedicated to energy sector-related problems.


Subject Renewable energy. Significance Studies show that onshore wind and utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) cell technology are now the cheapest form of electricity generation in many regions, supporting their expansion at the expense of fossil fuels and nuclear power. Impacts Rising renewables capacity will displace fossil fuel power in oil and gas producing countries, underpinning their ability to export. Renewables will displace fossil fuel demand in oil and gas importing countries, reducing pollution and increasing consumer choice. Solutions will emerge to the lower reliability of renewables but initially it will boost gas-fired power.


Subject Vietnam's energy imports. Significance Authorities announced an immediate 8% hike in average retail electricity prices on March 20, partly in the hope of attracting private investment. With electricity demand rising, Vietnam is importing more energy commodities as well as focusing on domestic production. Impacts Coal-fired generation will remain the primary means of meeting future power demand. Developing LNG-to-power supply chains will increase natural gas’s share of the generation mix. Renewable energy development will offset the growing price exposure to international markets in energy commodities.


Significance The electricity sector is undergoing a radical shift in structure, owing to the build-out of variable sources of renewable energy, in pursuit of reductions in carbon emissions. On July 22, the French National Assembly gave final approval to an energy transition law that could provide further impetus to this process. The combination of rising renewable electricity generation and stagnant demand is shrinking the market for conventional thermal generation. This is undermining traditional utilities' revenues, asset values and existing business models. Impacts Under the new French law, renewables are to account for 40% of electricity generation and 32% of energy consumption by 2030. Wind and solar, the two main forms of new renewable generation, make up 11.6% of installed French generating capacity. The French government is pushing the transition to low-carbon energy partly because Paris hosts December's UN climate change conference. President Francois Hollande may also be seeking to appeal to the Green Party and its voters ahead of the 2017 presidential election.


Subject Energy improvements. Significance In the first quarter of 2018, the Dominican Republic launched construction of two renewable energy projects as part of its long-term plan to diversify away from over-reliance on heavy fuels. This forms a key part of the Pacto Electrico, which plans to transform the country’s energy sector over the next decade with the aim of improving the Dominican Republic’s investment competitiveness and boost long-term economic growth. Impacts Improved electricity generation could also benefit Haiti, which relies on the Dominican Republic for much of its supply. More reliable supply will boost business growth by improving productivity and investor sentiment. The Dominican Republic’s large economy gives it the opportunity to become a regional leader in renewables.


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