Egypt will be comfortable with slight price increases

Headline EGYPT: Cairo will be comfortable with small price rise

Significance The prime minister and finance minister, Aymane Benabderrahmane, has loaded some substantive policy reforms into the 2022 budget law, including a provision for reform of the subsidy system, revisions to the investment law and changes to income tax. Impacts There is a high risk that within the next five years there will be a slump in oil and gas prices. Algeria’s heavy reliance on hydrocarbons makes it particularly vulnerable once momentum builds up for global decarbonisation. Subsidy reform will entail price increases, even if they are gradually applied.


Subject Telecoms sector reform. Significance Ministers responsible for the telecoms sector have watered down the European Commission's proposals to reform the industry. Their moves coincide with a wave of consolidation among mobile operators at the national and regional levels, raising questions of whether the balance of EU policy towards the sector has swung against consumers or if these changes are necessary for the sector's long-term competitiveness. Impacts Consolidation will facilitate future investment, leaving the mobile telecoms sector better placed to develop next generation infrastructure. However, if recent mergers are any guide, most consumers can expect price increases in the short term. This may raise fears of a strengthening of incumbents' market power. National consolidation should be followed by European consolidation. However, this will only make sense if national governments agree to greater convergence of regulatory frameworks -- which looks unlikely.


Significance The clawback has helped it partially recover losses after a 29% crash on September 28, bringing total losses to around 70% this year. Yet doubts over CEO Ivan Glasenberg's recovery plan persist. Impacts Zambia's deteriorating fiscal imbalances due to declining copper revenues could force it to seek an IMF bailout. Asset sales by global mining majors will provide opportunities for smaller local players to increase their portfolios. Eskom's 150-million-dollar penalty claim against Glencore, accusing it of supplying poor quality coal, could add to costs. Some senior Glencore figures will likely use the low share price to increase their shareholding, following chairman Tony Hayward's lead.


Subject Outlook for the mining sector. Significance Encouraged by this year’s price increases for most of Peru’s mineral exports, the government is seeking to push ahead with plans to attract much-needed foreign investment into the mining industry. This will involve politically contentious moves to deregulate some of the cumbersome procedures that affect investors. Impacts Next year’s growth target of 4% is probably over-optimistic. Social and environmental protests will add to the costs of mining investment in Peru. Once opposition has emerged to projects, it will prove difficult to reverse. Climate change will accentuate problems of water shortage for mining operations.


Headline INDIA: Truckers’ strike may bring commodity price rise


2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Faharuddin Faharuddin ◽  
M. Yamin ◽  
Andy Mulyana ◽  
Y. Yunita

PurposeUsing cross-sectional household survey data, this paper aims to determine the impact of food price increases on poverty in Indonesia.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses the quadratic almost ideal demand system applied to the 2013 Indonesian household survey data. The impact of food price increase on household welfare is calculated using a welfare measure, compensating variation.FindingsThree food groups with the most outstanding price impact on poverty are rice, vegetables and fish were studied. The 20% increase in the price of each food group causes an increase in the headcount ratio by 1.360 points (rice), 0.737 points (vegetables) and 0.636 points (fish). Maintaining food price stability for these food groups is very important because the more price increases, the more impact on poverty. Food price policies in rural areas are also more critical than in urban areas because the impact of food price increases in rural areas is higher.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper does not consider the positive impact of rising food prices on food-producing households.Practical implicationsImplementing appropriate poverty alleviation policies through food policies for main food groups and social protection.Social implicationsPromoting rural development policies and agricultural growth.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical results regarding the impact of domestic food prices increase on poverty in Indonesia.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
António Manuel Cunha ◽  
Júlio Lobão

Purpose This paper aims to explore the effects of a surge in tourism short-term rentals (STR) on housing prices in municipalities within Portugal’s two largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Design/methodology/approach This study applies the difference-in-differences (DiD) methodology by using a feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimator in a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) equation model. Findings The results show that the liberalization of STR had a significant impact on housing prices in municipalities where a higher percentage of housing was transferred to tourism. This transfer led to a leftward shift in the housing supply and a consequent increase in housing prices. These price increases are much higher than those found in previous studies on the same subject. The authors also found that municipalities with more STR had low housing elasticities, which indicates that adjustments to the transfer of real estate from housing to tourism were made by increasing house prices, and not by increasing supply quantities. Practical implications The study suggests that an unforeseen consequence of allowing property owners to transfer the use of real estate from housing to other services (namely, tourism) was extreme housing price increases due to inelastic housing supply. Originality/value This is the first time that the DiD methodology has been applied in real estate markets using FGLS in a SUR equation model and the authors show that it produces more precise estimates than the baseline OLS FE. The authors also find evidence of a supply shock provoked by STR.


Significance More bailouts for Eskom and other cash-strapped SOEs come amid an ongoing exodus of senior executives. This has raised renewed questions about the willingness and ability of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration to implement the bold reforms needed to make SOEs financially and operationally sustainable. Impacts The increasingly politically charged nature of SOE leadership will make recruitment of competent officials and directors more difficult. New SOE bailouts may require further tax hikes and put pressure on the electricity regulator for even higher electricity price increases. Concerns about power supply will continue to weigh on investment and already subdued economic growth prospects.


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Headline INTERNATIONAL: OPEC talks could cap further oil upside


2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Cowie ◽  
Marewa Glover ◽  
Dudley Gentles

Purpose – Taxing tobacco is one of the most effective means to reduce smoking but concerns about the impact on poor smokers are a barrier. New Zealand resumed increasing tobacco taxes in April 2010. The paper hypothesised smokers would attempt to stop smoking and/or adapt, changing their smoking behaviours in response to price increases. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The authors conducted a door knock survey of smokers and recent ex-smokers who were home when visited. Participants (n=428) were from socioeconomically deprived neighbourhoods of Auckland with large proportions of Māori and Pacific Island people. Findings – Many smokers (66 per cent) attempted to quit an average of 3 times. More than 40 per cent stopped for at least 24 hours without intending to quit altogether, monthly or more. Consumption reduced among 40 per cent of participants, by an average 7.1 cigarettes daily. More than a fifth of participants switched to cheaper brands. Switching from factory made cigarettes to roll your own tobacco (6 per cent) or vice versa (5 per cent) was uncommon. Research limitations/implications – The method resulted in a low response rate. Tobacco tax is associated with reduced consumption and high levels of frequent quit attempts in socioeconomically deprived communities therefore our study supports tax increases as a means of reducing smoking. Originality/value – This is the first paper to investigate the effect of large recent New Zealand tobacco tax increases on low-income smokers’ adaptive behaviours.


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